Thanks for ALL the Hard work 👍🏻👍🏻

 

I was on a 5 day bear hunt and when I got back found out the ODFW seed numbers were released. So most of the weekend was spent getting this out there ASAP. Couldn't wait because the value goes down the closer we get to ODFWs official results. Eyes are burning a bit from staring at the computer screen for so long. Back to the cubicle, wage slavery tomorrow though. Grind don't quit.

 

Nice tool, good job.

 

Small piece of feedback - it seems to only take the random draw into account if you enter "0" points. Once you go above that it only looks at the preference point draw.

Thanks for the info!

 

.

 

Thank you.

 

It’s giving me some false hope on my tag.

I’m in one of those one behind highest needed point groups and Im quite a ways (over 1M) outside the probability range of app numbers but it says I’m likely

 

Used a similar process last year it said my odds were zero to none for draw, when the drawing was complete i ended up with a deer and elk tag.🤷‍♂️

 

Interesting! I put in for a deer tag I have very very low odds of drawing, with the thought that I'd just get a point and hunt the general season, but according to this prediction I am likely to draw. We shall see! Thanks for your work to put this together.

 

That's awesome man!

 

That's awesome! Looks like setup for residents, only, at this point? I didn't need the app to know I didn't have a chance on any of mine, but it's cool nonetheless.

 

This thing sux 😂… indont like the answers it gave me! Thx for the effort!

 

Very cool! Thanks for doing this. I'm in a party with 8 pt average in sled archery elk. We missed the seed number in spectacular fashion by 9.7m+. Your results say likely to draw, but also says 9 pts is the minimum number for 100%. Last year was 91% with 7 pts per Ron's site so I'm thinking we are still good based on points even with a terrible seed. Why does your site say 9 pt minimum to be 100%? Does that account for some projected point creep?

 

Sled archery has been 100% at 8 points and 50+ at 7 for the last several years.

 

First off, thank you!! This looks to be a great tool. I put in my numbers and it said I was likely to draw, which would have to be out of the 25% pool. I did the calculation manually and got the same answer, but I also knew the science behind it. I see where you note that this is for a resident prediction. I'm guessing if you had a party application that involved an out of state person, the results might not work. Do you think that could be a possible future enhancement?

One hint. I donate to Ron's web site because I find it very valuable. I went to do the same to yours for the same reason, but it wouldn't let me complete the donation without leaving my phone number. I bailed at that point. Your site is worth donating to, but I don't want to leave my contact information because I don't think it is necessary, and my privacy is very important to me. ---- Just a thought

again, Thank You

 

Very cool! Thanks for doing this. I'm in a party with 8 pt average in sled archery elk. We missed the seed number in spectacular fashion by 9.7m+. Your results say likely to draw, but also says 9 pts is the minimum number for 100%. Last year was 91% with 7 pts per Ron's site so I'm thinking we are still good based on points even with a terrible seed. Why does your site say 9 pt minimum to be 100%? Does that account for some projected point creep?

The VizWild odds are based on last year's data. The field named, 'minimum points for 100% draw odds,' finds the lowest point level where every applicant drew the tag.

Looking at 257R1 Sled Springs Bow hunt, in 2023 25/25 applicants with 9 points drew. At the 8 point level 64/65 applicants drew. So due to that 1 poor soul who didn't draw with 8 points, 9 points was the minimum point total for 100% draw odds.

With 65 applicants who had 8 points, there was an application every 153k numbers. So it looks like with your application 9.7M away from the seed number, you squeak by and draw. Good luck. That was an interesting one to figure out.

First off, thank you!! This looks to be a great tool. I put in my numbers and it said I was likely to draw, which would have to be out of the 25% pool. I did the calculation manually and got the same answer, but I also knew the science behind it. I see where you note that this is for a resident prediction. I'm guessing if you had a party application that involved an out of state person, the results might not work. Do you think that could be a possible future enhancement?

again, Thank You

I do want to incorporate more data, such as the non-resident, 2nd-5th choice and previous year's data. Its just hard to get it all done on the first iteration. Hopefully by next year there will be more of the good stuff on the draw predictor page.

I am happy to take everyone's suggestions for improvements. The goal is to get you the data you want and need.

 

The VizWild odds are based on last year's data. The field named, 'minimum points for 100% draw odds,' finds the lowest point level where every applicant drew the tag.

Looking at 257R1 Sled Springs Bow hunt, in 2023 25/25 applicants with 9 points drew. At the 8 point level 64/65 applicants drew. So due to that 1 poor soul who didn't draw with 8 points, 9 points was the minimum point total for 100% draw odds.

With 65 applicants who had 8 points, there was an application every 153k numbers. So it looks like with your application 9.7M away from the seed number, you squeak by and draw. Good luck. That was an interesting one to figure out.




I do want to incorporate more data, such as the non-resident, 2nd-5th choice and previous year's data. Its just hard to get it all done on the first iteration. Hopefully by next year there will be more of the good stuff on the draw predictor page.

I am happy to take everyone's suggestions for improvements. The goal is to get you the data you want and need.

Winterkill,
Double-check your numbers on 257R1. It’s true 64 of 65 resident apps with 8 points drew in the preference pool, but that’s not the end. 46 of 62 residents apps with 7 points also drew in the preference pool, so 7 points was the break.

That one resident with 8 points who didn’t draw was likely in a group app with a nonresident.

 

Wow that's a pretty neat tool. Thanks for sharing. Again it looks like I still couldn't draw a general season tag if I had hoped to just buy it over the counter.

 

Thanks for your work, make a lot of guys scratch thier heads until the 10th I'm sure.
Cheers to you!

 

Thanks for your work, make a lot of guys scratch thier heads until the 10th I'm sure.
Cheers to you!

Are they posting results on the 10th this year? I've checked a couple places and can't find what the magic date is? It was the 20th for so long I just assumed it didn't change.

 

looks like i am likely to draw high desert elk and beattys butte deer with no point, sseed numbers were a lot better than i thought

 

Results (successful or unsuccessful) will be made available by February 20 (spring black bear) and June 12 (other big game). Check draw results by logging into your ODFW account or visiting a license agent.

From Controlled Hunt Applications & Tags - Oregon Hunting

 

Results (successful or unsuccessful) will be made available by February 20 (spring black bear) and June 12 (other big game). Check draw results by logging into your ODFW account or visiting a license agent.

 

clear as mud typical goverment speak

 

Results (successful or unsuccessful) will be made available by February 20 (spring black bear) and June 12 (other big game). Check draw results by logging into your ODFW account or visiting a license agent.



really? What was difficult about understanding this?

 

by the 20th or the 12th or the 15th or 18th

 

If any of you don't mind, can you let me know how the prediction from this application predictor compared to your actual draw results?

It was accurate for myself (nada) and my father.

 

Said I was "likely to draw" on 436 antelope.

Didn't happen.

 

I was selected for both buck deer and elk when the prediction said unlikely for both.

 

thanks for the feedback, which hunts and application number? you could pm me if you want.

 

i got both tags it said likely on