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This question is going out to all you Salty Dogs out there who have spent countless hours in the big blue. Are these wind and wave predictions right on the money 90% of the time? Have there been numerous occasions where it was predicted to be rough and it was quite the opposite? I remember a post just the other day saying it was flat on Monday or Tuesday. I looked at the NOAA report and it said (No Good. Stay Away). I've been looking at the bouy recordings at the mouth of the Columbia and it hasn't been looking good.

Thankyou for any help with this.

SPACE
 

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Not even close to 90% accurate. I always read it first but usually drive down if its marginal and see for myself. Trends are useful and tidal currents at bar crossings are a must for me. Wind direction is a factor, swells one direction, winds the other make for a washing machine effect. If the predictions are really bad I save myself the drive. Afternoon winds are common in the summer as the valley heats up and pulls the marine air in, best to get out early if the tides will let you.

There are some real experts on the board that I've gleaned lots of good weather info from, hopefully you'll get some more tips.

The last 2 weekends the forecast was substantially off. 2 weeks ago the forecast was for mild seas and it got pretty sloppy, last week it was like a duck pond with a marginal forcast.
 

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NOAA forecasts are just predictions ... they are based on the best available data and the best available modelling ... but I'm sure the forecasters wouldn't pretend to guarantee the forecast. They are also, I'm sure, under some pressure not to under estimate the forecast since so many lives are at stake. Their estimates are conservative, erring on the side of safety. Yes, the weather is often better than predicted. But consider what would happen if they kept telling folks "It's a beautiful day for a boat ride" and lots of folks got hurt when the waves and wind ripped up the ocean and a bunch of boats went down. There's no better place to start looking at what the weather will be than NOAA, but some experience and good judgement will also allow you to find times that are better than predicted.
 
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