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Pretty good article about the entire life cycle and warming impacts.
 

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This is not the first rodeo for anadromous fish and climate change. They have been around for thousands of years. Adaptation to change has happened in the past and undoubtedly will play a part in the future. Not saying that climate change is not important but some computer models today have fixed input from the recent past and a terrible record at forecasting the future. The popular tool today is PVA or population viability analysis for forecasting which is somewhere between science and a wild ass guess.
 

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A study about climate change appears on ifish. No surprise that vague criticism follows.

In this paper they used model ensembles, or groups of many models, to estimate future climate. The models are from the IPCC assessments, state of the art worldwide. The atmosphere/land/river projections are based on 10 different climate models. The sea surface temperature projections are based on 26 different ocean models.

And the amount of biological data used is staggering. The salmon survival estimates come from analyses of 7.5K to 1.6M (that‘s million) samples. There is a lot of data on Columbia River salmon. Right there in the paper.

It ain’t perfect, no projection ever is. But we’ve clearly mucked things up, and studies like this give guidance on how we can prioritize efforts to find solutions. Fish and fishing are important to a lot of us.
 

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30-50 years of models being so wildly off they may as well be science FICTION. I am not being vague, climate science and palm reading voodoo have about the same accuracy rates. You can artistically cast about all you want but this is hardly science.

What is worse, there is an agenda behind it. Some of it is pure evil, like controlling who has access, but some is just plain stupid. One goal of these type of articles is to shut down hatchery production and to stop spending money since all rivers are going to run dry... or flood, or be acidified, pick one.

in California they declared global warming as good and built no new reseviors, kinda missed out on all that record rain and snow melt.

Make no mistake, leadership in the NW may actually be less intelligent the good ole Newsome.
 

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30-50 years of models being so wildly off they may as well be science FICTION. I am not being vague, climate science and palm reading voodoo have about the same accuracy rates. You can artistically cast about all you want but this is hardly science.

What is worse, there is an agenda behind it. Some of it is pure evil, like controlling who has access, but some is just plain stupid. One goal of these type of articles is to shut down hatchery production and to stop spending money since all rivers are going to run dry... or flood, or be acidified, pick one.
The “control agenda” issue is conspiracy theory fear mongering created by industry-funded media over non-existent backroom cabals.

‘The issue of how well climate models predict has been examined in detail and comes out looking substantially better than fear-conspiracy media would have their sheeple believe


 

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The “control agenda” issue is conspiracy theory fear mongering created by industry-funded media over non-existent backroom cabals.

‘The issue of how well climate models predict has been examined in detail and comes out looking substantially better than fear-conspiracy media would have their sheeple believe


Beauty cast bro, just a bit farther
 
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Your sources are the foxes guarding the hen house. “But, but it’s a science magazine”!!!

Control is conspiracy theory??? The fly guys literally just shut down fishing from a boat, this season, right now, on the Washington Coast.

Sheep? My post may get censored, yours won’t. Only the truth gets censored.
 

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Your sources are the foxes guarding the hen house. “But, but it’s a science magazine”!!!

Control is conspiracy theory??? The fly guys literally just shut down fishing from a boat, this season, right now, on the Washington Coast.

Sheep? My post may get censored, yours won’t. Only the truth gets censored.
All Steelhead fishing on the WA coast should be shut down period for everyone! All of these rivers with the exception of the Sol Duc and the Hoh are NOT meeting spawning objectives or escapement goals.Lots of good river spawning habitat on the coast, but the ocean is sick, call it or don't call it, what else do you think is going on? Oysters have not been able to reproduce on their own for quite some time now. The ocean is too acidic to support shell growth. You really think nothing is going on?
 

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All Steelhead fishing on the WA coast should be shut down period for everyone! All of these rivers with the exception of the Sol Duc and the Hoh are NOT meeting spawning objectives or escapement goals.Lots of good river spawning habitat on the coast, but the ocean is sick, call it or don't call it, what else do you think is going on? Oysters have not been able to reproduce on their own for quite some time now. The ocean is too acidic to support shell growth. You really think nothing is going on?
To some, none of that matters because they are only interested in their personal fishing endeavors....not the fish.
 

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Something is for sure going on, things change.
 

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“My sources” are peer reviewed scientific literature. Should we expect an airpline pilot or radiation technician to be the authority on climate change? I wouldn’t want a climate scientist doing their jobs.

