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Old 06-19-2019, 09:39 AM   #361
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by mac9 View Post
500ish
9,999,999 possible numbers
500ish applicants
20,000 - if all 500 applicants are evenly distributed across the 9,999,999 then they are each 20,000 numbers apart (9,999,999/500)
6th Puts you 6th in line for a tag. 121,000/20,000 = 6th

I'd say you have a chance, but not a great one.

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Old 06-19-2019, 08:32 PM   #362
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This is my firts time tracking seed numbers. I knew about them but didn't take the time to understand how it works. I'm glad that I started following this year. I think it's interesting and adds to the excitement leading up to the draw.

I am 26,132 above the seed for Warner archery antelope. By my calcs there should be one person ahead of me out of 12 tags. I'll update if I draw. The rest of my numbers were pretty far off.
It worked for me. I drew the Warner archery antelope tag out of the 25% pool. No other tags drawn.
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Old 06-19-2019, 09:13 PM   #363
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Did not draw as expected based on the seed numbers. My 40% chance on the Trout Creek rifle hunt ended up being the 60% percent chance of not drawing it. Hopefully next year.

Congrats to all that drew.
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Old 06-19-2019, 09:35 PM   #364
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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It worked for me. I drew the Warner archery antelope tag out of the 25% pool. No other tags drawn.
I’m building points for this hunt in hopes to draw in the 25% pool. Congratulations, and I hope to hear how it goes!
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Old 06-20-2019, 03:26 AM   #365
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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This is the first year I've paid any attention to the seed numbers. It certainly has added some interesting discussion and extra anticipation for this years draw. Well, at least for some.

Statistically speaking, I should draw a bighorn sheep tag but may not due to the randomness of the draw. My application number is about 25K over the seed number, with a random number assigned for about every 30K applicants with two tags given.


Patience is a virtue.....so they say!
So following up, it worked. Selected for West Deschutes No 2 (532C2)
I've been quietly planning this hunt since the seed numbers came out. Now it's a reality!
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Old 06-20-2019, 06:08 AM   #366
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Originally Posted by elkmagnet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by elkmagnet View Post
This is the first year I've paid any attention to the seed numbers. It certainly has added some interesting discussion and extra anticipation for this years draw. Well, at least for some.

Statistically speaking, I should draw a bighorn sheep tag but may not due to the randomness of the draw. My application number is about 25K over the seed number, with a random number assigned for about every 30K applicants with two tags given.


Patience is a virtue.....so they say!
So following up, it worked. Selected for West Deschutes No 2 (532C2)
I've been quietly planning this hunt since the seed numbers came out. Now it's a reality!
Congrats!
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Old 06-20-2019, 07:27 AM   #367
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Worked out for my wife! She drew 139R1 Metolius Late Archery from the 25% pool.. She was only 11,631 over the seed number..

Last edited by BullElkKiller; 06-20-2019 at 07:29 AM.
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Old 06-20-2019, 07:58 AM   #368
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I was only 5k over the buck deer seed.... for a tag that only takes 1 point.
Shoulda put in for late white river instead! LOL. Oh well, get to hunt 2 years in a row and hopefully I’ll get a chance at another tasty whitetail.

I know someone who drew a premium buck tag, at 200k above the seed!
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:02 AM   #369
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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If my math is right I will Draw Wenaha Elk Bow any Elk 256R1. I currently have only 1 elk point so I am in the random draw pool.

I have Elk Application#5,923,234 vs the Seed #5,919,336. Only a difference of 3,898 or 0.039% Based on the math I should be statistically #2 in line for one of the 10 Tags that are allocated to the 25% random draw.

Just need to wait and see for confirmation

All of my other apps are off by Hundreds of thousands or millions vs the Seed number...
It worked, I drew Wenaha Bow Elk with 1 point .
3898 away from the seed number with 10 tags available and 2700ish applicants.
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:03 AM   #370
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by elkmagnet View Post
So following up, it worked. Selected for West Deschutes No 2 (532C2)
I've been quietly planning this hunt since the seed numbers came out. Now it's a reality!
sweet...
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:04 AM   #371
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by nwsteelheader View Post
It worked, I drew Wenaha Bow Elk with 1 point .
3898 away from the seed number with 10 tags available and 2700ish applicants.
Congrats! Sweet pull!!
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:05 AM   #372
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by SImudBogger View Post
I was only 5k over the buck deer seed.... for a tag that only takes 1 point.
Shoulda put in for late white river instead! LOL. Oh well, get to hunt 2 years in a row and hopefully I’ll get a chance at another tasty whitetail.

