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I heard there are donuts, so I might come, too.

QQ
I heard the donuts they served last year were amazing! Warm and fresh like the baker just pulled them out of the oven. Some people were even able to eat 2!


I also heard the drawing was entertaining. Very similar to the NFL draft lottery.
 

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The 21st they are drawing the numbers....when will we find out if we drew a tag and how can you look that up on the new system?
 

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ODFW drawing 101

Oregon is unique in that we use a "seed number" as the starting number for filling tags. Most states sort by points, then random numbers, then go "up" from zero trying to fill tags.

Oregon sorts by points and random numbers as well, but, goes up from the species "seed number", which eliminates any possibility of the random number generator giving preference to anyone, including but not limited to, first time Sheep applicants. The dept has 10 numbered ping pong balls that get spun around in a little wooden box and members of the public pick one ball at a time, creating a 10 digit number, starting with the left most digit. The draw computer will go "up" from this number, to 9,999,999,999 then loop around to 0 and continue up, so...... if you have the points to draw in the PP side, your number won't matter that much however, if you are on the cusp, say 100 max point apps and 75 tags in the PP side, you want a number in the 75 percentile. It's obviously not perfect but you can divide the number of apps into the total seed number possibilities and get a ratio of random numbers per app. If there are 500,000 possibles per app and you know your random number and the seed number, you can make a beer league guess as to whether the computer will hit your number before it fills all the tags. This is assuming an even spread of random numbers across the applicants. My 2018 Antelope random number was 8,734,875,258, and the Antelope seed number was 7,152,648,667. Knowing I "should" be in the max point pool for that hunt, and a good random number, I was sure I'd draw. Even if people jumped in, I should draw in the random side with that number. Turns out a bunch of apps moved in with more points and they only pulled a handful from my point pool but with that good number I drew.

You carry that random number to the random draw as well, so, if you just missed in the PP side, you will have an advantage of a good random number in the random side. If your random number is just under the seed number, you're pretty much hooped unless you have the points or the hunt is under subscribed.

Oregon also creates their application random numbers differently than most others. Oregon creates your app random number when you hit the "submit" button on your app, per species. Wyoming for example, sorts the app database by customer ID then assigns random numbers thru that sorted database.

Knowing how this process works, the oft mentioned "preference to first time Sheep applicants" is impossible, unless the draw computer scans the applicant history and determines he/she is a first time Sheep applicant, then knowing this, the computer jumps forward in time to the seed number party and watches Stonefly and QQ draw those seed numbers, then bounces back to real time and assigns a random number to that first timer just above that seed number, then, the computer would have to look at every subsequent app and assign a higher random number to ensure the first timer drew.

The reality is, ODFW could allow every applicant to choose their own random numbers, at any time during the app period, and until you can look into the future and watch them create those seed numbers, preference to anyone is impossible.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
Neat stuff. When will the results be out....Oregon is last again for no good reason.
Idaho will be after Oregon.

Wyoming will be releasing results on June 20th, which is Oregon’s advertised “release by” date.

Would you say the same for those states, “no good reason”?
 

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Does anyone know the date/time of the seed number draw? I would like to attend this year.
has the process changed? Is this the new process or the one that has existed. I understand the new raffle process and I really think the new system is way more fair and I like that is is fair. It totally messed with my methods for buying raffle tickets, but at the end of the day a fair system is the best system. I will say having excelled at statistics, I partnered with a professor of statistics at the UofO in about 2002ish. I got all the data for the prior 6 years on apps, and who drew what, he and I studied it and we proved (never made public) that 1st time, even up to third time applicants, were more likely to draw sheep tags. I shared this with ODFW. I was never privy to the actual process in creating the numbers or the code at the time (I was told to sue for it). Since then I have near zero confidence in the true fairness of the draw system, not that someone can game it, but it's inherent bias towards certain groups, first time applicants. It sounds like things may have changed, i know now that the raffle system has really changed.
 

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WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
has the process changed? Is this the new process or the one that has existed. I understand the new raffle process and I really think the new system is way more fair and I like that is is fair. It totally messed with my methods for buying raffle tickets, but at the end of the day a fair system is the best system. I will say having excelled at statistics, I partnered with a professor of statistics at the UofO in about 2002ish. I got all the data for the prior 6 years on apps, and who drew what, he and I studied it and we proved (never made public) that 1st time, even up to third time applicants, were more likely to draw sheep tags. I shared this with ODFW. I was never privy to the actual process in creating the numbers or the code at the time (I was told to sue for it). Since then I have near zero confidence in the true fairness of the draw system, not that someone can game it, but it's inherent bias towards certain groups, first time applicants. It sounds like things may have changed, i know now that the raffle system has really changed.
I have been following the public seed number draws for the last few years. I cannot say what the process was 10-15+ years ago.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.
No, it’s based off the seed number and your randomly assigned number for each of the Hunt series.
 

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Idaho will be after Oregon.



Wyoming will be releasing results on June 20th, which is Oregon’s advertised “release by” date.



Would you say the same for those states, “no good reason”?


Absolutely. There is no good reason to be this late.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.


No, it's random as it should be. I'm saying ODFW only gives you one random number per species so if it's a good one, you'll be in a good position in both the pp side and the random side. If your number sucks, you'll be one of the last to draw in the PP side and one of the last in the random side. Wyoming gives you a separate number for the PP side and random side to try and even out your "luck".

I haven't asked if/when the draw process changed, other than to ask how our customer id's were created originally, how they created new ones when we went away from ssn, and how they are currently created.
 

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No, it’s based off the seed number and your randomly assigned number for each of the Hunt series.

Keep saying it; someday you won't have to anymore, but I'm not sure when that day might come :)
 
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