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Old 03-02-2020, 09:52 AM   #1
Tar Heel
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Default Stock Shoppers?

So far my best buy was Clorox in my 401k last week, lol. I recalled another outbreak yrs back sending it sky high.Stuff is selling off the shelves, gone in many stores.
Buffett says the banks look good right now in the loong term, and I added to my already pulverized USB ***. last week. Tech should do well as their is even more telecommunication foretasted. Cruise ship stocks, anyone, lol? Airlines? Alaska is priced good, is mostly domestic, and could rebound once settles down, and it is cheap with a great dividend. Keeping an eye on it.
Glad I was 50% cash in my 401k for the crash, and there are probably more stormy seas ahead. I hope Friday was the bottom, but it could be a long time before we see another all time high.
Most of my 401k is in ETF's, so added a little to dividend fund, SCHD, and tech fund, QQQ, last week too.
Pray this isn't as bad as the market thought, and we come out of this with just another coronavirus, albeit more deadly,... Thoughts and prayers for the ill and deceased.
Any other good stock deals to be had, especially if we get another huge drop??

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Old 03-02-2020, 10:05 AM   #2
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I just sent my 2020 IRA allocation last week but it won't post until later this week. Hoping I won't miss the bounce by the time I can buy.

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Old 03-02-2020, 10:17 AM   #3
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I think Royal Dutch Shell looks like a pretty good buy right now.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:25 AM   #4
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Nephew works at local grocery store that caters to green crowd.

They had some insane number on soap, hand wash tp etc. Like 89k in one shift.

Yesterday at FM, a lady in front of me has a CART full of TP. Most volume buyers will have a better deal than Freddies. And Charmin aint the lowest price point, so I assumed it was for personal use and not business/commercial.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:25 AM   #5
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I am hoping for a big property panic. I have been preparing for that for some time. looks like the perfect storm is brewing.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:54 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flatfish View Post
Yesterday at FM, a lady in front of me has a CART full of TP. Most volume buyers will have a better deal than Freddies. And Charmin aint the lowest price point, so I assumed it was for personal use and not business/commercial.
Please don't squeeze the Charmin!

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Old 03-02-2020, 11:13 AM   #7
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

Picked up some Disney and American Tower.


PS: might be a dead cat bounce? I expect to see volatility for a while longer.
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Old 03-02-2020, 01:01 PM   #8
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

And today is the largest DOW increase EVER!
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Old 03-02-2020, 02:25 PM   #9
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I was also going to say dead cat bounce, seems likely a future panic will occur as more deaths start occurring nation wide. Hard to predict though.
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Old 03-02-2020, 03:03 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hydrophilic View Post
I was also going to say dead cat bounce, seems likely a future panic will occur as more deaths start occurring nation wide. Hard to predict though.
Ya. I'm still holding a lot of cash and I'm normally 100% invested. Methinks there will be more buying opportunities not too far down the road.
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Old 03-02-2020, 03:18 PM   #11
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Visa everybody shopping at home
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Old 03-02-2020, 03:24 PM   #12
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nvs View Post
I think Royal Dutch Shell looks like a pretty good buy right now.
Agree. The next oil issue and the stock will move way up imo. May take a couple years but I may consider.
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Old 03-02-2020, 03:25 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don G Baldi View Post
Picked up some Disney and American Tower.


PS: might be a dead cat bounce? I expect to see volatility for a while longer.

X2

I am gonna wait a bit longer
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:51 PM   #14
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I don't trust this rally we had today at all.

Don, I like the cell tower companies also. I went with Crown Castle instead of American Tower a while back. Crown Castle was supposed to be better positioned for the roll out of 5G and its dividend was a little better. But I like them both.

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Old 03-02-2020, 05:55 PM   #15
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I added a couple of utilities on Friday. After today, both up about 10% over my buy. Decent dividends to protect the downside.
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Old 03-02-2020, 06:25 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Root Hog or Die View Post
I don't trust this rally we had today at all.

Don, I like the cell tower companies also. I went with Crown Castle instead of American Tower a while back. Crown Castle was supposed to be better positioned for the roll out of 5G and its dividend was a little better. But I like them both.
I'll check it out. AMT did me good over the last three months until I bailed right after it topped. Stuck a toe back in today.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:21 AM   #17
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Market going down after Fed announces emergency .5% rate cut. Not good!
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:15 AM   #18
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I kinda wish the Fed would have stayed out of it. Dropping the rate a half point is signaling everyone that they think things are going to get much worse. Had they done nothing today I feel like we might have continued yesterday's upswing.

