[met'lhead matt]

Worst year I have seen in decades, caught more summer nooks this weekend the steelhead, in steelhead spots , I think the nooks will come in at or exceed forecast, but I do not think the steel or sockeye will meet forcast

 

[met'lhead matt]

This is correct to about 40". After that, girth takes over and it's MORE than a pound per inch. But 20 pound steel are SO rare that the overwhelming majority of us will never have to consider it.

Yes I agree, and getting more scarce by the year

 

[met'lhead matt]

Steelhead get to be 20 lbs, not by being released as smaller adults, but by spending more time in a productive ocean. That's the problem (sick ocean), along with fewer steelhead returning as adults overall. FWIW, repeat returning steelhead are usually hens and don't gain much weight year-to-year because the journeys take so much energy.

I'll add that, as far as CR summer steelhead that would reach 20 lbs, they'd be mostly Idaho B-run fish which would stand to increase about 3-4 X if the Snake River 4 lower dams came out. It's curious to me that fishermen oppose that, as seen on that other thread....

I have caught a few toads, and on more then one occasion had scale samples done, and all my toads, had one thing in common, they came back as one salt fish, and went back out only to come back 4 years later, our biggest did this and had 4 return years, total. Fish that make it back out, are hardly any bigger the next return year. Then their peak weight. So let the little jack steelhead swim free, may be your next memory

 

[met'lhead matt]

Less than a year ago, you seemed to be all for catching and keeping all that was allowed and no thought to releasing anything that might make it out for another try. Now there are fewer yet steelhead: are you changing your mind? Seems to me like you thought back then that a hundred thousand A-B steelhead back to Idaho was a great thing (even though 4 hundred thousand a year was an average count in the 80's and 90's) and there were still B-runs to have a legitimate chance at catching one. So when was the last one you caught? I would caution believing any statistic the states offer on fish plentifulness' as the methods for garnering fish amounts is laughable, and remember that statistics are easy to manipulate in support of whatever position you may hold. Especially when it comes to CR salmonoid numbers.

Not changing my mind, a 12lb fish is always going to be a 12lb or close to it, no matter how often it returns, and as far as me keeping my limit of Hatchery steelhead, they are meant to be kept, they are not planting the numbers they use to plant, research NOAA and TU lawsuits over wild steelhead. This is how they can predict lower returns, don’t plant them and they won’t come back. Hence why the Wild component is returning at a 93% rate of the 10 year avg but the hatchery component is lagging at 62%. B runs get to swim free, after 8/1. Average in the 80’s and 90’s was closer to 200k at the river mouth, best years where from 2001-2011 with a couple bumper years and an average over 300k. Last year was not far off the 80’s and 90’s average, lower but within 14%. The best 10 year period is the one above, other then that period the 10 year average is mid 200k or below for last 80 years, not about letting them go, it is about planting them, more so

 

[met'lhead matt]

Yes, but instead of using statistics from this century, go back to the 60's thru 90's. 200 thousand of close enough was an A run # and a B-run #. I agree wholeheartedly that we either got to plant way more and open more hatcheries or quit fishing. When was the last time you visited a river/creek in the line of; say the Lewis & Clark river that flows into the CR near Astoria/Seaside during spawning season and smelled the delightful smell of rotting fish along the creek bank or Scappoose and Mill creeks?. It stunk big time, now smells not at all nowadays.
With the lack of current interest in USA grown wheat vs Ukraine or Russian or maybe even Chineese wheat, maybe the whole issue about Snake River dams being so important for commerce could be put to rest. Maybe it will become Salmon over wheat kernels finally. All I can say is my Dad, a vehement Salmon fisherman, hauled a lot of equipment to Bridgeport when the dam with no fish ladder was ongoing so, maybe I got no right to comment on any of this, but I have lived it, bad and good.

Like I mentioned above the glory years all the way back to 1930 did not hold a candle to 2001-2011. The 50’s thru 90’s where comparable to last year to the river mouth.

 

[met'lhead matt]

Based on what Matt posted above, if fishing was that much better 50 yrs ago, it wasn't because runs were that much better.

Blame it on reduced plants? Unless the DART site is pure fiction, plants are down a little, like from 15 million to 14 million.

Believe what you want. Blame who you want. It's the American way.

The numbers I fished on in the 80’s 90’s till present have still produced great days on average, this is my worst year since the 80’s. I keep a log of every trip. There was nothing like 2001-2015. Magical. We need to focus on releases, water outflows, barging, etc during those magical years. Steelhead have very high success when being barged, Salmon not so much. Might be better for salmon, if the stocks where not mixed in the barges, The Ocean conditions are out of our control. What I find strange, is no jacks to use in calculations, all they can go by is plants and historical return percentages, really. And they predicted a bad year this year after last years well above return over prediction. So they know something they are not telling us. Maybe the plant numbers were not as advertised.

