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Old 02-05-2020, 08:13 PM   #1
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Jaws are gonna DROP when the ocean coho forecast is officially released.


Brace for the WORST.

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Old 02-05-2020, 08:16 PM   #2
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Jaws are gonna DROP when the ocean coho forecast is officially released.


Brace for the WORST.
So someone already let it slip?
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Old 02-05-2020, 08:37 PM   #3
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So someone already let it slip?
Slip slidin’ away.....

You know the nearer your destination, the more yer slip slidin’ away!


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Old 02-05-2020, 09:05 PM   #4
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Think DFW is using reverse psychology?

Like how a million were coming back last year, but most of em didn't get the memo......So now they are doing the opposite, and hoping the fish prove them wrong once again.

Because not fixing habitat, not planting fish (To offset the habitat loss) and bad ocean conditions are all meeting on one time and place.

DFW should send the tribes a Thank You card. If it were not for them, there wouldn't have been any return, and DFW would look bad.Oh...too late.
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:53 PM   #5
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Back to the good old bad days of 94-98, think there was zero harvest allowed.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:14 PM   #6
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Back to the good old bad days of 94-98, think there was zero harvest allowed.
Yeah I remember it was bad but we still harvested coho legally in the estuary and ocean. Maybe it was closed after I quit fishing. Back then I quit in August and focused on hunting....
Coho forecast are so up and down and I'm sure glad I'm not in the charter business any more.
ANY good news????
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:26 PM   #7
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Hey, on the bright side they will still let us purchase our tags...….
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:34 PM   #8
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Bottom fishing it is I guess.


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Old 02-05-2020, 10:34 PM   #9
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Interesting, the first thought that came to my mind was last years prediction.
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:30 PM   #10
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I have not bought a fishing lic this year.

Between life commitments and lack of opportunity on salmon.....

Springers are gonna be slow w/short window of peak
Summer kings likely have no season
URBs will be a week of decent fishing in Astoria, and a few days upstream before it's closed
Cohos may be closed, or at a minimum mediocre numbers

Might just focus on other hobbies this year.
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:31 PM   #11
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Interesting, the first thought that came to my mind was last years prediction.
Sorry, that would be nearly FIVE times too optimistic.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:19 AM   #12
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maybe I'll need to keep my electrical license active so I can work some more .
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:15 AM   #13
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ANY good news????
Hanford Reach URB forecast is up from last year (usually pretty reliable)

Sockeye forecast is up and may have a season (but forecast is as accurate as being blindfolded and throwing a dart at a number)
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:55 AM   #14
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So it's going to be the same as last year but with correct numbers instead of ones they pulled out of a hat?
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:53 AM   #15
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Last year was very close to expected for us, but the fish were smaller than expected, & they did not grow as fast as expected either. Same old story, Salmon, Sturgeon, Halibut...??? all on the decline, I'm not ready to throw in the towel...yet, if they have to close it down for some years, than so be it.
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:57 AM   #16
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Wuhan cohovirus?
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:59 AM   #17
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Salmon recovery is a multi - million dollar industry , results may vary .
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Old 02-06-2020, 09:07 AM   #18
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So... all the rumors about ocean conditions improving were simply rumors, as were the predicted returns. Like Derrick, lots of hunting and other stuff this year.
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Old 02-06-2020, 01:57 PM   #19
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when will the fall forecasts be made public?
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Old 02-06-2020, 02:14 PM   #20
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when will the fall forecasts be made public?
Soon. North of Falcon process gets going in March.
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Old 02-06-2020, 02:46 PM   #21
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More Doom. Puget sound hatch steelhead worst ever. I was going to copy link but lost it


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Old 02-06-2020, 02:49 PM   #22
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I'm a bit surprised about the number of comments about how far off the forecast was last year, but with that said, I do not fish the big C.

Offshore it sure seemed to me to meet or exceed expectations. I was only able to make it out 11 times (wife had knee replacement in mid July), but we limited the boat all but 2 times, usually with three people fishing. To me that was great fishing. Not sure what happened to the fish after we finished, and I don't know how the forecast compared to what went over Bonneville.