To quote myself from last week: if you keep stabbing it with knives of course it's going to die.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:19 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ampersat View Post
I kinda wish the Fed would have stayed out of it. Dropping the rate a half point is signaling everyone that they think things are going to get much worse. Had they done nothing today I feel like we might have continued yesterday's upswing.

To quote myself from last week: if you keep stabbing it with knives of course it's going to die.
Agree the half point was a bit too aggressive. But yesterday's bounce was on the expectation of a cut - IMHO. But, looks like the cat is coming back down to earth today. Tippy-toe, not time to buy with both hands.
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Old 03-03-2020, 01:16 PM   #20
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My first reaction to the Fed's dramatic action was similar to you guys.

There is another possibility though. The Fed usually has information that isn't usually widely available. It is possible that they are reacting to information we, and even most professionals, are not yet aware off. Not saying that is %100 percent the case. Just something to keep in the back of your mind if you are looking for the bottom of this market.
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Old 03-03-2020, 02:03 PM   #21
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Did the Fed drop rates simply because of the market volatility recently?

Kinda thought they were more big picture than that.
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Old 03-03-2020, 02:27 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flatfish View Post
Did the Fed drop rates simply because of the market volatility recently?

Kinda thought they were more big picture than that.
Powell isn't the sharpest tool in the drawer.
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:03 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ampersat View Post
Dropping the rate a half point is signaling everyone that they think things are going to get much worse.
Perhaps that is exactly what they think?
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:30 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flatfish View Post
Did the Fed drop rates simply because of the market volatility recently?

Kinda thought they were more big picture than that.

I'm pretty sure there is something beyond that and beyond the economic fear of the spreading corona virus . I've been reading and hearing that wall street is very highly leveraged right now. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that the rapid market sell off last week and the prospect of a slow down in the economy ( and a real slow down in the world economy) has created some type of a credit or liquidity crisis and the Fed is stepping in.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:08 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loper View Post
Perhaps that is exactly what they think?

"Although a rate cut won't cure infections or fix broken supply chains, "it will help boost household and business confidence," Powell noted."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/econo...cut/index.html
If the goal were to boost confidence, a quarter point move would have been better than a half point. A half point drop indicates panic.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:41 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ampersat View Post
"Although a rate cut won't cure infections or fix broken supply chains, "it will help boost household and business confidence," Powell noted."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/econo...cut/index.html
If the goal were to boost confidence, a quarter point move would have been better than a half point. A half point drop indicates panic.
Fed meeting is only 2 weeks off. If they felt the need to do something now, a quarter point and message they will look into it at their regular meeting would have been better. Not impressed with Powell; he was too tight a year ago and now too loose. Don't think he's up to the job.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:35 AM   #27
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The constant phrase "Strong Economy" isnt really true. Average is a better term. Since WW II our average GDP growth rate is 2.3%. It was 2.9% in 2018 which was Strong and 2.3% in 2019 which was average. Consensus pre virus forecast is 1.8%.

The 50 PB cut looks a little desperate.


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Old 03-04-2020, 09:39 PM   #28
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I just have a small account but I doubled my monthly contribution when it dipped. Hope I made the right choice, if I messed up well at least I still have 30 years before I retire.


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Old 03-05-2020, 08:30 AM   #29
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I employ a "stock picker" who's not very smart, but is very cheap.
Vanguard VTI ETF.
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Old 03-05-2020, 08:55 AM   #30
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“I'm pretty sure there is something beyond that and beyond the economic fear of the spreading corona virus . I've been reading and hearing that wall street is very highly leveraged right now. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that the rapid market sell off last week and the prospect of a slow down in the economy ( and a real slow down in the world economy) has created some type of a credit or liquidity crisis and the Fed is stepping in.“

