Well if they are so worried about escapement why do they allow this to continue with the non tribal lower river commercial fishery...........Two extra nights earlier with 8" mesh zones 4 & 5 (anything goes including Steelhead kill and non clipped Coho) also tangle nets three nights a week. Zones 1-3. Meanwhile sports fishers are off the river. Here's the "recorded" catch so far for part of this month.

https://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/docs/2025/Zones%20D%201-5_Late-Fall_2025.pdf

 

I share your concern. Passage at the upper dams has been delayed, and does appear short. Low jack counts are also worrisome. But, adults atThe Dalles are up to 70% of last year and 77% of the ten year, and there are still decent numbers at Bonny. Hopefully McNary will follow suit. Cup half full, target escapement at McN (60k) has been exceeded (71k to date) and will keep going up.

 

Unfortunately that escapement number is way lower than it needs to be. It was set before some of the snake river programs really got going and for a different time at the Reach. I believe that will be renegotiated soon.

 

Not that the compact cares or frankly most folks here but we are around 50% of the 10 year average at Mcnary. The hanford URB'S are in trouble and have been for some time.
Sure would be nice if there was more consideration for them. I don't hardly even fish down there anymore so this has nothing to do with take for me.

 

Crack away at my reading comprehension Jim, I admit it's not the best when DFW leaves so much to question.
I didn't see anything that pointed out we are out of UR compacts unless it was the statement that recreational fishing was left out of the info (per the post.)
There was doubtful potential for an extension and I too doubt we get one based on the numbers. I can however, see another 5% could happen with the river closing Oct 1. (even if no recreational take is considered). More so if it were considered I'd think... They're still counting over 2K a day. 15k doesn't seem impossible.
But, what am I missing/did I miss?

G-man .. the "5%" shortfall refers to the total run size at the end of the season will be 5% below the forecast. It's not that 5% of the run might show up in the next few weeks or that the river closing Oct 1 has anything to do with this.

 

G man, I don't think you have much understanding of how this thing is managed, pretty much at all. If you don't understand what they wrote about URBS constraining us, I'm not sure how to help you?

Seriously.

It used to be tules, now it's URBs. Do you get that at all?

I'm not trying to pick on you, you seem genuinely interested, but you don't seem to have much of an understanding of what is going on management wise?

Honestly it appears that things fished pretty close to their models this year and they got it pretty right. The run is tracking a little short of model, so no extension right now. Hopefully a mix of factors allow them to open some upriver fisheries next week.

 

Tnx for the explanation Jim and Darth. I half figured this was akin to the tules "thing" they pulled a few years ago but never guessed it would continue with URB's. Their reasoning back then didn't make sense either although I "sort of" understood why they made their decision.
You are correct, I don't have an understanding of fishery management and have trouble understanding their gibberish. That's exactly why I ask questions and seek help understanding them. I too am not trying to be difficult, I just like to debate/banter on what the rules are saying. I also agree that my reading comprehension is not great but how do I know about this stuff unless I ask? Besides that, I honestly don't believe I'm the only one that doesn't "get" what they say or why, how they make decisions/give reason. I don't mind good debate but ridicule/contention for asking is aggravating. I'm not stupid, ignorant nor unwilling to understand, I just like to understand reasoning, right or wrong. Always have... always will.
I know there's some really knowledgeable guys out there who have the whits to figure out what is being said and I really do appreciate them sharing their knowledge! I am not (typically) a contentious guy but I do ask a lot of questions to gain facts/knowledge on the matter. As you said... I am genuinely interested and it's pretty obvious I'm not afraid to ask questions and I do.
So if you don't mind me asking questions, sharing reasoning, there's more "info" I don't get....
1. If the quota/forecast for URB's is already decided to be 5% short how does future buoy 10 coho fishing affect that?
2. Why are they still allowing (URB) Chinook retention up river if the forecasted quota is short?
3. It seems (by dam counts) there's more (URB by definition) Chinook being counted so why have they "predetermined" there's a 5% shortfall when Chinook are still being counted yet they're still allowing retention? That just doesn't add up in my mind.

 

But, what am I missing/did I miss?

"This year’s fisheries are URB limited, and any immediate/additional Chinook retention time could jeopardize the coho fisheries that were planned preseason."

That was right in the middle of what he posted, and they elaborate further with numbers and reasoning. I'm actually impressed that they sent that to advisors and glad the advisors shared it publicly so everyone can see the reasoning.

Hopefully they can re-open some upriver opportunity next week.

 

Jim... I read (just as you did) that the forecast was limited to URB's (as noted in the post to Doc). and as far as I can tell, my reading comprehension matches yours.
Moving on... Since the retention of Chinook is now closed in the lower river, doesn't that give credence to the possibility 5% more Chinook (URB's) could cross the wall and get counted (added to the missing ~15K to make up 100% of the forecast?) I also read an extension wasn't given much potential. I understand/concur with that (based on the forecasted number at 5% or ~15Kfish). I too am glad they at least gave us, made "updated numbers" available. I'm just uncertain/doubtful of their reasoning. Here's why...
Continuing the post by CCW he wrote: "This projection (of forecasted numbers I presume) includes the URBs expected for the on-going Buoy 10 coho fishery and the scheduled coho re-opening in upstream waters on October 1."
As for buoy 10 coho being a concern in the upper river Chinook return is beyond me (especially since Chinook retention in the lower river was closed Sept 21 and most coho are going to lower river hatcheries). Are they concerned for the mortality of URB Chinook releases during the rest of the coho season in the buoy 10 area? just how many Chinook are being released? Frankly, I'm not hearing of that many, if any. Perhaps with the "upper river" opening Oct 1, they figure coho returns will somehow interfere with Chinook returns.
Their reasoning (from what I gather from their info) isn't what I call definitive or reasonable.

