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Old 03-15-2016, 08:06 AM   #661
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

That's possible. But moot if they go with option 3 and close the big pond. A complication would be figuring out what % of the ocean catch is CR bound fish. Many, most, probably, but certainly not all.

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Old 04-11-2016, 07:21 PM   #662
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Originally Posted by Flatfish View Post
Is it an option to transfer unused quota from the ocean to freshwater?
If it happens PRE-season, it is NOT considered a transfer. The remainder of the 41% LRH impact not consumed by PSC/PFMC ocean fisheries (AK/BC/PNW) is allocated to inside fisheries through the NOF process. Northern intercept PSC fisheries are poised to take a bigger chunk than they did last year. Our local PNW ocean fisheries are currently being held hostage at PFMC and likely to take a smaller chunk than last year. We'll see how it all shakes out in the next three days.

My understanding is that once the allocations are finalized at PFMC/NOF, unused ocean LRH impact may NOT transferred to inside fisheries.
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Old 04-14-2016, 06:21 PM   #663
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

With the ocean package virtually set in stone for 2016, attention can turn to hammering out the inside fisheries. The negotiators are gonna take a break over the weekend before trudging forward to craft a final Buoy 10 season.

Factors to consider....

Chinook abundance index for 2016 PSC fisheries (northern intercept) is considerably higher this year than last. That means AK and BC are gonna be taking bigger bites out of our CR returns.... LRH tules and URB's (including SRW's). This is a done deal

PFMC salmon fisheries have been significantly curtailed for 2016. LRH impact in PFMC fisheries will be down for 2016. This is a done deal.

The interesting twist in all of this is that with the Alaskans claiming a bigger share of our CR stocks, they'll be consuming a large chunk of SRW impacts (ESA-listed Snake River Wild fall chinook).... enough so that SRW's may well become the rate-limiting stock for inside fisheries. This hasn't been an issue in recent years as LRH tules have been the conservation driver for most of the past decade.

Unlike LRH impact that is limited to the reach below Warrior (Lewis River mouth), SRW impacts are consumed up and down the entire river. Stay tuned to see how this all plays out in the days to come.
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Old 04-14-2016, 07:59 PM   #664
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by eyeFISH View Post
With the ocean package virtually set in stone for 2016, attention can turn to hammering out the inside fisheries. The negotiators are gonna take a break over the weekend before trudging forward to craft a final Buoy 10 season.

Factors to consider....

Chinook abundance index for 2016 PSC fisheries (northern intercept) is considerably higher this year than last. That means AK and BC are gonna be taking bigger bites out of our CR returns.... LRH tules and URB's (including SRW's). This is a done deal

PFMC salmon fisheries have been significantly curtailed for 2016. LRH impact in PFMC fisheries will be down for 2016. This is a done deal.

The interesting twist in all of this is that with the Alaskans claiming a bigger share of our CR stocks, they'll be consuming a large chunk of SRW impacts (ESA-listed Snake River Wild fall chinook).... enough so that SRW's may well become the rate-limiting stock for inside fisheries. This hasn't been an issue in recent years as LRH tules have been the conservation driver for most of the past decade.

Unlike LRH impact that is limited to the reach below Warrior (Lewis River mouth), SRW impacts are consumed up and down the entire river. Stay tuned to see how this all plays out in the days to come.
Doc, what does that do to the upriver fisheries upriver from the Lewis? same as it has last few years with 2 fish limit or is that gonna be cut too?
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Old 04-14-2016, 08:15 PM   #665
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

For the guys fishin' above the Snake confluence, nothing.
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Old 04-14-2016, 08:50 PM   #666
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

good thing they are all boots past that point. no need to come up that far folks!
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Old 04-14-2016, 08:51 PM   #667
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From the CR Policy....

Upriver Bright Fall Chinook Salmon

The presumptive path for the management of Upriver Bright fall Chinook salmon fisheries is summarized in Appendix Table D. Subject to the adaptive management provisions of this policy, the Department will manage Upriver Bright fall Chinook fisheries consistent with the Guiding Principles and the following objectives:

During 2013-2016, the Department will assign no more than 70% of the ESA-impact for Snake River Wild fall Chinook to mainstem recreational fisheries to meet management objectives and the balance (not less than 30%) to off-channel and mainstem commercial fisheries.
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Old 04-14-2016, 09:16 PM   #668
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

I'm very unfamiliar with how the seasons are set, but this is taken right from a Seattle times article, only mentions a retention hatchery nooks, am I to understand the B10 fishery is not fully determined yet? No mention of URB retention. "The popular Buoy-10 salmon fishery at the Columbia River mouth will open Aug. 1 with an expected catch of 20,000 hatchery-marked chinook in August and September".

I'm all for a one-and-done, not coho retention, but for god's sake, give us a shot at another good URB forecast.

Someone, help me understand how this all works.
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Old 04-14-2016, 09:20 PM   #669
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Someone, help me understand how this all works.
Here is the short version.

They keep giving Canada and Alaska more and more fish.

They don't fix the ESA stocks.