Let’s use Boeing as an example of what’s been going on in the Fortune 500. Boeing has been buying its stock back via mostly cash and some borrowing because money is essentially free from the banks. Why? to drive up the price of its stock. Why would they want to drive up the price of the stock, Because the executives have massive stock options and Wall Street gets rewarded. Boeing has a hiccup and has to go to 10 banks and borrow $12 billion. Now the market dips 12% and cash is tight because of buybacks and global business has slowed prior to the corona virus. Now it’s really going to slow down. The Fortune 500 speed dials the banks to ensure their credit lines and the weaker are exercising those lines. The fed starts injecting like a mad man. Warren Buffet is sitting on a pile of cash drooling right now. the travel industry looking at a financial nightmare for quite awhile. Combined with the 737 max Boeing could be in big trouble. They are not alone.
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Old 03-05-2020, 12:55 PM   #31
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Boeing spent 45 Billion on stock buy backs. They would have been much better off spending the money on R&D. In particular coming up with a new single aisle airplane to replace the 737 which has been around since 1968!

Buy backs are great for shareholders. But at the end of the day all you are doing is reducing capital, increasing debt, leverage and making it more risky company with less capital cushion for hard times..

Their problem is the large number of top execs that came from General Electric and the Jack Welch school of management. The GE people emphasize shareholder value etc. Shareholders have done very well. But the GE folks are bean counters not engineers. They cut expenses on everything including R&D. There was a famous quote around 2001 from one the GE people "We are going to change Boeing from an engineering company to a cost efficient production company". Looks like they over did it! If I had any guts I'd short the damn thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7pointbull View Post
“I'm pretty sure there is something beyond that and beyond the economic fear of the spreading corona virus . I've been reading and hearing that wall street is very highly leveraged right now. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that the rapid market sell off last week and the prospect of a slow down in the economy ( and a real slow down in the world economy) has created some type of a credit or liquidity crisis and the Fed is stepping in.“

Let’s use Boeing as an example of what’s been going on in the Fortune 500. Boeing has been buying its stock back via mostly cash and some borrowing because money is essentially free from the banks. Why? to drive up the price of its stock. Why would they want to drive up the price of the stock, Because the executives have massive stock options and Wall Street gets rewarded. Boeing has a hiccup and has to go to 10 banks and borrow $12 billion. Now the market dips 12% and cash is tight because of buybacks and global business has slowed prior to the corona virus. Now it’s really going to slow down. The Fortune 500 speed dials the banks to ensure their credit lines and the weaker are exercising those lines. The fed starts injecting like a mad man. Warren Buffet is sitting on a pile of cash drooling right now. the travel industry looking at a financial nightmare for quite awhile. Combined with the 737 max Boeing could be in big trouble. They are not alone.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:23 PM   #32
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I would sell Clorox and take what profit you can then buy Kroger.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:28 PM   #33
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PE's were way too high so I upped my 401 cash at year's end. Just couldn't go on like that forever.I think the corporate tax cut money was used for buy backs and dividends, which was additional juice for the market.
Gonna be a bumpy ride. I have liked utilities too, and they have been more resilient, local PGE (POR) and Next Era Energy (NEE) has way pout performed most utilities, and the Vanguard Sector Utility ETF.
Speaking of shopping, bought Kroger stock (own Freddies and a bunch of others) awhile back and it was up almost 8% today on earnings. Still valued fairly good vs the S&P imo with a 2%yield.
IF I had 30 years left I'd buy some ETF's on these huge dips, but don't listen to me, lol. Ii'm still hoping last Friday was bottom, but now, wouldn't bet on it. As I said, imo it may be a long time before we see another all time high.
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Old 03-05-2020, 05:07 PM   #34
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Boeing could be broken up into 6 or 7 companies. People with Boeing pensions have to be sitting on needles. If it’s like any other company their pension is 40 to 60% under funded.
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:57 AM   #35
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Funny, I sold most of my CLX the other day. What's the big deal? I mean chlorine bleach is chlorine bleach, right? Anyway, probably way more sick people than we know of. I read March Madness might be played in empty stadiums, several teams canceling travel to Seattle for various events... but we'll get through this.How we dont have some kind of recession from all this, seeming kinda unlikely. Just didn't forsee it happening this way, so fast.
Do the elbow bump! Enough hand shaking for now, lol.
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Old 03-06-2020, 12:44 PM   #36
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Hope this link works. Article today from NY Times, interview with Boeing CEO. About what you would expect...only worse


I kind of wonder how many other firms have these kind of problems, hidden by the economy.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...ts-challenges/
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Old 03-06-2020, 04:03 PM   #37
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Boeing seems pretty unique in such a highly consolidated industry.