I know someone who drew a premium buck tag, at 200k above the seed!
That's awesome for them, my wife was only 70K over the premium buck and didn't get one. My son did draw his rifle bull tag with minimum points which according to the seed he should have. My dad also drew a buck tag with 1 point which the seed/stats said he would as well.
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:07 AM   #373
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by jaredhatfield06 View Post
I’m building points for this hunt in hopes to draw in the 25% pool. Congratulations, and I hope to hear how it goes!
Thanks. When you get it feel free to PM me. I hunted it with my buddy last year. He drew out of the 25% pool.
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:13 AM   #374
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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That's awesome for them, my wife was only 70K over the premium buck and didn't get one. My son did draw his rifle bull tag with minimum points which according to the seed he should have. My dad also drew a buck tag with 1 point which the seed/stats said he would as well.
That’s great for your dad and son!

I knew we’d draw buck based on our low seed number, and elk on preference points. 600 series I was on the bubble according to the math, and ended up on the wrong side of it. Everything else I knew wasn’t in play
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:27 AM   #375
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Pulled 246 Elk Murders Creek

Not sure how? Put in as a party of 3. 0 points between all 3 of us.

Did not get any other draws.
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Old 06-20-2019, 09:12 AM   #376
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Congrats to you guys.
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Old 06-20-2019, 09:22 AM   #377
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

My kids drew some really good youth tags and a regular bull tag based on preference points and also decent seed numbers. A couple of the hunts have really low tags given out so I'll see how important the seed numbers were after they release the point summary reports. I have a feeling the seed numbers played a part for at least 2 of the hunts drawn.
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Old 06-20-2019, 11:13 AM   #378
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

The usefulness of math skills.
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Old 06-20-2019, 11:22 AM   #379
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

The closest I was to any seed was 300,000 away from premium elk. Of course, I put in for Weneha, so I knew the odds were low, and the results proved it. I wasn't close on any other series and only drew a second choice elk tag I expected to draw.

So, what have we learned from this? Math, despite our lamentations about it in middle and high school, can serve a useful purpose. Also, if you want to ruin the anticipation of the results a few weeks early, just look at your app and seed #'s because they'll pretty much confirm that you're still never going to draw a sheep or goat tag (if you're me), and that you're forever destined for OTC tags in the state of Oregon. ;-)
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Old 06-20-2019, 12:50 PM   #380
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by AnnualRye View Post
The closest I was to any seed was 300,000 away from premium elk. Of course, I put in for Weneha, so I knew the odds were low, and the results proved it. I wasn't close on any other series and only drew a second choice elk tag I expected to draw.

So, what have we learned from this? Math, despite our lamentations about it in middle and high school, can serve a useful purpose. Also, if you want to ruin the anticipation of the results a few weeks early, just look at your app and seed #'s because they'll pretty much confirm that you're still never going to draw a sheep or goat tag (if you're me), and that you're forever destined for OTC tags in the state of Oregon. ;-)
I will add, quite a few learned how the process works and maybe they'll pass the info to others so the yearly "draw is fixed" nonsense can come to an end.
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Old 06-20-2019, 01:13 PM   #381
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. . . you're forever destined for OTC tags in the state of Oregon. ;-)
And done and locked out of the Eastside by Sep. 25 this year?

I sure don't miss that.
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Old 06-20-2019, 01:13 PM   #382
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I will add, quite a few learned how the process works and maybe they'll pass the info to others so the yearly "draw is fixed" nonsense can come to an end.
Good point. If more people show up in Salem to help pull the numbers out of the box that would be good too. It gives you some ownership in the seed numbers.
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Old 06-20-2019, 01:30 PM   #383
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If more people show up in Salem to help pull the numbers out of the box that would be good too.
That won't upset a certain demographic.
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Old 06-20-2019, 01:55 PM   #384
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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My wife is 19,719 above the seed number for hart mtn antelope. Gives hope for the 25% pool.

