He basically needs to sell the Russian people on the joys of being in a brutal, grinding, bloody, generational-wealth-destroying, military quagmire for the foreseeable future WHILE their economy crumbles in ways that will truly start to manifest as Europe weans itself from Russian energy in the next 6 months- year. Once Europe gets alternate energy sources up and rolling, the Russian economy is kaput. The West will continue to pour weaponry into the conflict. Russians will die in droves. And this is what he has to try to sell!
Because that’s the best case scenario right now. The best-case for the Donbas/Crimea etc is a fiercely contested occupation. That assumes Russia can win the coming battles, and then hold the ground, neither of which are anywhere near certain.
So, that, or a declaration of victory followed by a de facto withdrawal in the coming months. This may be most likely, actually.
Or, at 80-1 odds the dark horse is massive escalation, no holds barred. My wife and I were talking this through just now. We don’t think he’s that desperate, or terminally ill to where he doesn’t care, or whatever. Then again the Derby was just won by a dark horse at 80-1 odds.
One thing is for certain, May 9th is a pivotal day in this mess.