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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Here is a new observation from my COVID-19 study. The below charts compare positive antibody results to study participants who answered 'Yes' to the question, "Do you think you've had COVID-19?"

Results show that people who are unvaccinated and undiagnosed for COVID-19 overestimate past infection. Presumably this also means they overestimate their own natural immunity, and risk for infection.

The unvaccinated/undiagnosed cohort even includes people who have reason to believe they had COVID-19 and tested positive for antibodies. Such as people who did not get tested but got sick with COVID-19 like symptoms while living with someone who had tested positive. Those people are inflating the number of positive tests in the cohort.

All of this suggests if you do not have a diagnosis, or a direct, known exposure and subsequent COVID-19 like illness, then you most likely never had the virus.

My goal in posting this is not to pick on anyone. Just want people to best understand their risk for infection. There are ample tools out there to help mitigate risk to your own liking (vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, anti-virals). We also know the demographics and underlying health conditions that put people most at risk for severe infection.

Whichever tool you choose to use to protect yourself is up to you. Hopefully you make the choice after consultation with your physician.

Let me know if you have any questions about the data.

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So 73 out of 159 were unvaccinated, thought they had had Covid, but didn’t?
 

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I have been hearing that natural immunity falls off faster than vaccinated immunity. Don't know how true that is. Is it possible? May that be a reason some are not testing as having had the virus even when they think they did?
 
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I didn't participate because I didn't feel I met the standard. Now it appears it was the correct choice. The one thing I truly believe is me going around this long and not experiencing multiple mild exposures, impossible. Probably true for a very high percentage (if not 100%) of the population. These mild exposures wouldn't show up on any test. I consider a mild exposure to be one that doesn't produce a measurable immune response.
 

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That’s really interesting
I got sick in august. Bad fever was my only symptom. Fine after two days. Tested negative. I was/am convinced I had it.
I never get sick. An illness that was just lethargy and fever. Now I am not convinced either way


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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
I have been hearing that natural immunity falls off faster than vaccinated immunity. Don't know how true that is. Is it possible? May that be a reason some are not testing as having had the virus even when they think they did?
According to reinfection and breakthrough infection data, as well as some basic immunology, it is very unlikely vaccine immunity is more effective than natural immunity.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
So 73 out of 159 were unvaccinated, thought they had had Covid, but didn’t?
73 of 159 were unvaccinated at the time of sample submission.

Of the 73 who were unvaccinated or undiagnosed, 66% (48 people) thought they had COVID at some point.

Of those same 73 people, 13% (9 people) actually tested positive for antibodies.
 

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73 of 159 were unvaccinated at the time of sample submission.

Of the 73 who were unvaccinated or undiagnosed, 66% (48 people) thought they had COVID at some point.

Of those same 73 people, 13% (9 people) actually tested positive for antibodies.
How many of the 86 vaccinated thought they had Covid at some point?

Of those, how many tested positive for antibodies?

So of the 48 who thought they had, 18.75% actually did.

What conclusions can we draw from this data?
 

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More propaganda with an agenda
Really? You understand he is doing the actual testing? While the number of data points he has at this point aren't as robust as they will be, he is adding data all the time.
 
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The data is interesting. If I read it correctly a very small percentage of folks that think they have been infected actually have been. Reading the raw numbers pushed by OHA and blown out of proportion by the media one would reasonably believe the infection rate to be much higher. Even though this is a small data pool I trust it far more than the fluffy stats from other 'official' sources. Keep it coming, Winterkill.
 
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