Thoughtful article on buying this correction.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...s-stock-market
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Old 03-09-2020, 11:42 AM   #38
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bought some VOO (sp500 index vanguard)
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:55 PM   #39
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That smacks as a puff piece by the Boeing CEO to get everyone comfortable enough to jump back on a max. The problems inside Boeing did not happen over night. Boeing moved it’s HQ to Chicago in 2001 so it’s been over 20 years to get to this point. They have been forcing out highly paid employees with early retirement programs ever since. So they have lost a metric ton of the quality first employees . They hired some of them back as contract workers to lower their cost but those 1099 employees are not invested in the company as deeply.


The market feeds on fear and greed. Fear is in charge right now but greed will be back in short order. Most drops like this happen over multiple weeks . This happened in one week so no one knows what to make of it yet.
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Old 03-09-2020, 06:38 PM   #40
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Buy high......buy low......don't sell


Enjoy the ride!
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:28 PM   #41
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I am hoping on a little more panic and we will be jumping back in.
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:56 PM   #42
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This ones going to hurt, it’s not a market correction, but a major economic event. I figure it’s more like the 2008 financial crisis.

The sad thing is, this flu hysteria is mostly based on panic and nonsense. But the resulting economic impact is real.

I’ll trade small amounts on the dat to day volatility, but mostly sitting it out in cash / money market.

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Old 03-11-2020, 08:50 AM   #43
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Think the S&P will get down to 2,300? I'd have a hard time not getting back in at that point. Hard to imagine it could go much lower than that.

I think a lot (most) of the economic data coming out in the future is going to be negative
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Old 03-11-2020, 09:41 AM   #44
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Interesting blurb from Goldman Sachs:

Quote:
Goldman Sachs equity strategists believe the financial market fall-out induced by the escalating coronavirus outbreak will ultimately end the more than decade-long bull run for stocks.

“After 11 years, 13% annualized earnings growth and 16% annualized trough-to-peak appreciation, we believe the S&P 500 bull market will soon end,” Goldman said in a note to clients published Wednesday.

The firm said it expects year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies will ultimately be $157 in 2020, marking a decline of 5% versus last year. This was the second time Goldman Sachs slashed its aggregate S&P 500 EPS forecast in two weeks.

“Drivers of our reduced EPS estimate include lower crude oil prices and interest rates that diminish Energy and Financial company profits,” the strategists led by David Kostin said in a note. “Domestic business activity outside of those sectors is also likely to be weaker than we originally forecast, as underscored by reduced or withdrawn guidance from a number of firms in recent weeks.”

The firm mapped out a scenario in which the S&P 500 drops about 15% to 2,450 by mid-2020, as falling growth expectations and consumer confidence weighs on valuations. By the end of 2020, however, the strategists said a recovery in earnings and sentiment will help lift the S&P 500 to 3,200.
Also, on Boeing:

Quote:
Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported on Wednesday that Boeing (BA) is planning a full drawdown of a $13.8 billion loan as early as Friday, as the U.S. based plane-maker struggles with worldwide travel disruptions from the coronavirus. Recall that in January, the aerospace giant secured billions in financing to help it ride out the 737 MAX fiasco.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:20 AM   #45
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This ones going to hurt, it’s not a market correction, but a major economic event. I figure it’s more like the 2008 financial crisis.

The sad thing is, this flu hysteria is mostly based on panic and nonsense. But the resulting economic impact is real.

I’ll trade small amounts on the dat to day volatility, but mostly sitting it out in cash / money market.

.
Ditto and there is still room on the downside. However, the economic conditions are very, very different than the 2008 liquidity bust. As soon as the irrational fear dissipates, and it will, the market will fairly quickly recover. Of course, November events will have an effect as well.
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Old 03-11-2020, 08:26 PM   #46
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Looks like we are in "Wait it out" territory already.

Have had to before ... and will again. 9-11 & 2008 notably, both came back and this one will as well. No fun! Great for new money people.
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Old 03-11-2020, 10:54 PM   #47
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Tom and Rita Hanks tested positive, NBA season suspended, all sorts of flights cancelled. Would guess the slide will continue as people panic, will be interesting to watch how it plays out. I will be buying on the way down!
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:08 AM   #48
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Fed just injected $1 trillion. Printing presses to run 24/7 for the duration
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:14 PM   #49
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Looks like pretty good support right here at 2400 on the S&P 500. 2400 was the bottom on the big sell off at the end of 2018. But I also thought there was good support at 3000 but blew through that in a hurry.