We take it in the shorts.
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Old 04-14-2016, 11:06 PM   #670
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

More excerpts from the CR Policy....

The Department will seek to achieve the following recreational fisheries objectives:

Buoy 10 season – August 1 to Labor Day

Tongue Point to Warrior Rock season – August 1 to September 7 as non-mark-selective and September 8-14 as mark-selective

Warrior Rock to Bonneville Dam season – August 1-October 31.


...

Regarding the prescriptive rec share of SRW from Appdx D:

Share necessary to meet recreational objectives, but not more than 70%

It is expected that recreational fishery objectives (Buoy 10 season August 1-Labor Day; Tongue Point to Warrior Rock season August 1-September 7 as non-mark selective and September 8-14 as mark selective and Warrior Rock to Bonneville Dam season August 1-October 31 when the season is assumed to be essentially complete) will be met in most years at less than a 50% share of Snake River Wild fall Chinook impacts (see Appendix B, Table B.3). However, the recreational fishery share will likely need to be increased to meet objectives in years when Upriver Bright fall Chinook returns are significantly less than recent years.


...

Looks like 2016 WILL be one of those years that >50% share of SRW impacts will be NECESSARY to achieve the rec objectives:

Buoy 10 season – August 1 to Labor Day

Tongue Point to Warrior Rock season – August 1 to September 7 as non-mark-selective and September 8-14 as mark-selective

Warrior Rock to Bonneville Dam season – August 1-October 31.
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Old 04-15-2016, 03:15 PM   #671
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Quote:
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..... but for god's sake, give us a shot at another good URB forecast.

Someone, help me understand how this all works.
Amen, brotha.... AMEN!


CR Policy places a rec priority on the utilization of mainstem lower river fall chinook... allocating up to 70% of the LRH and SRW impacts to make that rec priority happen.

Just looking to free up enough SRW to keep B-10 going thru Labor Day without MSF.

I believe that objective is consistent with the policy.

...

Look... if B-10 can't be fully liberalized in the setting of a million fish run of fall chinook WITHOUT the limiting tule constraints we've had to endure the past decade, then what's the point? We'll NEVER get a better chance to make it happen. If not now, WHEN?

Rec fisheries for salmon are getting way-layed across western WA for 2016. The ONLY bright spot in the whole picture is CR chinook.

If we can't achieve a fully liberalized season at B-10 this year, then it simply CAN'T be done.... EVER! That would be a shame!
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Old 04-15-2016, 05:49 PM   #672
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by NWRiverWolf View Post
I'm very unfamiliar with how the seasons are set, but this is taken right from a Seattle times article, only mentions a retention hatchery nooks, am I to understand the B10 fishery is not fully determined yet? No mention of URB retention. "The popular Buoy-10 salmon fishery at the Columbia River mouth will open Aug. 1 with an expected catch of 20,000 hatchery-marked chinook in August and September".

I'm all for a one-and-done, not coho retention, but for god's sake, give us a shot at another good URB forecast.

Someone, help me understand how this all works.
It's a lot of smoke and mirrors.

There really isn't a need to eliminate coho retention at Buoy 10. Those are hatchery fish, and while it's not a big return projected, there are plenty coming to have a fishery. The whole reason for eliminating coho retention was to prevent anglers from continuing to catch and release tules and eat up those impacts under the guise of looking for their coho, especially when few early coho are expected.

From what I'm hearing most of the numbers and modeling the sports group was working with at the March 17 meeting have changed quite a bit. The goalposts keep getting moved around and tilted on us. Some of it could make things better, some possibly worse. But it sorta feels like the day we spent arguing in March didn't matter a whole lot in the end.

The sudden in river issue with Snake River Wilds timing is interesting. This could obviously create some issues in the sport fishery, but what about in river commercial fisheries?

With the 2017 deadline of the Kitz plan looming, this could be an adaptive management issue moving forward. With coho numbers down and now the Snake fish issue, it seems like the fall mop up fisheries would have to be conducted on a much tighter constraint. I'm sure the commercials will have something to say about that, and seek further adaptive management to help ease their pain.

As Doc has pointed out though, the river needs to be managed for a sport priority. Last year sport fishing didn't last until Labor Day at Buoy 10, and in the end what was supposed to be a 70/30 split between sport and commercial, came out at 60/40.

The sport side needs to keep making noise to realize a true sport priority, especially this year.

We've already lost our June hatchery chinook fishery in the ocean (I personally can't believe more people aren't upset about this), and now our in river fisheries seem to be under attack.

All this with a million plus fish returning. What happens if our chinook drop by half?
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Old 04-18-2016, 07:38 AM   #673
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

Just to make sure I got this straight....

Tules were bad. But now not so much.

But.....

Now they have managed a new strain onto the bad list?

Must be good money in it for DFW to get so many strains ESA listings.
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Old 04-18-2016, 08:18 AM   #674
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Just to make sure I got this straight....

Tules were bad. But now not so much.

But.....

Now they have managed a new strain onto the bad list?

Must be good money in it for DFW to get so many strains ESA listings.
Check out the season setting thread I posted. There should be plenty of Chinook for a full sport season.