And I was correct. She drew from the 25% pool with only 11 points. Did not get her Zumwalt cow tag though, that’s been an elk in the freezer the last 4 years.
I drew chesnimus archery elk , chesnimus rifle buck and 615 Willy tag.
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Old 06-20-2019, 02:06 PM   #385
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And done and locked out of the Eastside by Sep. 25 this year?

I sure don't miss that.
I used to be a proponent of preference point system, and Oregon's system in general. However, the older I've gotten (not necessarily wiser) the more I'm beginning to realize preference point systems may have been a good idea at one point in time, but not anymore. Not the way we manage units, game numbers, tag numbers, predators, etc.

I don't think a lot of states ever had the foresight to see how it wasn't a sustainable system in the long run. Or, if they did, they just disregarded it and thought "we'll cross that bridge when we get there." Many elk and deer hunts you will never have a feasible chance of drawing. Yeah, I know, "25% pool, blah, blah blah...", (notice I wrote "feasible"), but seriously, tags that were once 4 or 5 years to draw a decade or two ago are now OIL. Even antelope tags, and bow antelope tags especially. WBB antelope bow was a 4 or 5 point hunt not long ago. Now, by the time I realistically draw it, it'll be 11 or 12 years. To me, that's unfathomable. If hunter numbers and recruitment are truly declining as has been reported, you could sure fool me by the amount of people that are applying for tags and the number of points it now takes to draw some of these tags.

I won't even get started on sheep and goat, but the one thing I can respect about that system is that it's a true lottery, which is what I believe the entire state should be- true continuity with the big game draw across all hunt series.

Idaho (and New Mexico) got it and have it right in my opinion. They had the foresight to see that PP and bonus point systems mathematically would not a sustainable option in the long run because point creep is an actual concern/thing that would negatively impact draw odds, and in particular dissuade out-of-state hunters. It encourages in-state AND out-of-state hunt recruitment because you have an equal playing field. AND, you have a legit chance at drawing a sheep or goat (and moose) tag, you just have to choose those species over elk/deer/antelope. If I wanted to hunt sheep, goat or moose badly enough then I would happily make that decision. I can hunt deer/elk/antelope in MT, WY, NV, or NM and have just as good of an experience.

I didn't mean to rant on this thread, but it got me thinking about how, if ever, we could eliminate the PP system in Oregon because point creep is going to continue to worsen. I haven't run the numbers/statistics on this idea so don't chastise me too hard, but perhaps we could just end the system one year? Hunters could retain the points they accrued until they draw whichever tag they've been putting in for. Once you use your points or draw your desired tag, you go back to zero. The system goes to true lottery across the board, and if you want to keep applying for Wenaha for example, those with 20 points would draw, the next year 18/19, the next year 15/16 or however many it would take to draw a respective unit until all points are eventually purged. That would appease those who would cry foul about the years (and years, and years...) they spent applying by allowing them to use their points if they so choose to keep applying for a particular tag. It would in theory gradually reduce the point threshold until all points were expended through successful draws.

I'm sure those of you smarter than I can point out MY oversights on this proposal and how it doesn't pencil out. Perhaps it's already been suggested? I don't know, I don't have the desire to search old threads on Ifish and see. Just a few thoughts and sour grapes by a whiner who only drew the Diddly Damn Squat unit, but I welcome conversation and insight if any of you have some.
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Old 06-20-2019, 02:41 PM   #386
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by WapitiBob View Post
I will add, quite a few learned how the process works and maybe they'll pass the info to others so the yearly "draw is fixed" nonsense can come to an end.
Is there the theory out there that first time applicants and kids draw more sheep tags than seasoned hunters?
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Old 06-20-2019, 03:04 PM   #387
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I used to be a proponent of preference point system, and Oregon's system in general. However, the older I've gotten (not necessarily wiser) the more I'm beginning to realize preference point systems may have been a good idea at one point in time, but not anymore. Not the way we manage units, game numbers, tag numbers, predators, etc.

