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Putin looses yet another boat, this time to the Italian police. This shows how the Russian inner circle works, using off shore accounts, shell corps. and the like making it very hard to "follow the money." I doubt this one was headed to the Snake Island docks, lol.

 

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Yippee. Snake island is no more as of today. When the Moskova was sunk they lost their advanced defensive radar monitoring capability in the black sea. So they installed a replacement mobile radar system on snake island, but the Ukes sent in a Bayraktar drone and smoked the installation and a boat or two while at it. And then now with no radar, a couple if Uke jets came in last night and bombed out the remaining facilites, which they had sadly built. Now the critical port city of Odesa might be spared from sea based barrages.
 

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I know it would be very advanced work, but if Ukraine could destroy a Sub in the Black Sea the Russian military would be horrified and would no longer be able to launch cruise missiles from them there. I know there are torpedoes that can hunt submarines, but do not know if Ukraine could get them in range by land, air, or sea launch.
Stranger things have happened.
 

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Takin bets on what putin will announce on May 10th. I will lay a pile of cash on the table that he will declare war so he can draft more fodder.
I don't think he will want to "declare war". As a "Special Operation", the Russian people believe in the process. Declaring war on Ukraine will make citizens wonder. Russia also holds a draft twice a year. Conscripts are abundant. My guess is he declares victory in the de-nazification or something similar to make everyone feel like he is succeeding.
 

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I guess he will both declare victory and 'war'. Last week the rusky govt sent out notices to large industrial employers to submit names of essential personnel. Many assume that this precedes a declaration of general mobilization of older reservists. This would be a great time to be real chummy with your boss!!
 

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He basically needs to sell the Russian people on the joys of being in a brutal, grinding, bloody, generational-wealth-destroying, military quagmire for the foreseeable future WHILE their economy crumbles in ways that will truly start to manifest as Europe weans itself from Russian energy in the next 6 months- year. Once Europe gets alternate energy sources up and rolling, the Russian economy is kaput. The West will continue to pour weaponry into the conflict. Russians will die in droves. And this is what he has to try to sell!

Because that’s the best case scenario right now. The best-case for the Donbas/Crimea etc is a fiercely contested occupation. That assumes Russia can win the coming battles, and then hold the ground, neither of which are anywhere near certain.

So, that, or a declaration of victory followed by a de facto withdrawal in the coming months. This may be most likely, actually.

Or, at 80-1 odds the dark horse is massive escalation, no holds barred. My wife and I were talking this through just now. We don’t think he’s that desperate, or terminally ill to where he doesn’t care, or whatever. Then again the Derby was just won by a dark horse at 80-1 odds.

One thing is for certain, May 9th is a pivotal day in this mess.
 
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Interesting. Apart from keeping folks confused, that kind of talk could give "excuses." IT would be too wishful to hope it's an off ramp.
I read it takes 200 micro chips to make a single Javelin. Russia's been cut of from technology via sanctions, unless I guess they could get it from China. They really are going the way of N Korea.
 

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WELL I just watched Putin's speech live and glad I didnt make any bets. He didnt say jack all about ramping up, declaring war, calling up reservists etc. He didnt even say much on Ukraine and just spoke about the Donbas. So who knows. Maybe someone told him if he calls up the reservists the state dosent have any equipment to spare for them!
 

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Today is the day Putin tells us how he’s going to lose. He told us: the hard way.

Now we know the stakes... Putin either finds a way to convincingly win this thing, or else he loses, and is likely done.

It’s game-on.
 

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It was a pretty somber affair. They really must be short on equipment if that's the best they can do. If those Howitzers make it out there to the lines soon enough, we could see Ukraine regain some ground. Still, it's hard to envision what a "win" looks like for either side. Ukraine should have to give up any of it's territory, but I'd imagine they would do something like declare the Crimea a demilitarized zone. Problem is, Putin breaks every treaty he's ever seen or agreed to.
 

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Another T-90M down. I guess Russia had roughly 20 of these; now they have roughly 18. A Swedish anti-tank weapon was apparently used, for which Ukraine thanked Sweden very publicly...... a little nudge towards NATO.

 

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It’s pretty sad and pathetic when you get better and more honest news coverage from a foreign countries news media than our own. You can find out more stories here but you really need to “dig” for them at times.;)🇺🇸
 
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It’s pretty sad and pathetic when you get better and more honest news coverage from a foreign countries news media than our own. You can find out more stories here but you really need to “dig” for them at times.;)🇺🇸
I suspect is less government control than simply being a band of useful idiots. The media shares an agenda.
 
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