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Old 02-06-2020, 02:55 PM   #23
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Hanford Reach URB forecast is up from last year (usually pretty reliable)

Yeah, but fishing on the Hanford Reach sucks. You can fish for days between take-downs. It's snaggy as hell and you can expect to lose a lot of gear. With all the rocks and shallow areas, you easily take out your motor's lower or find your boat on high ground if you don't know where you're going. There's an underwater rock formation right on the line that's nicknamed "the can opener" for good reason. If you do get lucky enough to bring a fish to the boat before you hit a rock and sink your boat, the fish is usually an inedible old boot and on top of that it's contaminated with radioactive waste. And don't get me started on the crowds, you can walk across the river going boat-to-boat. I say avoid it at all costs. A guy has to be a masochist to fish there.

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Old 02-06-2020, 03:01 PM   #24
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I'm a bit surprised about the number of comments about how far off the forecast was last year, but with that said, I do not fish the big C.



Offshore it sure seemed to me to meet or exceed expectations. I was only able to make it out 11 times (wife had knee replacement in mid July), but we limited the boat all but 2 times, usually with three people fishing. To me that was great fishing. Not sure what happened to the fish after we finished, and I don't know how the forecast compared to what went over Bonneville.



radke


Your right some people had a great year! Saltwater wise. I heard good reports from up off LA Push/Neah Bay Area about easy limits and best year ever. Heard SF Bay Area was also good. Easy limits.
It definitely wasn’t all doom and gloom.
As far as local fish-Where did they go? Maybe warm ocean took a toll on them. Maybe we caught too many early on in the salt. I don’t know.
Also the Estuary was never really consistent. One day hammer time next day doom and gloom.
Hopefully better news in 2021 for coho.


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Old 02-06-2020, 03:08 PM   #25
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Let's not forget about the gloomy Col rv Steelhead count for 2019, only 77k passed over Bonneville.
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Old 02-06-2020, 03:26 PM   #26
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I'm a bit surprised about the number of comments about how far off the forecast was last year, but with that said, I do not fish the big C.

Offshore it sure seemed to me to meet or exceed expectations. I was only able to make it out 11 times (wife had knee replacement in mid July), but we limited the boat all but 2 times, usually with three people fishing. To me that was great fishing. Not sure what happened to the fish after we finished, and I don't know how the forecast compared to what went over Bonneville.

radke
The ocean started off great last year outside the CR, and it was looking like we would hit the prediction. But by late July and early August it was obvious something was wrong. The bite was inconsistent and many days way further offshore than it should have been. We hoped it was just the warm water, but they never really showed in the river.

The Coho that did show last year were predominantly unclipped. It wasn't till later in September and early October that the clip rate got decent in my boat.

Let's hope they're off the wrong direction this year and we get a nice surprise from the Coho gods.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:01 PM   #27
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The ocean started off great last year outside the CR, and it was looking like we would hit the prediction. But by late July and early August it was obvious something was wrong. The bite was inconsistent and many days way further offshore than it should have been. We hoped it was just the warm water, but they never really showed in the river.

The Coho that did show last year were predominantly unclipped. It wasn't till later in September and early October that the clip rate got decent in my boat.

Let's hope they're off the wrong direction this year and we get a nice surprise from the Coho gods.
We fished early Aug off the CR also, had to go further & further each day, for less than 1/2 boat limits of small Coho, only fished the mornings tho, early season off Newport/Depoe was limits every time, mostly Coho, but some Nooks mixed in the batch.

We'll just have to wait & see what this year brings?, no reason to be gloomy just yet.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:43 PM   #28
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ODFW will look like hero's when way more than predicted show up and they increase the limit to 4 including unclipped. All will be forgotten. Somebody slap me, I must be dreaming.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:07 PM   #29
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ODFW will look like hero's when way more than predicted show up and they increase the limit to 4 including unclipped. All will be forgotten. Somebody slap me, I must be dreaming.
In 2013-2015, Mr North was heard saying "If there's a surplus, we will conduct a mop up with nets"

In 2014, catch rates were record breaking, Yet they didn't up sport angler allowable harvest.

