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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I did a little noodling in Excel on the run size. According to the Compact documents, actions are based on an estimated run size of 145,000 fish over Bonneville.

Based on my calculations, we're on track for a run size of about 188,000 fish. To reach this, I used the following counts. 4/12 and before are actual. 4/13 and after are an average of the previous week, and then declining as shown.

This estimate is probably conservative, as we have had a couple of huge days over the dam in the past two years, and that isn't factored in.

So, the biologists are probably running similar, but more educated spreadsheets. Seems to me like we'll likely be able to continue fishing. The bad news is, the commercials may get a day in there as well that could hurt us.

STGrule, would love to have you blast my methodology. :wink:

BTW, dates are off by one, bad typing. Doesn't effect the basic conclusion.

2-Mar 121
3-Mar 102
4-Mar 127
5-Mar 140
6-Mar 213
7-Mar 266
8-Mar 371
9-Mar 394
10-Mar 627
11-Mar 516
12-Mar 307
13-Mar 323
14-Mar 595
15-Mar 942
16-Mar 416
17-Mar 559
18-Mar 736
19-Mar 426
20-Mar 332
21-Mar 343
22-Mar 150
23-Mar 99
24-Mar 115
25-Mar 622
26-Mar 1973
27-Mar 2161
28-Mar 1690
29-Mar 1807
30-Mar 2580
31-Mar 2574
1-Apr 1687
2-Apr 1293
3-Apr 1567
4-Apr 3823
5-Apr 7455
6-Apr 3900
7-Apr 2629
8-Apr 3591
9-Apr 3955
10-Apr 6402
11-Apr 5302 total to date
12-Apr 4632 63,231
13-Apr 4632 Average of previous week
14-Apr 4632
15-Apr 4632
16-Apr 4632
17-Apr 4632
18-Apr 4632
19-Apr 4632
20-Apr 4632
21-Apr 4632
22-Apr 4632
23-Apr 4632
24-Apr 4632
25-Apr 4632
26-Apr 4632
27-Apr 3706 80% of previous day
28-Apr 3706
29-Apr 3706
30-Apr 3706
1-May 3706
2-May 3706
3-May 3706
4-May 2965 80% of previous day
5-May 2965
6-May 2965
7-May 2965
8-May 2965
9-May 2965
10-May 2965
11-May 1779 60% of previous day
12-May 1779
13-May 1779
14-May 1779 total
15-May 1779 188,298
 

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Silver,

I don't understand your numbers.

Peak Daily in 2001 was 27,020 fish on April 18 and 25,631 in 2002 on May 1st.

Are your numbers estimated catches on those days?

I thought the estimate for 2003 was a bit under but close to the record 2001 and 2002 runs?

Brion
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Yup, there were high peak days in both years, and I have not factored those in. That's why I think this is conservative. The run size estimate I got from the compact run estimate sheet, shown here.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
No, they are dam passage estimates at Bonneville dam, which I believe is the basis for overall run estimates for upriver salmon. Which I believe I noted in the first paragraph. :hoboy: :wink:

[ 04-13-2003, 10:11 AM: Message edited by: Silver Hilton ]
 

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Silver,

Here's when we hit 188,000 fish in 2001. I think the numbers will be a more up and down, like 2001 and 2002. It's following 2001 so far with slightly lower numbers so with 188,000 fish, we'd fish to May 4.

Day 2001
3/15 23
3/16 17
3/17 56
3/18 20
3/19 416
3/20 233
3/21 389
3/22 455
3/23 744
3/24 576
3/25 619
3/26 635
3/27 634
3/28 699
3/29 871
3/30 1200
3/31 942
4/1 4227
4/2 5433
4/3 6721
4/4 6772
4/5 9942
4/6 13156
4/7 7573
4/8 5027
4/9 9241
4/10 11742
4/11 14410
4/12 14520
4/13 17077
4/14 15691
4/15 19192
4/16 14994
4/17 13852
4/18 27020
4/19 15346
4/20 6801
4/21 7143
4/22 7535
4/23 4687
4/24 6357
4/25 7045
4/26 7689
4/27 7869
4/28 5702
4/29 3736
4/30 3719
5/1 4331
5/2 1326
5/3 3840
5/4 8026 Total 188,909.
 

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Ya, with more fish than they thought they can let the netters back in to take the excess and keep us out for good. :depressed:
 

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SH: Sorry it took so long to get back. I just heard I'd been called out. :tongue: :wink:

I can't possibly blast your methodology as I have no idea how they do it. :shrug:

I always thought it had to do with ceremonies at midnight on a new moon and some incense burning and throwing of bones and such. I could be wrong.
 

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SH...a couple thoughts on this. First let me say this is very interesting and I am not picking apart your methodology. :cool:

1. I haven't seen the method used for in season updates before. Where did you get your reduction numbers for the back side of the peak of the run? (80-60% of previous week). Is this just an estimate on your part or did you run previous years numbers?
2. Actual springer counts continue through May 31 at Bonneville Dam; however, yours end on May 15th. Is there a reason for this, or do you need to rerun the numbers to account for the extra two weeks?

I will check out a couple of site to see what I can come up with. The CRC is meeting today to come up with an update on the run. It should be fun to see how close you were. :wink: :cheers:
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Actually, I just did an approximation, because it looked to my unpracticed eye like we were going to handily exceed the orginal run estimate. I have taken several steps to be conservative, so as to not get my own hopes up. We haven't seen the end of april bulge that we have in the last two years, so I assumed that it wouldn't happen. Then I eyeballed the tailoff rate in the run in the past three years, and used the 80% and 60 to approximate that.

Point being, I think we have enough fish to keep on fishing - will the compact agree? We'll know in a couple of hours.

And please, no one ever feel shy about shooting at my guesstimation techniques. I'm an economist by training, we're used to it! :wink:

[ 04-15-2003, 01:44 PM: Message edited by: Silver Hilton ]
 

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Silver that is why biologist and biometricians have jobs to make these estimates. Plus, the profesionals making the estimates don't have alterior motives, like fishing, they have the resourse in mind as their best interest, not their won selfish interests.

I think you did make a valiant attempt at the run size. Unfortunatly I think the run siz3e may even be smaller than estimated by the pros, but hopefully not. You really need to look at old spring chinook data, not just from 2001 and 2002 and it will give you a better idea on springer numbers and their boom and bust day patterns.
 
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