[Pete]

Jennie has kindly uploaded this large Word document, with the spring chinook forecast and it's justification. Spring Forecast

The issue may come up at the December ODFW Commission meeting.

 

[O Tshawytcha]

Thanks Pete,
Lets just hope they are a little better at predicting this years run!
GRIFF

 

[slabhunter]

Pete,
Thanks for sharing the Spring Forecast file. :smile:

Any tips on converting the file, windows 97, to allow me to view with the windows XP? :whazzup:

Happy Thanksgiving,
Hans

 

[Flatfish]

I cannot open it. :shrug:

Mark and the dog.

 

[GO-FASTER]

I DIDNT OPEN IT,CAUSE NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE

 

[GO-FASTER]

SO WHAT WILL GAS PRICES BE FOR THE SUMMER STEELHEAD RUN IN 06 ?

 

[slabhunter]

I DIDNT OPEN IT,CAUSE NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE

DFW Harvest Management uses the forcast to determine how many how many of the public's wild fishes(salmon and steelhead) they can kill in the frontloaded net fishery. BTW...no need to shout (all caps). :cheers:

Happy Thanksgiving,
Hans Mak

 

[eyeFISH]

They tried to figure out specific point sources for the unexpected shortfall of 2005 springers. In the end they could find none that could explain the 140% error in the run-size forecast.

"TAC has not been able to make a definitive conclusion regarding why there was such a significant difference between the pre-season forecast and the actual spring Chinook return in 2005. TAC believes that the reason is most likely due to a combination of factors working together. While it is clear that some sources of mortality have increased relative to recent years, the available data suggests that no single source (i.e.: Canadian fisheries or sea lions) can be blamed alone. TAC believes that the most important factor may be an adverse change in marine conditions that reduced survival and which likely increased the level of inherent uncertainty in our ability to forecast the return. "

 

[GO-FASTER]

BTW...no need to shout (all caps).

SORRY YOU CAN HEAR FROM YOUR SCREEN

 

[Pete]

The run size error attributed to ocean conditions is hooey ... the Columbia run was way off, but other runs were not way off. The Willamette was down some, but not 140%. Coastal runs were not off by that factor. The explanation is completely inadequate and doesn't live up to the standards I expect of a science based, public resource management agency. Lots a words and not many answers.

 

[eyeFISH]

Lots a words and not many answers.

You got that right Pete!

 

[JustCallMeDave]

If you don't have Microsoft Word, download the Acrobat file from here.

 

[jetjockey]

I wish everyone would stop being so fixated on just the 05 returns. The 04 returns were off by almost the same number of fish as well!!! Yet, the fall runs and summer runs on the CR have been doing well (this year was a little off for the CR fall return, but not by much).. Why is it that everyone keeps forgetting this?? It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out what the main problem is!! Yet, nobody wants to admit to it, because there is really no way to fix it!! Guys..... The last two springer runs have been over predicted by about 180,000 fish.... Not just 05... We need to start looking at the big picture. I will guarantee that no matter what this years predicted run is, it will be way off again, just like I predicted before the last two springer season!! I would be suprised if there is even a CR springer season this year. If there is, it will be shut down quickly do to a lack of returning fish!!!!

 

[Pete]

As good as the last few years have been, I think we can anticipate smaller runs, not matter what. That makes it even more important that the gillnetters not be given first shot at the fish or expanded run size predictions that will result in premature closure of the sport season. Look at the annual run size for the last 50 years ... we don't know why the runs were large, so we won't be able predict why they are smaller. The key is that we don't hurt the stock or short change our season as we head into the new run.

 

[Untired]

I personal think the run is predicked high so the commercial guys get there's.

 

[Gun Rod Bow]

So,

Being a known un-fan of uncontrolled pinnipeds I still have to ask this question...

If the Jack counts were high, and the adult counts were way off, wouldn't it be logical that something is preying heavily on the adult fish??

Is there any credible effort to try and find what the pinniped predation on adults actually is?

 

[pearl]

Is there any credible effort to try and find what the pinniped predation on adults actually is?

I think they know. Nobody has the ca-hones to open up pandoras box and do battle with the feds and the endangered species act.

The issue seems to get deflected by most of the agencies each year.

 

[jetjockey]

Pearl... You make a good point, but I don't think they really know. I think they have a pretty good idea, but I don't think they really wanna know. Because if they had good factual info about how many salmon the sealions are eating, then they would have to do something about it in order to fix the problem. That's why I think they keep pushing the fact that the sealions eat only 2% of the run below bonni. Well, that's only about 3 or 4 miles of a river that's about what, 75 or 80 mile's long. And in the spring there are sealions all throught the river. Then they push the fact that Bonni creates the problem since it makes it easy for the sealions to trap the salmon against the dam. So predation rates are different there than other parts of the river. Well what about 2000 boats along the river that hook fish, the sealions seem to have gotten very good at picking the salmon of fishermans lines!! As far as I know, there has never been a study of sealion predatation throught the entire river. And I don't think you will see one because of the consiquences that might come about. The feds are gonna look pretty dumb after spending 100's of millions of dollars helping save endangered fish that are being eaten by a sealion that is protected by the same people trying to protect the fish (even if they are doing a horrible job). My thoughts are, and always will be until proven otherwise, that when I saw the number of sealions in the CR jump from the 03 springer season to the 04 springer season we were gonna be in big trouble. And so far I have been completly right. I do hope its something else, something that might be a lot easier to fix, but I don't think I am!!

 

[slabhunter]

JustCallMeDave,

PDF works for me! :bowdown:

Happy Thanksgiving,
Hans

 

[Bill Monroe]

This should be labeled the 2005 forecast performance.
As I understand it, coastal forecasts were a lot closer than those on the Columbia, including the Willamette.
Sea lions seem a possible partial answer, but don't entirely explain the losses.
Given the commission's committment to commercial fishing, it's tough to delay netting in favor of later sportfishing. Delayed netting carves into protected upriver fish.
It'll be interesting, for sure, but don't look for either state to abandon commercial harvest.
Just my thoughts on Thanksgiving...and I'm thankful for being able to fish at all for spring chinook during times last year that less than a decade ago were entirely closed.