AUP does not allow me to share my true feelings with you here.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:14 PM   #30
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Yeah, but fishing on the Hanford Reach sucks. You can fish for days between take-downs. It's snaggy as hell and you can expect to lose a lot of gear. With all the rocks and shallow areas, you easily take out your motor's lower or find your boat on high ground if you don't know where you're going. There's an underwater rock formation right on the line that's nicknamed "the can opener" for good reason. If you do get lucky enough to bring a fish to the boat before you hit a rock and sink your boat, the fish is usually an inedible old boot and on top of that it's contaminated with radioactive waste. And don't get me started on the crowds, you can walk across the river going boat-to-boat. I say avoid it at all costs. A guy has to be a masochist to fish there.
100% correct. That place is a dumpster fire.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:25 PM   #31
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Salmon recovery is a multi - million dollar industry , results may vary .
Your exactly right, 560 million annually for the Columbia salmon recovery, and 35 % goes to the money financiers.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:29 PM   #32
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100% correct. That place is a dumpster fire.
Yep. I really hate the week I spend camping in the dust with ****** blue blue rooms every year!

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Old 02-06-2020, 07:12 PM   #33
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Yeah, but fishing on the Hanford Reach sucks. You can fish for days between take-downs. It's snaggy as hell and you can expect to lose a lot of gear. With all the rocks and shallow areas, you easily take out your motor's lower or find your boat on high ground if you don't know where you're going. There's an underwater rock formation right on the line that's nicknamed "the can opener" for good reason. If you do get lucky enough to bring a fish to the boat before you hit a rock and sink your boat, the fish is usually an inedible old boot and on top of that it's contaminated with radioactive waste. And don't get me started on the crowds, you can walk across the river going boat-to-boat. I say avoid it at all costs. A guy has to be a masochist to fish there.


We had a very good year for coho out of Newport also fish were definitely small and like you said they grew very little.


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Old 02-06-2020, 08:33 PM   #34
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100% correct. That place is a dumpster fire.
That's why I'm going with a zodiac this year. Built in bumpers. I should be able to carry it down to the water and skip the 2 hour launch line.

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Old 02-06-2020, 09:23 PM   #35
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Are you guys saying this just to us west siders out? Or is it that bad? . I really have no desire to kill fish at the Reach but would definitely be into helping w broodstock.


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Old 02-07-2020, 08:21 AM   #36
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Yeah, but fishing on the Hanford Reach sucks. You can fish for days between take-downs. It's snaggy as hell and you can expect to lose a lot of gear. With all the rocks and shallow areas, you easily take out your motor's lower or find your boat on high ground if you don't know where you're going. There's an underwater rock formation right on the line that's nicknamed "the can opener" for good reason. If you do get lucky enough to bring a fish to the boat before you hit a rock and sink your boat, the fish is usually an inedible old boot and on top of that it's contaminated with radioactive waste. And don't get me started on the crowds, you can walk across the river going boat-to-boat. I say avoid it at all costs. A guy has to be a masochist to fish there.
And that's on a good day.

Is this where the term URB (Up River Boot) came from?
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Old 02-07-2020, 10:34 AM   #37
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Are you guys saying this just to us west siders out? Or is it that bad?
Note the locations of the posters, we sure don't grow many famous potatoes on the west side
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Old 02-07-2020, 10:37 AM   #38
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In 2013-2015, Mr North was heard saying "If there's a surplus, we will conduct a mop up with nets"

In 2014, catch rates were record breaking, Yet they didn't up sport angler allowable harvest.

AUP does not allow me to share my true feelings with you here.
I remember a 3 coho bag in September of 2014. Actually lots of pics on my phone of a cooler full of coho when it was 3 fish. Got tired of fish, ran out of room and people to give it to.


