Francis, what do you see on that graph that would lead you to make that prediction? Or are you basing it on lower estuary observations? That passage graph doesn’t lead to a lot of optimism for upgrades.

 

The biggest surge over the wall is yet to come.

1) Still a LOT of URB's coming out of Westport WA.
2) Tens of thousands of fish were acclimating to warm water in the estuary each day during my two week stay.
3) Tongue Point fished for NINE days straight... UNHEARD of on my decades in the estuary... right up to my last day on the 4th.
4) Cathlamet and Longview really just turning on the past few days, and closing today.
5) Gillnet catches in Zones 4 and 5 are much more reflective of the true volume of fish still in transit BELOW the first wall... making their way upriver with purpose and really not stopping to bite in the entrenched rec fisheries above TP until just the past few days.

I remain highly OPTIMISTIC that the run is BIG!

 

I agree with the BPH run. Usually they are thick near the dam by now but every critter I’ve seen heretofore had a fin. For @eyeFISH, how far up river do you think the thermo barrier reaches?

 

TP/Miller/Altoona zone seemed to stop them in their tracks til they got acclimated.

 

This may be an ignorant question, but is there data recording how long it takes a chinook take to go from entering the estuary to over Bonneville?

 

It is highly variable... depending on river flows and temps (and in the spring, turbidity). Also at what point in the run the fish enters the river. The early birds do more staging in the estuary. Later-arriving fish don't have time to waste... and they GO GO GO.

I have seen pics of Drano fish with sea lice. Think about that for a moment.

 

Just for fun I looked up average temperatures at Bonneville Bradford Island ladder on Aug 31-Sep 2 for 2016-2025. Water temperature in 2025 is the highest of most of these years by at last a degree of two. I compared temperature to date of peak count and 50% passage to see if there was a relationship to temp vs counts. It's weak at best. Passage/counts timing by date probably has more to do with strength of BPH vs URB run as the tules peak nearly a week earlier than URBs.

 

Can you look up Ave Temp in 2015? That was a hot year.

Just for fun I looked up average temperatures at Bonneville Bradford Island ladder on Aug 31-Sep 2 for 2016-2025. Water temperature in 2025 is the highest of most of these years by at last a degree of two. I compared temperature to date of peak count and 50% passage to see if there was a relationship to temp vs counts. It's weak at best. Passage/counts timing by date probably has more to do with strength of BPH vs URB run as the tules peak nearly a week earlier than URBs.

View attachment 1073480

 

This weeks going to be exciting as river temps plummet.

 

Lotsa URB's poised to make their ascent over the wall this week! Let there be KINGS!

 

OK.... just looked at fpc.org. Another surge of 18K y'day. Looking fwd to the first of many 20K+ daily counts.

 

Doc nailed it +1 of 20,000 plus a day. Good stuff 🍺 Whats it gonna take to get the river back open for everybody? It was mentioned Saturday at the ramp that there was a meeting scheduled this week? Warrior rock to the coast needs to be unleashed to spread out the pressure. It will also definitely help with the accidents which there’s been way too many of this year. Tight lines/be safe amigos

 

I believe the technical advisory committee meets every monday. Let's hope that numbers like 23k chinook and 4300 coho help boost confidence in the run and they can open things up.

There were still a bunch of kings in the estuary yesterday. It makes zero sense to me that coho anglers in the estuary have to release clipped kings right now.

 

I believe the technical advisory committee meets every monday. Let's hope that numbers like 23k chinook and 4300 coho help boost confidence in the run and they can open things up.

There were still a bunch of kings in the estuary yesterday. It makes zero sense to me that coho anglers in the estuary have to release clipped kings right now.

I agree that it doesn't seem right to have to let any hatchery produced fish go. But at least you have the opportunity to fish. Some of us are confined to sections of the river that are currently closed to all salmon/steelhead fishing. How does that make sense? Are those participating in the B10 fishery that much better at targeting coho when there are chinook around? Your post above doesn't seem to indicate so. I'd be content to try and sift through a few chinook to try and scratch out a coho limit right now. It's better than nothing.

I hope everyone at the coast and estuary is right, and that there are a slug of fish still waiting to come up the river. But if that is true, my guess is the commercial guys are going to make a killing this year in the river.

 

With the heat we fished out of Westport the last week of August looking for biters. We had a wfo bite mooching kings in 260 ft of water. It was some of the best late August fishing I have ever seen in the ocean😳There’s still a lot of purple backs out there and some good fishing still to come 🙏

 

The first runsize update in the Fact Sheets from TAC for Chinook passing Bonneville Dam ranged between Sep 10 (2o24) and Sep 18 (2018) for years 2018-2024. In the big year ,2015, the run size update occurred on Sep 14. I would expect that the first update for 2025 will occur next week. TAC likes to see a clear peak in counts and descending number before updating the run size. The runszie cannot be updated for lower river Chinook.