I don't think a lot of states ever had the foresight to see how it wasn't a sustainable system in the long run. Or, if they did, they just disregarded it and thought "we'll cross that bridge when we get there." Many elk and deer hunts you will never have a feasible chance of drawing. Yeah, I know, "25% pool, blah, blah blah...", (notice I wrote "feasible"), but seriously, tags that were once 4 or 5 years to draw a decade or two ago are now OIL. Even antelope tags, and bow antelope tags especially. WBB antelope bow was a 4 or 5 point hunt not long ago. Now, by the time I realistically draw it, it'll be 11 or 12 years. To me, that's unfathomable. If hunter numbers and recruitment are truly declining as has been reported, you could sure fool me by the amount of people that are applying for tags and the number of points it now takes to draw some of these tags.

I won't even get started on sheep and goat, but the one thing I can respect about that system is that it's a true lottery, which is what I believe the entire state should be- true continuity with the big game draw across all hunt series.

Idaho (and New Mexico) got it and have it right in my opinion. They had the foresight to see that PP and bonus point systems mathematically would not a sustainable option in the long run because point creep is an actual concern/thing that would negatively impact draw odds, and in particular dissuade out-of-state hunters. It encourages in-state AND out-of-state hunt recruitment because you have an equal playing field. AND, you have a legit chance at drawing a sheep or goat (and moose) tag, you just have to choose those species over elk/deer/antelope. If I wanted to hunt sheep, goat or moose badly enough then I would happily make that decision. I can hunt deer/elk/antelope in MT, WY, NV, or NM and have just as good of an experience.

I didn't mean to rant on this thread, but it got me thinking about how, if ever, we could eliminate the PP system in Oregon because point creep is going to continue to worsen. I haven't run the numbers/statistics on this idea so don't chastise me too hard, but perhaps we could just end the system one year? Hunters could retain the points they accrued until they draw whichever tag they've been putting in for. Once you use your points or draw your desired tag, you go back to zero. The system goes to true lottery across the board, and if you want to keep applying for Wenaha for example, those with 20 points would draw, the next year 18/19, the next year 15/16 or however many it would take to draw a respective unit until all points are eventually purged. That would appease those who would cry foul about the years (and years, and years...) they spent applying by allowing them to use their points if they so choose to keep applying for a particular tag. It would in theory gradually reduce the point threshold until all points were expended through successful draws.

I'm sure those of you smarter than I can point out MY oversights on this proposal and how it doesn't pencil out. Perhaps it's already been suggested? I don't know, I don't have the desire to search old threads on Ifish and see. Just a few thoughts and sour grapes by a whiner who only drew the Diddly Damn Squat unit, but I welcome conversation and insight if any of you have some.
...and not long after posting this everyone's points were reset or negative. Who says ODFW doesn't listen to their constituents!?
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Old 06-20-2019, 03:51 PM   #388
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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...and not long after posting this everyone's points were reset or negative. Who says ODFW doesn't listen to their constituents!?
I noticed that right after I read your post and thought the same thing. Great timing. Funny Stuff.
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Old 06-20-2019, 06:43 PM   #389
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by AnnualRye View Post
I used to be a proponent of preference point system, and Oregon's system in general. However, the older I've gotten (not necessarily wiser) the more I'm beginning to realize preference point systems may have been a good idea at one point in time, but not anymore. Not the way we manage units, game numbers, tag numbers, predators, etc.

I don't think a lot of states ever had the foresight to see how it wasn't a sustainable system in the long run. Or, if they did, they just disregarded it and thought "we'll cross that bridge when we get there." Many elk and deer hunts you will never have a feasible chance of drawing. Yeah, I know, "25% pool, blah, blah blah...", (notice I wrote "feasible"), but seriously, tags that were once 4 or 5 years to draw a decade or two ago are now OIL. Even antelope tags, and bow antelope tags especially. WBB antelope bow was a 4 or 5 point hunt not long ago. Now, by the time I realistically draw it, it'll be 11 or 12 years. To me, that's unfathomable. If hunter numbers and recruitment are truly declining as has been reported, you could sure fool me by the amount of people that are applying for tags and the number of points it now takes to draw some of these tags.

I won't even get started on sheep and goat, but the one thing I can respect about that system is that it's a true lottery, which is what I believe the entire state should be- true continuity with the big game draw across all hunt series.