A highly underappreciated aspect of science is that it rewards dissent more than it rewards agreement.

Studies that robustly challenge and overturn dominant ideas, which spark new thinking, are the ones that lead to the greatest advances in understanding and reap the highest rewards. In contrast, studies that are largely confirmatory, which repeat and reinforce existing ideas, simply aren’t as interesting and rarely garner much attention (nor continued funding). The reward system promotes dissent, but the dissent has to be robust and stand up to scrutiny.
 

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“My sources” are peer reviewed scientific literature. Should we expect an airpline pilot or radiation technician to be the authority on climate change? I wouldn’t want a climate scientist doing their jobs.

A highly underappreciated aspect of science is that it rewards dissent more than it rewards agreement.

Studies that robustly challenge and overturn dominant ideas, which spark new thinking, are the ones that lead to the greatest advances in understanding and reap the highest rewards. In contrast, studies that are largely confirmatory, which repeat and reinforce existing ideas, simply aren’t as interesting and rarely garner much attention (nor continued funding). The reward system promotes dissent, but the dissent has to be robust and stand up to scrutiny.
I think I may have got on the clown car or something. Try dissenting on “climate science” sometime or point out all the falsified data. It was all warming until they got caught faking the data and then climate change miraculously appeared. That hasn’t been measurable so now ocean acidification is the latest boogy man.

the same folks you cite as peer review experts forecasted that February was going to be a record warm month.
 
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I think I may have got on the clown car or something. Try dissenting on “climate science” sometime or point out all the falsified data. It was all warming until they got caught faking the data and then climate change miraculously appeared. That hasn’t been measurable so now ocean acidification is the latest boogy man.

the same folks you cite as peer review experts forecasted that February was going to be a record warm month.
One of his citations is NASA, who just landed a rover on mars.

If you want to dissent that is fine, but nobody will take you seriously until you present your case. Simply being a salmon fisherman with a thought about climate science, and no references, carries no weight. You're just standing on the sidelines throwing pebbles which is annoying, but meaningless.
 

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I shouldn’t be so snotty in tone about it but control and closures make me very upset and nervous. I suppose I can use Google and post links and then have you point out tha big oil must be behind it all. Better yet, I hope you get out there and get some grabs.
 

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What I don’t understand is the article clearly states and lists the reasons salmon are declining, but then only looks at one of these causes for the decline. To me this is because they want this to fit a narrative that will continue the funding of their research. If they were truly concerned about the salmon decline rather than our changing climate, their study would of addressed the other causes.
 

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I haven't seen any indication that Salmon or Steelhead are evolving to tolerate environmental changes that are outside of well understood ranges. They are not going to do that.
 

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As things warm up they will shrink their southern stocks, many disappearing altogether.
 
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Interesting read. With 90 seconds of research I can see that climate change/global warming is here to stay. AT LEAST for the "next few decades" (source:NOAA). Probably for hundreds of years (centuries?).
Having said that, maybe, JUST MAYBE while we deal with climate change, we should be working on solutions that will have an effect NEXT YEAR (as well as next CENTURY).
Predation, Cormorants, Mergansers (why they aren't considered a separate part of the waterfowl bag limit, like it used to be, I don't understand), seals & sea lions, Terns....), high seas interception of stocks, habitat restoration, hatchery supplementation/brood stock programs, eliminating unsustainable commercial fishing. There are issues WE could/should be working on that will make a difference in our lifetimes. Climate change ISN'T one of them.
 

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Interesting read. With 90 seconds of research I can see that climate change/global warming is here to stay. AT LEAST for the "next few decades" (source:NOAA). Probably for hundreds of years (centuries?).
Having said that, maybe, JUST MAYBE while we deal with climate change, we should be working on solutions that will have an effect NEXT YEAR (as well as next CENTURY).
Predation, Cormorants, Mergansers (why they aren't considered a separate part of the waterfowl bag limit, like it used to be, I don't understand), seals & sea lions, Terns....), high seas interception of stocks, habitat restoration, hatchery supplementation/brood stock programs, eliminating unsustainable commercial fishing. There are issues WE could/should be working on that will make a difference in our lifetimes. Climate change ISN'T one of them.
Maybe. If everything was just about fishing.
 
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