 

[met'lhead matt]

I agree with the ocean, but they found something to eat last year, I also think our snow pack in Washington plays a role, lower snow pack equals a warmer river and increased predication . Maybe

 

[met'lhead matt]

I agree, even though I had much success last year, as I do most years those 2001-2011 years where off the hook, do not even have to work hard to get bit, although this year we are having to work hard to get our fish, I would be surprised if we break 75k over the wall

 

[met'lhead matt]

View attachment 1068576

This little beauty (clear uv hawken wild wing) has been pretty darn good for our team. Paired up with Loonie Coonies of course.

I would say lights out fishing, Now we have passed the 10yr average for both total and wild, and what I am hearing and seeing in the lower river, the next 3 weeks counts may blow the 10 year out of the water, and maybe last years numbers, Skamania where down, but now it is turning around. just an observation

 

[met'lhead matt]

How are you fishing that set up?

On a dropper, just like a SNG, Hawkin Moon Jelly UV #13

 

[met'lhead matt]

Ugly weather on the river this morning. Somehow I got-r-done. 1 sockeye finally stuck and another steelhead shortly there after. My buddy Joe still on the river and hasn't got bit yet. I forgot to ask the checker how many she counted. The wife says we have enough fish to last till April and I'm being put in TIMEOUT and done for the year. Told her I'm still going to do at least 1 day down at Buoy 10 for Coho when we get back from Europe

I fished Kwiks with sardine wrap for 3 hours for Chinook and I actually had a take down around 7am then hours of nothing so tossed out the spin n glo rod for steelhead and sockeye. 20 mins later 2 fish in the bleed bucket at once.
Terrible wind, cloudy and 3 -4 ft. rollers all morning. Would have liked to gone out with a chinook to end the year but it is what it is

View attachment 1068639

Gonna miss those plugs reports, where you headed to in Europe, we are going to Ireland for 3 weeks in Sept

 

[met'lhead matt]

Great Idea!!!
My favorite river is the Danube River. It'[s the second-longest in all Europe. It flows through Central and Southeastern Europe, from the Black Forest of Germany south through the Danube Delta in Romania into the Black Sea. It is like 3 times the size of the Columbia here at Longview. This is me in my favorite spot. I'm standing on the Ukraine side and that is Romania across on the opposite shore. No lic. required but you need to have your passport on you to prove your not from Romania

View attachment 1068646

I have never fished it, but about every three years we do the Viking River Christmas cruise on the Danube or the Rhine, Awesome place at Christmas, could not believe the amount of geese we saw in Slovakia.

 

[met'lhead matt]

Couple of notes about it. Not sure if they matter but...
1. When fished next to rocks it doesn't have the buoyancy of a sng so it can get pinned. I like a corkie or two to help with that.
2. It pushed a lot more water than a sng so maybe that helps with a vibration or something to trigger a strike.

All I know is that it's dang effective and I'll keep one in the water from now on.
Unlike the @metalheadmatt sng which can be relegated to the shelf!

That red hot tiger is money on my rod. You might as well give me all your hand me downs🤪

 

[met'lhead matt]

Gonna have to try one of these this weekend, never seen UV clear winged SNG’s

 

[met'lhead matt]

Bonneville counts are interesting. Is the run early but small as forecasted, or hopefully better than 10 year average? You lower river guys are giving me hope it will be the second.

The next couple weeks should clear things up.

It appears to me the scamania portion was lacking, but the A portions seems well represented, I bet in next week we surpass last years total to date

 

[met'lhead matt]

Fishing was gooood Friday

 

[met'lhead matt]

Fishing was goood, weeds at start of tide present, but they where controllable with continued checking of gear

 

[met'lhead matt]

And the fact sheet, is out the highest A&B total to date in the last 10, like I mentioned earlier, the Skamania portion fell on it’s nose this year, otherwise we would be low to mid40k to date, and my observation and reports I hear, say good things for next few weeks counts. My new prediction, is double the pre season forecast, hoping, 135% of 10 year as of today, even with skamania nose dive

 

[met'lhead matt]

Up to 138% of the 10 year average and within 2k of last years run, probably surpass it by Monday, all with a lack luster Skamania showing. “A” showing well above prediction… Makes you wonder why the wild component is tracking higher then average, but the clipped are lagging, and they predicted a poor run. They knew something was smelly, like plants below advertised possibly

 

[met'lhead matt]

where do you find the fact sheet?

where do you find the fact sheet?

ODFW summer fact sheet #4. And it reads, A and B are the highest to date on last 10 years.