Idaho (and New Mexico) got it and have it right in my opinion. They had the foresight to see that PP and bonus point systems mathematically would not a sustainable option in the long run because point creep is an actual concern/thing that would negatively impact draw odds, and in particular dissuade out-of-state hunters. It encourages in-state AND out-of-state hunt recruitment because you have an equal playing field. AND, you have a legit chance at drawing a sheep or goat (and moose) tag, you just have to choose those species over elk/deer/antelope. If I wanted to hunt sheep, goat or moose badly enough then I would happily make that decision. I can hunt deer/elk/antelope in MT, WY, NV, or NM and have just as good of an experience.

I didn't mean to rant on this thread, but it got me thinking about how, if ever, we could eliminate the PP system in Oregon because point creep is going to continue to worsen. I haven't run the numbers/statistics on this idea so don't chastise me too hard, but perhaps we could just end the system one year? Hunters could retain the points they accrued until they draw whichever tag they've been putting in for. Once you use your points or draw your desired tag, you go back to zero. The system goes to true lottery across the board, and if you want to keep applying for Wenaha for example, those with 20 points would draw, the next year 18/19, the next year 15/16 or however many it would take to draw a respective unit until all points are eventually purged. That would appease those who would cry foul about the years (and years, and years...) they spent applying by allowing them to use their points if they so choose to keep applying for a particular tag. It would in theory gradually reduce the point threshold until all points were expended through successful draws.

I'm sure those of you smarter than I can point out MY oversights on this proposal and how it doesn't pencil out. Perhaps it's already been suggested? I don't know, I don't have the desire to search old threads on Ifish and see. Just a few thoughts and sour grapes by a whiner who only drew the Diddly Damn Squat unit, but I welcome conversation and insight if any of you have some.
I would have to reread your post 10 times to make a logical comment. But your point that Mont., Wyo., etc. is better opportunity is right on. There draw system seems to be more advanced. And they have more animals per capita.
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Old 06-20-2019, 07:03 PM   #390
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Eliminating the 25% pool would get you a tag 25% faster....

I believe the random 25% pool is unique to Oregon? If I’m wrong someone please correct that.

At the end of the day, the reason other states are “better” is because they have more animals to hunt.
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:02 PM   #391
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by SImudBogger View Post
Eliminating the 25% pool would get you a tag 25% faster....

I believe the random 25% pool is unique to Oregon? If I’m wrong someone please correct that.

At the end of the day, the reason other states are “better” is because they have more animals to hunt.
Wyoming has a random pool similar to Oregon’s 25% pool for NR.
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:11 PM   #392
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

How about this.... on June 2nd ODFW holds the public seed number drawing at say 6 or 7PM. Those who cannot attend can watch it via a live feed. We could even have a viewing party at your favorite gathering place. We all have our random application numbers in hand. As each number is drawn to form the 7 digit seed number for each hunt series the excitement (or disappointment) would build. Could be a lot of cheering or booing.....

Kind of like watching the PowerBall numbers being drawn with a ticket in your hand.
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Old 06-20-2019, 08:47 PM   #393
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Is there the theory out there that first time applicants and kids draw more sheep tags than seasoned hunters?
I have a friend that says we never landed on the Moon; showed me video proof on YouTube.....
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Old 06-20-2019, 09:07 PM   #394
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I like point systems.
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Old 06-20-2019, 09:12 PM   #395
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I would have to reread your post 10 times to make a logical comment. But your point that Mont., Wyo., etc. is better opportunity is right on. There draw system seems to be more advanced. And they have more animals per capita.
EXACTLY: We must face the fact that Montana and Wyoming are better states to hunt because there are less people and better habitat for animals than OR. We're not a great goat, antelope or sheep state. The system we have in place is limited on how much opportunity and quality we have for everyone.

The population of Oregon is 4x of Montana and the population of Portland exceeds that of the entire state of Wyoming. Imagine how awesome your chances of drawing would be if there were 3 million less Oregonians.

Last edited by 444Marlin; 06-20-2019 at 09:19 PM. Reason: stats
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Old 06-21-2019, 07:57 AM   #396
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by simudbogger View Post
eliminating the 25% pool would get you a tag 25% faster....

I believe the random 25% pool is unique to oregon? If i’m wrong someone please correct that.

