I just sent my 2020 IRA allocation last week but it won't post until later this week. Hoping I won't miss the bounce by the time I can buy.

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I think Royal Dutch Shell looks like a pretty good buy right now.

 

Agree. The next oil issue and the stock will move way up imo. May take a couple years but I may consider.

 

Nephew works at local grocery store that caters to green crowd.

They had some insane number on soap, hand wash tp etc. Like 89k in one shift.

Yesterday at FM, a lady in front of me has a CART full of TP. Most volume buyers will have a better deal than Freddies. And Charmin aint the lowest price point, so I assumed it was for personal use and not business/commercial.

 

Yesterday at FM, a lady in front of me has a CART full of TP. Most volume buyers will have a better deal than Freddies. And Charmin aint the lowest price point, so I assumed it was for personal use and not business/commercial.

Please don't squeeze the Charmin!

Mr Whipple

 

I am hoping for a big property panic. :meme: I have been preparing for that for some time.:thisbig: looks like the perfect storm is brewing.

 

Picked up some Disney and American Tower.


PS: might be a dead cat bounce? I expect to see volatility for a while longer.

 

X2

I am gonna wait a bit longer

 

And today is the largest DOW increase EVER!

 

I was also going to say dead cat bounce, seems likely a future panic will occur as more deaths start occurring nation wide. Hard to predict though.

 

Ya. I'm still holding a lot of cash and I'm normally 100% invested. Methinks there will be more buying opportunities not too far down the road.

 

Visa everybody shopping at home

 

I don't trust this rally we had today at all.

Don, I like the cell tower companies also. I went with Crown Castle instead of American Tower a while back. Crown Castle was supposed to be better positioned for the roll out of 5G and its dividend was a little better. But I like them both.

 

I'll check it out. AMT did me good over the last three months until I bailed right after it topped. Stuck a toe back in today.

 

I added a couple of utilities on Friday. After today, both up about 10% over my buy. Decent dividends to protect the downside.

 

Market going down after Fed announces emergency .5% rate cut. Not good! :bricks:

 

I kinda wish the Fed would have stayed out of it. Dropping the rate a half point is signaling everyone that they think things are going to get much worse. Had they done nothing today I feel like we might have continued yesterday's upswing.

To quote myself from last week: if you keep stabbing it with knives of course it's going to die.

 

Agree the half point was a bit too aggressive. But yesterday's bounce was on the expectation of a cut - IMHO. But, looks like the cat is coming back down to earth today. Tippy-toe, not time to buy with both hands.

 

My first reaction to the Fed's dramatic action was similar to you guys.

There is another possibility though. The Fed usually has information that isn't usually widely available. It is possible that they are reacting to information we, and even most professionals, are not yet aware off. Not saying that is %100 percent the case. Just something to keep in the back of your mind if you are looking for the bottom of this market.

 

Did the Fed drop rates simply because of the market volatility recently?

Kinda thought they were more big picture than that.

 

Powell isn't the sharpest tool in the drawer.

 

The constant phrase "Strong Economy" isnt really true. Average is a better term. Since WW II our average GDP growth rate is 2.3%. It was 2.9% in 2018 which was Strong and 2.3% in 2019 which was average. Consensus pre virus forecast is 1.8%.

The 50 PB cut looks a little desperate.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/

 

I just have a small account but I doubled my monthly contribution when it dipped. Hope I made the right choice, if I messed up well at least I still have 30 years before I retire.


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I employ a "stock picker" who's not very smart, but is very cheap.
Vanguard VTI ETF.

 

“I'm pretty sure there is something beyond that and beyond the economic fear of the spreading corona virus . I've been reading and hearing that wall street is very highly leveraged right now. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that the rapid market sell off last week and the prospect of a slow down in the economy ( and a real slow down in the world economy) has created some type of a credit or liquidity crisis and the Fed is stepping in.“

Let’s use Boeing as an example of what’s been going on in the Fortune 500. Boeing has been buying its stock back via mostly cash and some borrowing because money is essentially free from the banks. Why? to drive up the price of its stock. Why would they want to drive up the price of the stock, Because the executives have massive stock options and Wall Street gets rewarded. Boeing has a hiccup and has to go to 10 banks and borrow $12 billion. Now the market dips 12% and cash is tight because of buybacks and global business has slowed prior to the corona virus. Now it’s really going to slow down. The Fortune 500 speed dials the banks to ensure their credit lines and the weaker are exercising those lines. The fed starts injecting like a mad man. Warren Buffet is sitting on a pile of cash drooling right now. the travel industry looking at a financial nightmare for quite awhile. Combined with the 737 max Boeing could be in big trouble. They are not alone.

 

Boeing spent 45 Billion on stock buy backs. They would have been much better off spending the money on R&D. In particular coming up with a new single aisle airplane to replace the 737 which has been around since 1968!

Buy backs are great for shareholders. But at the end of the day all you are doing is reducing capital, increasing debt, leverage and making it more risky company with less capital cushion for hard times..

Their problem is the large number of top execs that came from General Electric and the Jack Welch school of management. The GE people emphasize shareholder value etc. Shareholders have done very well. But the GE folks are bean counters not engineers. They cut expenses on everything including R&D. There was a famous quote around 2001 from one the GE people "We are going to change Boeing from an engineering company to a cost efficient production company". Looks like they over did it! If I had any guts I'd short the damn thing.

 

I would sell Clorox and take what profit you can then buy Kroger.

 

PE's were way too high so I upped my 401 cash at year's end. Just couldn't go on like that forever.I think the corporate tax cut money was used for buy backs and dividends, which was additional juice for the market.
Gonna be a bumpy ride. I have liked utilities too, and they have been more resilient, local PGE (POR) and Next Era Energy (NEE) has way pout performed most utilities, and the Vanguard Sector Utility ETF.
Speaking of shopping, bought Kroger stock (own Freddies and a bunch of others) awhile back and it was up almost 8% today on earnings. Still valued fairly good vs the S&P imo with a 2%yield.
IF I had 30 years left I'd buy some ETF's on these huge dips, but don't listen to me, lol. Ii'm still hoping last Friday was bottom, but now, wouldn't bet on it. As I said, imo it may be a long time before we see another all time high.

 

Boeing could be broken up into 6 or 7 companies. People with Boeing pensions have to be sitting on needles. If it’s like any other company their pension is 40 to 60% under funded.

 

Funny, I sold most of my CLX the other day. What's the big deal? I mean chlorine bleach is chlorine bleach, right? Anyway, probably way more sick people than we know of. I read March Madness might be played in empty stadiums, several teams canceling travel to Seattle for various events... but we'll get through this.How we dont have some kind of recession from all this, seeming kinda unlikely. Just didn't forsee it happening this way, so fast.
Do the elbow bump! Enough hand shaking for now, lol.

 

Hope this link works. Article today from NY Times, interview with Boeing CEO. About what you would expect...only worse


I kind of wonder how many other firms have these kind of problems, hidden by the economy.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busine...ng-aerospace/its-more-than-i-imagined-boeings-new-ceo-confronts-its-challenges/

 

Boeing seems pretty unique in such a highly consolidated industry.

Thoughtful article on buying this correction.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330242-time-to-buy-coronavirus-stock-market

 

bought some VOO (sp500 index vanguard)