 

Crack away at my reading comprehension Jim, I admit it's not the best when DFW leaves so much to question.
I didn't see anything that pointed out we are out of UR compacts unless it was the statement that recreational fishing was left out of the info (per the post.)
There was doubtful potential for an extension and I too doubt we get one based on the numbers. I can however, see another 5% could happen with the river closing Oct 1. (even if no recreational take is considered). More so if it were considered I'd think... They're still counting over 2K a day. 15k doesn't seem impossible.
But, what am I missing/did I miss?

 

I'd say so Doc and that's just the URB count (per the advisory). Another 5% shouldn't be that tough to achieve but I do get why there's no extension.

We are out of upriver impacts as stated in the information CCW posted.

Careful or someone might make a crack about reading comprehension...

 

I'd say so Doc and that's just the URB count (per the advisory). Another 5% shouldn't be that tough to achieve but I do get why there's no extension.

URB's are the only stock of interest for Team eyeFISH.

 

Modify that a bit.....URB's are the only stock of pursuit for Team eye fish. If tules were the pinch point for continued fishing, they'd be the stock of interest.

 

While early numbers had me feeling more optimistic, that updated runsize is over 95% of forecast... priddy'DAM'good if ya ask me.

 

I'd say so Doc and that's just the URB count (per the advisory). Another 5% shouldn't be that tough to achieve but I do get why there's no extension.

 

Here’s what I received yesterday:

“Good day Recreational Advisors,

You may have noticed that the hearing announcement did not include recreational fisheries. This is due to current catch estimates for the LCR and the upstream of Bonneville recreational fisheries for the re-opener/extension being similar to staff catch projections shared at last week’s hearing. The projected URB harvest rate (HR) by the recreational fishery sector is approximately 10.01% HR as compared to staff’s projection last week during the Compact Hearing of 9.87% URB HR. This projection includes the URBs expected for the on-going Buoy 10 coho fishery and the scheduled coho re-opening in upstream waters on October 1.



This year’s fisheries are URB limited, and any immediate/additional Chinook retention time could jeopardize the coho fisheries that were planned preseason.



TAC’s current URB abundance of 313,300 fish is below both the pre-season forecast (328,100 fish) and last year’s post-season estimate (318,089 fish). Per the preseason plan: Harvest, season structures, and ESA impacts accrued will be influenced by in-season abundance estimates for upriver stocks/species and stock-specific harvest rates in each respective fishery. The potential for additional harvest opportunities will be based on in-season fishery catch estimates, abundance expectations, allowable ESA impact estimates, and policy guidance/objectives.



Staff will review catch estimates and Chinook stock composition of remaining fisheries and will determine if additional opportunities exist within current management guidelines. We hope this update helped you understand the current status of the fisheries and why there was not a consideration this week for additional recreational fishing opportunity.”

 

What are odds we see more chinook opportunity. Bonneville dam counts going down quickly and coho numbers disappointing overall so far. Seems like maybe this isn't the big run guys hoped for but rather that a whole lot of salmon kegged up in the estuary this year. Overall river fishing this has been the worst year for us in many years.

 

To bad we can't fish below warrior rock today, I've had enough of the deadline show.

 

I agree no place for a solo fisherman, not fun.

 

Bobs sporting goods❤ posted a few minutes ago on Facebook that the recommendation is effective 18- 21st…game on/tight lines amigos

 

Was a final decision regarding an opener handed down? Saw the recommendations.

 

TAC downgraded the run by 13%, but I think it is pretty obvious the run is late this year. The bright stock fish are supposed to be 75% complete, if they are only 70% complete than it adds over 20k fish. Based on the prior year drop in counts, if we have a few more days like today, forecast will change.

 

Meanwhile in Idaho..

F&G to close unclipped adult fall Chinook salmon harvest Sept. 19

Idaho Fish and Game is closing harvest of unclipped adult fall Chinook salmon statewide beginning Friday, Sept. 19 through Friday, Sept. 26. During this period, fisheries for adipose-clipped fall chinook will remain open, but all unclipped adult fall Chinook salmon must be released.

idfg.idaho.gov

 

WOOP WOOP, river wide reopening recomended through Sunday!

 

I bet the girl nets go back in Thursday night or Sunday night or both.

 

Where does the fact sheet get published?

 

I usually watch this one:

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/09-17-25-fall-fact-sheet-no-4b.pdf

 

My sense is we'll get a small extension and then they'll reevaluate and likely open it up for October (when there's significantly less fish around and much less pressure, though the fishing can still be very good).

 

And that they did. Extended for 4 more days.

 

The 947 am fact sheet will be captivating.

 

And the decision is................................................. (I'm dying to know) LOLOL

 

🤞

 

 

So what I'm looking for is an email today announcing a compact meeting tomorrow....from what I recall, they meet on Wednesdays. My instinct is if we don't get a notice today for tomorrow, the chance of extending the season drops significantly.

Is anyone looking for or thinking the same thing?

See 2 posts up. Wednesday Compact

 

No lack of kings in the ocean still…this weekend was 🔥…let the whole river fish💯