I've been out fishing Tillamook County/ Siletz tidewaters this fall, and I have not seen one jack salmon landed, but I've seen 100-200 or more adults landed in various locations. Has anyone caught any jacks this fall?
Normally, I would see a bunch of jacks landed by bobber fisherman, but not one this year. Should we be concerned?
The Columbia jack counts look good, but I'm concerned about north/central Oregon coastal systems.
On a related question, I was recalling that next year will be the second return of the 96 flood year, and was wondering how fast the run would recover. Given jacks are used to predict next years run, then what you are saying is next year could still be real slim pickings.
I have alway's wondered about the jack count's, and how ODF&W relies on them to predict the next years returns.
When I was up in Alaska a few years back, I discussed this with one of their local biologists. He explained to me that he felt it was a poor indicater, and that ADF&G relied on red counts to predict returns. :shrug: :whazzup: Jack counts were not taken in to consideration. Maybe that has changed since then?
Yah I'm pretty sure it's the next years run. Fish can grow a ton in a short amount of time...and remember these are jacks sitting in the river not eating, while all their buddies are out in the ocean chomping away.
Another thing I just thought about:
In a given run, there can be 1,2,3,4, and even 5 salt fish. Those big 40-50 pound salmon being caught in Tillamook Bay right now, those are all 4 or 5 salt fish. Jacks are all 1 salt fish.
Just another something to chew on.
SKP, I agree with you. If you pull the fall jack counts and adult counts, it seems as though the adults stay out in the salt one more year than the coho's or springers. A strong jack count for springers, leads to a strong adult return the next year. While a strong fall jack chinook count seems to correlate to strong adult returns in two years.
The coho counts are more based on coastal surveys, and hatchery returns as not too many coho's pass Bonneville.