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Old 02-07-2020, 10:40 AM   #39
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Your right some people had a great year! Saltwater wise. I heard good reports from up off LA Push/Neah Bay Area about easy limits and best year ever. Heard SF Bay Area was also good. Easy limits.
It definitely wasn’t all doom and gloom.
As far as local fish-Where did they go? Maybe warm ocean took a toll on them. Maybe we caught too many early on in the salt. I don’t know.
Also the Estuary was never really consistent. One day hammer time next day doom and gloom.
Hopefully better news in 2021 for coho.


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Yeah, the coho fishing off the Columbia was pretty good last year, but the chinook fishing compared to other recent years sucked. Of course, there is that factor of all the Columbia chinook taken by Alaskan and Canadian trollers before those chinook get a chance to come home.
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Old 02-07-2020, 12:23 PM   #40
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With the first part of the 2019 season being HEAVILY laden with unclipped fish the catch was great but the keep marginal. My unanswered question remains... what was the mortality of all the coho hooked up, bleeding and thrown back? THAT still needs to be addressed for 2020.

Until the ocean currents change and the ocean gets colder. forage for fish is not going to get better for us. The charts show that a warmer ocean doesn't bode well for forage fish and therefore they go further west to entertain the international fishermen. That said, El Nina/El Nino needs to flip. Blame it on climate change if you wish...

Preserving the fish that return seems to be the best solution IMO because If we increase hatchery production it only decreases the ocean forage available further. I do agree that increases in hatchery production and improving wild fish habitat WILL eventually help but doing so right now does nothing to increase size, number and mortality improvement.
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Old 02-07-2020, 12:35 PM   #41
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SST is below normal right now in the eastern Pacific. Let's hope that continues.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:33 PM   #42
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Yeah, the coho fishing off the Columbia was pretty good last year, but the chinook fishing compared to other recent years sucked. Of course, there is that factor of all the Columbia chinook taken by Alaskan and Canadian trollers before those chinook get a chance to come home.
Canadians laid off much of the run last year.

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Old 02-07-2020, 04:15 PM   #43
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I remember a 3 coho bag in September of 2014. Actually lots of pics on my phone of a cooler full of coho when it was 3 fish. Got tired of fish, ran out of room and people to give it to.


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All summer, fishing was silly good. They knew a ton of fish were there. But chose to have mop up instead of letting sports have a chance to harvest selectively.
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Old 02-07-2020, 05:58 PM   #44
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too many coho die after being hooked. all fishing for them needs to be stopped by all persons until it is crystal clear the fish have recovered to a sustainable population.


we need to decide if we want wishful thinking or a real chance of turning things around before its totally too late and we may have reached that stage already.
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Old 02-07-2020, 08:36 PM   #45
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too many coho die after being hooked. all fishing for them needs to be stopped by all persons until it is crystal clear the fish have recovered to a sustainable population.


we need to decide if we want wishful thinking or a real chance of turning things around before its totally too late and we may have reached that stage already.
We also need to be honest about how many unclipped Coho are actually hatchery fish.
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Old 02-07-2020, 08:38 PM   #46
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Hey, on the bright side they will still let us purchase our tags...….

And a Columbia River Endorsement which they wont enforce.
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Old 02-08-2020, 05:39 AM   #47
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Until the ocean currents change and the ocean gets colder.
Are we sure this is even a fair assumption anymore?
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Old 02-08-2020, 08:32 AM   #48
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We also need to be honest about how many unclipped Coho are actually hatchery fish.
It's just a diversion. As long as they are going to use adipose or vent clip to determine what can be bonked and what can't, it doesn't matter.
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Old 02-08-2020, 09:44 AM   #49
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Are we sure this is even a fair assumption anymore?
Yes it is a reasonable statement.

In 2014-2015, we had the biggest salmon returns any of us had ever seen here.

Habitat has not changed a measurable degree.

So, unless they are stocking less fish (IN some instances, that's the case), the big variable is ocean. Which drives weather. Which has a huge influence on these fish in freshwater (In some cases, that's over a year in freshwater)

Here we are 5 years later, and its suckopalooza.