If we dont hold 2400, wow, looks like back to 2016 at around 2000.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...pudWxsfQ%3D%3D
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Old 03-12-2020, 01:46 PM   #50
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Thats the general feeling. But I'm not sure the economy is that great. The talking heads (and others) have been chanting the words "strong economy" for the last year. So everybody assumed that was true but it was not true. Since WW II the ave GDP growth rate has been 2.3%. In 2018 it was 2.9% which was strong. But last year it was 2.2% which is average. The 2020 pre virus consensus was 1.8%. I didnt think we would see the R word but may be inevitable now.

There could be lots of problems with the global economy and the global supply chain on top of the trade and tariff issues. It is true that the banks are in better shape, no serious derivative exposure, no sub prime mtges and some what better capital adequacy. But most commercial sectors, the government and the consumer are deeply in debt If there is a recession that could mean big charge offs coming for the banks ala late 1980's which always creates liquidity problems.

And then there is the Fed. In past recessions the Fed dropped the Fed Funds rate by an average of 4-5%. That rate is now only 1%. I cant see that they have much leverage. Out of ammo.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/

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Ditto and there is still room on the downside. However, the economic conditions are very, very different than the 2008 liquidity bust. As soon as the irrational fear dissipates, and it will, the market will fairly quickly recover. Of course, November events will have an effect as well.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:17 PM   #51
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Companies have been burning cash and expanding because money was almost free. This is a worst case scenario because it happened all at once and business will dry up over night. That’s why the fed has committed $4 trillion. The good news is that once this blows over money will still be even less expense to borrow and oil prices are on the floor. The key is to keep 70% of the market liquid which is the consumer. If they can do that the bounce should be much quicker once they can get commuters commuting again. Investment opportunity abounds if you can see down the road a bit. Investment in pharm and medical consumables to be manufactured domestically. Robotics to work in isolation wards. Whole new frontier fir the brave.
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:03 PM   #52
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Picked up an Amazon leap call today. Looking for some more tomorrow. Can't believe how cheap they are.
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Old 03-12-2020, 07:08 PM   #53
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Interest rates have been affected too. If you have been thinking of doing this, now is the time.

We locked in a 15 year cash out Refi (to pay off other debt like car, boat ect at higher rates). We did a 15 year at 2.75%. That is just silly cheap money. We cut the term by a year, consolidated debt, and save huge amounts of cash flow that will go towards paying it down even quicker.
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Old 03-13-2020, 06:39 PM   #54
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I think Royal Dutch Shell looks like a pretty good buy right now.
Hope you didnt buy at $45/share, I just bought a pile today @ $28/share.
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Old 03-13-2020, 07:30 PM   #55
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I was doing some buying today. Tried to snag some Netflix but it got ahead of me. Today wasn't the bottom. May be close, but I'll get another chance to pick up some more stuff on the cheap.
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Old 03-15-2020, 04:12 PM   #56
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S&P Futures shut down on the 5% circuit breaker after Fed announces emergency rate cut to 0%. Not looking good for tomorrow's open
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Old 03-15-2020, 06:16 PM   #57
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I just saw that rate cut. Next step is negative rates where you pay Uncle Sugar to sit on your money. That's why I avoid bonds and bond funds.
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:18 PM   #58
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S&P Futures shut down on the 5% circuit breaker after Fed announces emergency rate cut to 0%. Not looking good for tomorrow's open
From where I sit, the Fed has very limited ability to affect the markets with rate adjustments and buys. The market is short of liquidity; it is long on fear. Until the number of infections speak and start trending down there will be a damper on economic activity.


Once the fear dissipates and people are back working and kids going to school the economy will pick back up - rapidly. The 2nd quarter earnings will take a big hit, but then recover in the second half. It's time to buy.
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:21 PM   #59
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I think the market is still trying to price in what is going on. It is unprecedented. Will probably take a few more weeks to sort out
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Old 03-15-2020, 10:37 PM   #60
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There are some fantastic deals out there IMO, especially if you are going long. Some stocks have dropped a decades worth in a week. I'll be out of cash tomorrow if my order fills. Will probably make more contributions as the market continues to drop
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