At the end of the day, the reason other states are “better” is because they have more animals to hunt.
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Old 06-21-2019, 09:31 AM   #397
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I compared seed numbers to application numbers for myself, my dad and my fiance this year. It looked like all three of us had virtually no chance at drawing, our app numbers were below the seed numbers for almost all hunts.

Then my dad and fiance drew elk tags. So my dad said to me, "I told you not to trust polls!" Haha
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Old 06-21-2019, 09:58 AM   #398
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I compared seed numbers to application numbers for myself, my dad and my fiance this year. It looked like all three of us had virtually no chance at drawing, our app numbers were below the seed numbers for almost all hunts.

Then my dad and fiance drew elk tags. So my dad said to me, "I told you not to trust polls!" Haha

Is there any chance they drew from the 75% pool?
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:08 AM   #399
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Is there any chance they drew from the 75% pool?
Not based on last years app stats. Really makes it insane odds for all 4 of them to draw the same year. This was for 3 different hunts too.
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:09 AM   #400
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by winterkill View Post
...virtually no chance at drawing
Otherwise known as "having a chance"
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:17 AM   #401
winterkill
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Otherwise known as "having a chance"
Ahhh, the classic Dumb & Dumber quote... "So you're saying there is a chance."

Supposing they each had 1/20 chance in the 25% pool (which is most likely similar odds to what was actually in the 25% pool), then the probability for them all to independently draw was:

(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20) = 1/160,000 = 0.000625% chance that they would all draw.

Last edited by winterkill; 06-21-2019 at 10:21 AM. Reason: math is hard
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:39 AM   #402
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by winterkill View Post
Ahhh, the classic Dumb & Dumber quote... "So you're saying there is a chance."

Supposing they each had 1/20 chance in the 25% pool (which is most likely similar odds to what was actually in the 25% pool), then the probability for them all to independently draw was:

(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20) = 1/160,000 = 0.000625% chance that they would all draw.
Glass half full; they did draw

Better odds than Powerball
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:57 AM   #403
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by winterkill View Post
Ahhh, the classic Dumb & Dumber quote... "So you're saying there is a chance."

Supposing they each had 1/20 chance in the 25% pool (which is most likely similar odds to what was actually in the 25% pool), then the probability for them all to independently draw was:

(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20) = 1/160,000 = 0.000625% chance that they would all draw.
Probably some mistakes. They should go to ODFW and tell them they want their tags given to others...
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Old 06-24-2019, 12:07 PM   #404
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Anyone have access to the 2018, not 2019 Seed Draw Numbers?
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Old 06-24-2019, 12:29 PM   #405
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Anyone have access to the 2018, not 2019 Seed Draw Numbers?

See post 329 of this thread.


https://www.ifish.net/board/showpost...&postcount=329
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Old 06-24-2019, 01:07 PM   #406
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Glass half full; they did draw

Better odds than Powerball

Loper's message as usual - Don't question ODFW.
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Old 06-24-2019, 01:37 PM   #407
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Anyone have access to the 2018, not 2019 Seed Draw Numbers?
See Post #23
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Old 06-24-2019, 05:31 PM   #408
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by winterkill View Post
I compared seed numbers to application numbers for myself, my dad and my fiance this year. It looked like all three of us had virtually no chance at drawing, our app numbers were below the seed numbers for almost all hunts.

Then my dad and fiance drew elk tags. So my dad said to me, "I told you not to trust polls!" Haha
This is where it seems that there is an extra randomization layer due to which tags people apply for. Seems like the rest of the people who applied for those tags had numbers even further away from the draw seed number.

I did see an interesting suggestion on here before about flipping a coin each year to see if they count up or down from the seed number. That could be fun to add to the chaos. Maybe wait to do it until June 18th or 19th to really get people sweating?
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Old 06-24-2019, 07:01 PM   #409
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Loper's message as usual - Don't question ODFW.

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Old 06-24-2019, 07:17 PM   #410
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Still enjoying Portland I see



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Old 06-24-2019, 07:48 PM   #411
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I’m not sure any whitetail taken in the Palouse gets to be gluten-free

How can one call a gluten-free taco salad if you have to eat the salad off the plate without a taco?

