...I'm pretty sure any app numbers that are lower than the seed numbers are almost guarantee no draw.
This depends on the point level you are at. If there are enough tags in the 75% pool to give every applicant a tag, it won't matter.
If there are nearly enough tags in the 75% pool, then it depends on how many applications are between your number and the seed.
Seed numbers are interesting data points, but they are not definitive in determining draw results.