Seeing how habitat hasn't changed, I dunno why we would think they wont bounce back with the next ocean cycle.
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Old 02-08-2020, 09:49 AM   #50
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Yes it is a reasonable statement.



In 2014-2015, we had the biggest salmon returns any of us had ever seen here.



Habitat has not changed a measurable degree.



So, unless they are stocking less fish (IN some instances, that's the case), the big variable is ocean. Which drives weather. Which has a huge influence on these fish in freshwater (In some cases, that's over a year in freshwater)



Here we are 5 years later, and its suckopalooza.



Seeing how habitat hasn't changed, I dunno why we would think they wont bounce back with the next ocean cycle.


Early to 2000’s we’re pretty incredible and big fish! Anybody seeing a trend?

They will be back


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Old 02-08-2020, 10:24 AM   #51
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While I agree that habitat matters and we all should work toward improvements, I also agree that we have had some great runs, both back in the 2014 years and the 2002 years. Not horrible runs some other years.

Habitat has been basically the same. So the recent low fish runs have something else as major cause. I am a believer that ocean conditions is clearly part of that major cause. What worries me is if the other part of that major cause is a significant reduction of hatchery fish. If that keeps up, even ocean conditions may not solve the problem when the next cool ocean cycle happens.


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Old 02-08-2020, 02:31 PM   #52
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While I agree that habitat matters and we all should work toward improvements, I also agree that we have had some great runs, both back in the 2014 years and the 2002 years. Not horrible runs some other years.

Habitat has been basically the same. So the recent low fish runs have something else as major cause. I am a believer that ocean conditions is clearly part of that major cause. What worries me is if the other part of that major cause is a significant reduction of hatchery fish. If that keeps up, even ocean conditions may not solve the problem when the next cool ocean cycle happens.


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Besides ocean conditions per se, there might be some additional difficulty with lack of bait fish. I am not saying that is a fact. I am just guessing that it is a possibility.
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Old 02-08-2020, 02:32 PM   #53
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What worries me is if the other part of that major cause is a significant reduction of hatchery fish.
A great example of what happens when you stop stocking hatchery fish, and you don't fix habitat is coast cohos. Hatch fish matter until habitat is fixed.
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Old 02-08-2020, 03:40 PM   #54
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Doc isn't posting it, but the number I've heard is 180k Coho this year. Pretty sad.
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Old 02-08-2020, 04:42 PM   #55
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Doc isn't posting it, but the number I've heard is 180k Coho this year. Pretty sad.
Since the prediction of last year was 800,000+-, how can we give any credibility to the forecast this year???
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Old 02-08-2020, 06:57 PM   #56
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Doc isn't posting it, but the number I've heard is 180k Coho this year. Pretty sad.


That’s pretty bad although I have seen very very good saltwater coho bites on low return years off the Columbia. Some of those Coho where probably from other systems although. Also if my memory serves me right we had a lot of years of Sunday thru Thursday Ocean fishing and then we would fish the river Friday and Saturday.


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Old 02-12-2020, 02:31 PM   #57
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Doc isn't posting it, but the number I've heard is 180k Coho this year. Pretty sad.
Woomp there it is. Or isn't. Looks like you're mole was a good source:

http://www.theoutdoorline.com/blog/p...wOrYGFeX9mkGZE
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Old 02-12-2020, 09:10 PM   #58
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Woomp there it is. Or isn't. Looks like you're mole was a good source:

http://www.theoutdoorline.com/blog/p...wOrYGFeX9mkGZE
I used to do okay as an "information consultant".

That info didn't even come from a usual source. Don't know why it wasn't out earlier.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:29 AM   #59
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181k Columbia coho is what I read. 130k for the A run, and 50k for the B run.

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Old 02-14-2020, 12:38 PM   #60
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50k b runs.

If clip rates are near last years ratios......wow.

The good news is, my trap and skeet skills should improve
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