You’ve blown my mind on Monday night here 🤯 and forced me to Google

Celiac disease affects 200,000 people a year in the US; that’s less than 1/10th of 1 percent of the US population

If it weren’t for wheat the Port of Lewiston need not exist 🤠


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Old 06-25-2019, 09:40 AM   #412
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I used to be a proponent of preference point system, and Oregon's system in general. However, the older I've gotten (not necessarily wiser) the more I'm beginning to realize preference point systems may have been a good idea at one point in time, but not anymore. Not the way we manage units, game numbers, tag numbers, predators, etc.

I don't think a lot of states ever had the foresight to see how it wasn't a sustainable system in the long run. Or, if they did, they just disregarded it and thought "we'll cross that bridge when we get there." Many elk and deer hunts you will never have a feasible chance of drawing. Yeah, I know, "25% pool, blah, blah blah...", (notice I wrote "feasible"), but seriously, tags that were once 4 or 5 years to draw a decade or two ago are now OIL. Even antelope tags, and bow antelope tags especially. WBB antelope bow was a 4 or 5 point hunt not long ago. Now, by the time I realistically draw it, it'll be 11 or 12 years. To me, that's unfathomable. If hunter numbers and recruitment are truly declining as has been reported, you could sure fool me by the amount of people that are applying for tags and the number of points it now takes to draw some of these tags.

I won't even get started on sheep and goat, but the one thing I can respect about that system is that it's a true lottery, which is what I believe the entire state should be- true continuity with the big game draw across all hunt series.

Idaho (and New Mexico) got it and have it right in my opinion. They had the foresight to see that PP and bonus point systems mathematically would not a sustainable option in the long run because point creep is an actual concern/thing that would negatively impact draw odds, and in particular dissuade out-of-state hunters. It encourages in-state AND out-of-state hunt recruitment because you have an equal playing field. AND, you have a legit chance at drawing a sheep or goat (and moose) tag, you just have to choose those species over elk/deer/antelope. If I wanted to hunt sheep, goat or moose badly enough then I would happily make that decision. I can hunt deer/elk/antelope in MT, WY, NV, or NM and have just as good of an experience.

I didn't mean to rant on this thread, but it got me thinking about how, if ever, we could eliminate the PP system in Oregon because point creep is going to continue to worsen. I haven't run the numbers/statistics on this idea so don't chastise me too hard, but perhaps we could just end the system one year? Hunters could retain the points they accrued until they draw whichever tag they've been putting in for. Once you use your points or draw your desired tag, you go back to zero. The system goes to true lottery across the board, and if you want to keep applying for Wenaha for example, those with 20 points would draw, the next year 18/19, the next year 15/16 or however many it would take to draw a respective unit until all points are eventually purged. That would appease those who would cry foul about the years (and years, and years...) they spent applying by allowing them to use their points if they so choose to keep applying for a particular tag. It would in theory gradually reduce the point threshold until all points were expended through successful draws.

I'm sure those of you smarter than I can point out MY oversights on this proposal and how it doesn't pencil out. Perhaps it's already been suggested? I don't know, I don't have the desire to search old threads on Ifish and see. Just a few thoughts and sour grapes by a whiner who only drew the Diddly Damn Squat unit, but I welcome conversation and insight if any of you have some.
I prefer Nevada's system, Although New Mexico has been good to me this year.

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Originally Posted by SImudBogger View Post
Eliminating the 25% pool would get you a tag 25% faster....

I believe the random 25% pool is unique to Oregon? If I’m wrong someone please correct that.

At the end of the day, the reason other states are “better” is because they have more animals to hunt.
Arizona does it with the bonus pass that splits the NR allocation 50/50. Oregon needs to do this, put the nr cap at 10% and split it 50/50.
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Old 06-25-2019, 09:48 AM   #413
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Old 06-25-2019, 10:33 AM   #414
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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. . .it got me thinking about how, if ever, we could eliminate the PP system in Oregon. . .
ODFW would need to make an announcement 5 years before ending the points system: Cash out before you lose out.

Points systems are such a failure that at this point it is probably not a good investment to begin buying points even in Wyoming.

I'm happy to apply with 1-5% odds each year for top quality hunts, same odds as everyone else.
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