 

The ocean was epic this year, B10 was epic.

Tongue point up isn't fishing near as well as last year. Water temps and river levels play a part in that I think.

What worries me is that I can't remember a late run that was huge. I'm hoping I'm wrong but I think that the forecast is about right on chinook, and low on coho.

 

The ocean was epic this year, B10 was epic.

Tongue point up isn't fishing near as well as last year. Water temps and river levels play a part in that I think.

What worries me is that I can't remember a late run that was huge. I'm hoping I'm wrong but I think that the forecast is about right on chinook, and low on coho.

It's not "late" yet. We just had the best numbers of the fall and we're still a couple days short of the ten year average peak.

 

The ******* will take care of those coho, fin and all, day after day after day of kill nets.

 

The *** will take care of those coho, fin and all, day after day after day of kill nets.

Last year the nets took just under 9,000 Coho. 5,000 of them during the mark select tangle net fishery.

 

Yes.

 

 

Show the graph for McNary dam if you want to be depressed.

 

Late run is a small run. Whether held up or not. No one likes to be late to the party.

 

LATE? Why would I doubt the evidence of my own eyes? Peak timing looks awfully close to the 10 yr avg.

While most of the charter fleet is targeting tuna on these flat ocean days, beautiful URB’s are still being caught out of W’port by the handful of boats still pursuing them. It ain’t over yet.

 

LATE? Why would I doubt the evidence of my own eyes? Peak timing looks awfully close to the 10 yr avg.

While most of the charter fleet is targeting tuna on these flat ocean days, beautiful URB’s are still being caught out of W’port by the handful of boats still pursuing them. It ain’t over yet.

View attachment 1073835

Did they reopen the ocean in that area or is Westport far enough North its not part of that?

 

At least for Fall Chinook passing Bonneville, it doesn't appear that "big or small" run size isn't linked very well with run timing. Counts now and next few days will determine whether run matches well with forecast for URB and BPH stocks.

 

I can’t begin to imagine how good the catching must be above Bonny for the astute anglers who have moved upriver.

 

292,000 over the dam as of 9-12. Gonna need a big day to make 700k estimate.

52,000 jacks over the dam as well.

Is that number high?

 

If passage is at about 50%, it should end up about #5 of the last 25 yrs, so, pretty good.

 

I'm aware (Outside of 2013-2015 timeline) that it's a solid return.

I think pre season estimate was 700k fish. Dunno what impacts are, or run updates will be. If return estimate goes down, dunno if there's enough wilds left to allow more harvest. The managers can do their deal, and we will get what is given.

Question is, if 52k jacks a big number for mid season? Seems high to me.

 

I'm aware (Outside of 2013-2015 timeline) that it's a solid return.

I think pre season estimate was 700k fish. Dunno what impacts are, or run updates will be. If return estimate goes down, dunno if there's enough wilds left to allow more harvest. The managers can do their deal, and we will get what is given.

Question is, if 52k jacks a big number for mid season? Seems high to me.

See post #45. If they stop right now 52k is better than ten of the last 24 yrs. If they make 60k (a near certainty) it will be better than 14 of 24.

 

You can get quick comparison of counts this year vs last, 10 yr ave here

https://www.fpc.org/web/apps/adultsalmon/R_yeartodatecomparisontable_results.php

 

The Drop off in Chinook counts that last couple days at Bonnie is disappointing. Yes, there could be another spike in counts and double peaks have happened in the past. But to have a peak count after Sep 12 would be a rarity. It occurred in 2004, 2012 and 2019 on sep 13-14. Percent of run passing Bonne through Sep 12 is above 50% on average. Projection of a final count using the 2025 cumulative count of 292.9K through Sep 12 is around 450K slightly less than last years final. The preseason river mouth forecast for FCh stocks above Bonn (URB/PUB, BPH) in 2025 was a little higher than in 2024 (577k vs 526K in 2024). The increase was in the BPH stock forecast.

Even though river temps are still running higher than average which may have delayed migration, it may be beyond the time to reasonably say there's a bunch of fish still waiting in the ocean. A late run timing like in 2015,19 would get the projection to better match the forecast. A spike in counts is badly needed. Never say never though.

 

My experience fishing the last 2 weeks is that there are not a lot of chinooks coming. Compared to previous years there are just not many salmon on the screen. I know 1 guys fish finder isn’t exactly science but there aren’t many chinook around right now.