Unfortunately, the last modeling numbers were gifting the commercials the majority of SRW impacts for an unknown reason. That seems to be in direct conflict with the reform plans as well.

People need to get involved and ask why the sports fishery isn't getting the 70% of the available fish we were promised when we gave up barbs, smolts, fees, and bubble closures.

This is going down soon. Once the seasons are set, that's it. If we can't get a decent fishery through mid September this year, it isn't ever going to happen.
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Old 04-19-2016, 06:25 AM   #675
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flatfish View Post
Just to make sure I got this straight....

Tules were bad. But now not so much.

But.....

Now they have managed a new strain onto the bad list?

Must be good money in it for DFW to get so many strains ESA listings.
My take from this is that Tule constraints have been sufficient to protect Snake River Wilds. Which have been a concern for decades, btw. With Tules not restricting the catch this year, the Snake fish are the next limiting factor.

Kind of like a car with two bad tires. One tire can only handle 50 mph, the other 60. No need to address the 60 mph tire when you can only go 50. But fix the 50, and you're still limited to under 60.
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Old 04-19-2016, 07:31 AM   #676
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

To carry on with your tire speed analogy....

The problem is your 60 MPH tire would actually go faster (farther) perhaps up to 70 MPH... if only it were properly inflated.

You see, we may up against a total 15% SRW impacts inriver, but it is shared by comm and rec.

The policy directs that the SRW's be shared with a rec priority.... UP TO 70% of the impact can be used to achieve the specified priority rec objectives.
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Old 04-19-2016, 08:02 AM   #677
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To carry on with your tire speed analogy....

The problem is your 60 MPH tire would actually go faster (farther) perhaps up to 70 MPH... if only it were properly inflated.

You see, we may up against a total 15% SRW impacts inriver, but it is shared by comm and rec.

The policy directs that the SRW's be shared with a rec priority.... UP TO 70% of the impact can be used to achieve the specified priority rec objectives.
And we failed to meet the in river rec objectives last year.

Not only did the lower river close before labor day, but in the end the sport/commercial split came out at 60/40.

So why are they still modeling for commercials to take the majority of SRW impacts?

I thought the reforms were LAW? 70/30 split by LAW.

It seems the allocation wars rage on.
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Old 04-19-2016, 08:59 AM   #678
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Seems to me, the problem is not if the car can drive 50 or 60.

The problem is, DFW/ PMFC/ Tribes/ Etc. manages fish onto ESA list. Then nobody fixes it.

Snake fish might get some support by knocking down a few dams to prop up populations (Will not happen in my lifetime by the time all the lawsuits play out. But it's a chance.).

Tules, unlike upriver fish, will not be fixed by knocking down upper river dams (Unless you think Bonnie is coming down.). And the dams on the Cow, NFL, etc.

It baffles be that an ESA stock is harvested at a 35-40% rate. Clipped only ocean take would allow an immediate double digit recovery.
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:41 PM   #679
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When do we find out if it first legal salmon to the boat must be harvested at buoy ten?
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:46 PM   #680
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When do we find out if it first legal salmon to the boat must be harvested at buoy ten?
Not even being discussed to date... likely to be a NON-issue.
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Old 04-19-2016, 04:49 PM   #681
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Default Re: Official 2015 Buoy 10 Thread

First hooked/landed is for the clam digging thread. That would affect the Tule impact far more than C&R.
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Old 04-20-2016, 06:20 AM   #682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flatfish View Post
Seems to me, the problem is not if the car can drive 50 or 60.

The problem is, DFW/ PMFC/ Tribes/ Etc. manages fish onto ESA list. Then nobody fixes it.

Snake fish might get some support by knocking down a few dams to prop up populations (Will not happen in my lifetime by the time all the lawsuits play out. But it's a chance.).

Tules, unlike upriver fish, will not be fixed by knocking down upper river dams (Unless you think Bonnie is coming down.). And the dams on the Cow, NFL, etc.

It baffles be that an ESA stock is harvested at a 35-40% rate. Clipped only ocean take would allow an immediate double digit recovery.
Wasn't arguing management policy, only offering a possible explanation for why SRW's are affecting quotas this year and not years past.

But if you want to talk management---About 1,000,000 Chinook are headed for the CR. The CR area ocean guideline is 10,000. Just how many SRW's do you think you'd save by going mark selective out there? And why clipped only in the ocean and not the river?
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Old 04-20-2016, 06:31 AM   #683
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And we failed to meet the in river rec objectives last year.

.
A three fish limit from I-5 to dam rather than Marker 50 to dam would solve that problem.
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Old 04-20-2016, 07:08 AM   #684
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Wasn't arguing management policy, only offering a possible explanation for why SRW's are affecting quotas this year and not years past.

But if you want to talk management---About 1,000,000 Chinook are headed for the CR. The CR area ocean guideline is 10,000. Just how many SRW's do you think you'd save by going mark selective out there? And why clipped only in the ocean and not the river?
My point is, several stocks are listed. Some will not recover. Mankind is not willing to make the sacrifices necessary to do so.
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