[canes_venatici]

...I'm pretty sure any app numbers that are lower than the seed numbers are almost guarantee no draw.

This depends on the point level you are at. If there are enough tags in the 75% pool to give every applicant a tag, it won't matter.


If there are nearly enough tags in the 75% pool, then it depends on how many applications are between your number and the seed.



Seed numbers are interesting data points, but they are not definitive in determining draw results.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

Pretty sure I just ruined the anticipation of results being released

Yep, family of four, and we have nothing within 10% of a seed number for sheep, goat, and premium hunts. Conspiracy, I say!!!

Fortunately, our apps for the preference point drawings are planned to draw by points, rather than hoping for random seeds. I think we'll be OK there.

QQ

 

[WapitiBob]

10,000,000 / applicants * number of tags = random number spread to allocate those tags.

This is a long way from precise results.
Every app that applies for a given hunt could have random numbers under the seed number. I do it for fun and depending on my numbers, can see if I drew. In that instance my number is right above the seed number.
I have basically three options; I'm going to draw, I have no idea, and there is no way I can draw.

 

[loper]

Yep, family of four, and we have nothing within 10% of a seed number for sheep, goat, and premium hunts. Conspiracy, I say!!!

:jester:

 

[morelk]

I think this adds an extra layer of anticipation and a bit of premature disappointment.

My daughters youth deer hunt looks hopeful with 12 points & a top 7% seed.
My son is top 3% in sheep, but that probably isn't good enough.
I've got a top 3.5% premium elk number, but probably not good enough.
All 6 of my immediate family has horrible #s looking for a random willy tag

 

[blackdog]

Random numbers are in your account. Good luck

Where are these actually supposed to be found in our accounts? I couldn't find it and when I just called ODFW Licensing for help, the gal who answered again told me she didn't think they were released. Said she was going to check with her supervisor when she got back from lunch. But any help would be appreciated.

 

[SImudBogger]

Where the heck do we find these numbers? I can see my application number but can’t find the seed numbers. Anyone got a link?

 

[Monkey Shrimp]

Where the heck do we find these numbers? I can see my application number but can’t find the seed numbers. Anyone got a link?

See post #67 in this thread for the seed numbers.

 

[Extrapale]

I got a decent deer number.

My dad got a great sheep number. We shall see. At 78 years old he needs to draw soon if he is going to be able to hunt.

Sent from my LM-G820 using Tapatalk

 

[SImudBogger]

It’s only a good indicator of if you drew if your app number is very close the seed number and not below it. 7 digits is 10 million numbers, and there’s not 10 million applications.
Our app number is only like 150 digits above the seed for buck deer, so that’s a slam dunk. After that it’s a total crapshoot depending on points, total applicants, party sizes etc.

 

[WapitiBob]

congrats

 

[Stonefly1]

Where are these actually supposed to be found in our accounts? I couldn't find it and when I just called ODFW Licensing for help, the gal who answered again told me she didn't think they were released. Said she was going to check with her supervisor when she got back from lunch. But any help would be appreciated.

it's your application # listed in the controlled hunt area once you log in to your account.

 

[Stonefly1]

It’s only a good indicator of if you drew if your app number is very close the seed number and not below it. 7 digits is 10 million numbers, and there’s not 10 million applications.
Our app number is only like 150 digits above the seed for buck deer, so that’s a slam dunk. After that it’s a total crapshoot depending on points, total applicants, party sizes etc.

Awesome...

 

[haro450]

Any guess on how close a person needs to be for a big horn tag?

 

[Diep]

It does kill the suspense a bit but I like being able to see it.


Unfortunately the only one I am even in the neighborhood with was already a high percentage chance for buck deer. I wish I had that draw for any of the others with very low percentages on the 25% pool. I'd even be hopeful for bighorn if it was in that series...


At least I can start planning for the hunt I was already planning on! :smirk:


~Diep

 

[SImudBogger]

Awesome...

Actually..... 5,150 off lol. My maff skils r bahd. But still very close. It’s a 90% draw anyway, not much for suspense

 

[haro450]

Any guess on how close a person needs to be for a big horn tag?

9602826 is my brother inlaws number. For big horn first choice is a 2 tag unit with less than 200 applicants last year.

 

[loper]

It’s only a good indicator of if you drew if your app number is very close the seed number and not below it. 7 digits is 10 million numbers, and there’s not 10 million applications.
Our app number is only like 150 digits above the seed for buck deer, so that’s a slam dunk. After that it’s a total crapshoot depending on points, total applicants, party sizes etc.

The last sentence is true for all but the Premium hunts and the hunts for which no preference points can be obtained. :flowered:

I only bring that up because I was bored and looked mine up; Premium Elk is actually potentially in play for me. :dance:
I assisted in the retrieval of 4 elk last year; I wonder if I can get at least the two retirees to help me if that were to come to pass. :idea:

 

[SImudBogger]

Any guess on how close a person needs to be for a big horn tag?

“Very” is the only word that comes to mind

 

[Cadiaz]

So if I am understanding this correctly you're out of contention if your number is below the seed number?