OFFICIAL Spring Chinook Abundance Thread

29867 Views 288 Replies 59 Participants Last post by met'lhead matt, 6 d ago

sdsurfer

Discussion Starter · 1 mo ago

Because one of the moderators objected to the discussions of the run size on the "OFFICIAL 2023 Columbia River Spring Chinook Thread," here is another thread where folks can hopefully feel free to prognosticate on what's happening with the Columbia spring Chinook run.

I think they're going to be taking a pause with the big jump in flows at Bonneville. I am expecting less than a thousand on 5/3.

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Chrisdeadly

· #2 · 1 mo ago

I'm guessing more than 4000 on 5/3

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Starfish

· #3 · 1 mo ago

It won’t surprise me if they stall out for a day or two because of the drastic increase in flow. They’ll figure it out in a few days, but I’m betting on another mid-2000s day. Let’s say 2349.

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Joe Schmo

· #4 · 1 mo ago

Basically 50 PITs the last 3 days and the counts went 2475. 3635, 2212 so that variability still makes it a guessing game however there'll only be 30 (or less) PITs today so my WAG is 1650

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[email protected]

· #5 · 1 mo ago

I don’t think it was that. It was me. I get in trouble a lot. I mentioned something in regards to a boat and sea lions

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met'lhead matt

· #6 · 1 mo ago

Look at the outflow, doubled in last few days, higher water, harder to find the ladder, always a problem on big runoff years, and it is here now

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From High Desert to Ocean

· #7 · 1 mo ago

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Let's hope your theory is correct! Outflow certainly affects passage, but to this extent? We'll see...

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PnwChrome

· #8 · 1 mo ago

It always pushes the fish back for a few days

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sdsurfer

Discussion Starter · #9 · 1 mo ago

The fish showed up a little better than I expected at 1,377. Flows have continued to rise, but have started to level off at around 330 kcfs for the last 10 hours. Stable or dropping flows should get them moving again.

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Joe Schmo

· #10 · 1 mo ago

Flows will peak in the Snake Sunday(ish)

CKthumper

· #11 · 1 mo ago

Silver lining? While adult counts stagnate, jack counts are holding steady or rising... Managements decision to withhold another extension is looking more and more prudent... The scheduled May 15 steelhead opener may be in jeopardy...

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darth baiter

· #12 · 1 mo ago

Since 2012, the average peak daily count day was May 6, the average date w 50% passage comes a few days later on May 10. With 23,600 counted through May 4, if the run ends up being 5 days later than average the total season count is 150k. At 7 days later than average, the run is about 207K. Still time folks.

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The Sailor

· #13 · 1 mo ago

CKthumper said:
Silver lining? While adult counts stagnate, jack counts are holding steady or rising... Managements decision to withhold another extension is looking more and more prudent... The scheduled May 15 steelhead opener may be in jeopardy...

What's a steelhead?

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Joe Schmo

· #14 · 1 mo ago

darth baiter said:
Since 2012, the average peak daily count day was May 6, the average date w 50% passage comes a few days later on May 10. With 23,600 counted through May 4, if the run ends up being 5 days later than average the total season count is 150k. At 7 days later than average, the run is about 207K. Still time folks.

Don’t make me take your money too

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sdsurfer

Discussion Starter · #15 · 1 mo ago

Our spring Chinook amiga may be a bit tardia to the Cinco de Mayo celebration. Flows were steady at ~330 kcfs yesterday, but have crept up to ~345 kcfs today. Still waiting for flows to stabilize or drop...

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Joe Schmo

· #16 · 1 mo ago

Could be 1000 over BON today

sdsurfer

Discussion Starter · #17 · 1 mo ago

Over 1,000 would be optimistic. I'll guess 700.

bscappell

· #18 · 1 mo ago

This is so depressing..... Does the "Late runs are historically small runs" still apply? If so this ain't good folks!

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stephenhayes1946

· #19 · 1 mo ago

The Sailor said:
What's a steelhead?

have the shad showed up yet

Liquiddeath

· #20 · 1 mo ago

bscappell said:
This is so depressing..... Does the "Late runs are historically small runs" still apply? If so this ain't good folks!

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On a “normal” year. Yes. But when everything’s running late and the salmon trend follows that. Then The Columbia floods right when the fish start crossing the damn. It really throws a wrench into predictions. We could see some incredible late May fishing for a change.

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