2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

[canes_venatici]

Originally Posted by OSUsmokey

...I'm pretty sure any app numbers that are lower than the seed numbers are almost guarantee no draw.

This depends on the point level you are at. If there are enough tags in the 75% pool to give every applicant a tag, it won't matter.


If there are nearly enough tags in the 75% pool, then it depends on how many applications are between your number and the seed.



Seed numbers are interesting data points, but they are not definitive in determining draw results.

[QuazyQuinton]

Originally Posted by fishinpox

Pretty sure I just ruined the anticipation of results being released

Yep, family of four, and we have nothing within 10% of a seed number for sheep, goat, and premium hunts. Conspiracy, I say!!!

Fortunately, our apps for the preference point drawings are planned to draw by points, rather than hoping for random seeds. I think we'll be OK there.

QQ

[WapitiBob]

10,000,000 / applicants * number of tags = random number spread to allocate those tags.

This is a long way from precise results.
Every app that applies for a given hunt could have random numbers under the seed number. I do it for fun and depending on my numbers, can see if I drew. In that instance my number is right above the seed number.
I have basically three options; I'm going to draw, I have no idea, and there is no way I can draw.

[loper]

Originally Posted by QuazyQuinton

Yep, family of four, and we have nothing within 10% of a seed number for sheep, goat, and premium hunts. Conspiracy, I say!!!

[morelk]

I think this adds an extra layer of anticipation and a bit of premature disappointment.

My daughters youth deer hunt looks hopeful with 12 points & a top 7% seed.
My son is top 3% in sheep, but that probably isn't good enough.
I've got a top 3.5% premium elk number, but probably not good enough.
All 6 of my immediate family has horrible #s looking for a random willy tag

[blackdog]

Originally Posted by WapitiBob

Random numbers are in your account. Good luck

Where are these actually supposed to be found in our accounts? I couldn't find it and when I just called ODFW Licensing for help, the gal who answered again told me she didn't think they were released. Said she was going to check with her supervisor when she got back from lunch. But any help would be appreciated.

[SImudBogger]

Where the heck do we find these numbers? I can see my application number but can’t find the seed numbers. Anyone got a link?

[Monkey Shrimp]

Originally Posted by SImudBogger

Where the heck do we find these numbers? I can see my application number but can’t find the seed numbers. Anyone got a link?

See post #67 in this thread for the seed numbers.

[Extrapale]

I got a decent deer number.

My dad got a great sheep number. We shall see. At 78 years old he needs to draw soon if he is going to be able to hunt.

Sent from my LM-G820 using Tapatalk

[SImudBogger]

It’s only a good indicator of if you drew if your app number is very close the seed number and not below it. 7 digits is 10 million numbers, and there’s not 10 million applications.
Our app number is only like 150 digits above the seed for buck deer, so that’s a slam dunk. After that it’s a total crapshoot depending on points, total applicants, party sizes etc.

[WapitiBob]

congrats

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by blackdog

Where are these actually supposed to be found in our accounts? I couldn't find it and when I just called ODFW Licensing for help, the gal who answered again told me she didn't think they were released. Said she was going to check with her supervisor when she got back from lunch. But any help would be appreciated.

it's your application # listed in the controlled hunt area once you log in to your account.

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by SImudBogger

It’s only a good indicator of if you drew if your app number is very close the seed number and not below it. 7 digits is 10 million numbers, and there’s not 10 million applications.
Our app number is only like 150 digits above the seed for buck deer, so that’s a slam dunk. After that it’s a total crapshoot depending on points, total applicants, party sizes etc.

Awesome...

[haro450]

Any guess on how close a person needs to be for a big horn tag?

[Diep]

It does kill the suspense a bit but I like being able to see it.


Unfortunately the only one I am even in the neighborhood with was already a high percentage chance for buck deer. I wish I had that draw for any of the others with very low percentages on the 25% pool. I'd even be hopeful for bighorn if it was in that series...


At least I can start planning for the hunt I was already planning on!


~Diep

[SImudBogger]

Originally Posted by Stonefly1

Awesome...

Actually..... 5,150 off lol. My maff skils r bahd. But still very close. It’s a 90% draw anyway, not much for suspense

[haro450]

Originally Posted by haro450

Any guess on how close a person needs to be for a big horn tag?

9602826 is my brother inlaws number. For big horn first choice is a 2 tag unit with less than 200 applicants last year.

[loper]

Originally Posted by SImudBogger

It’s only a good indicator of if you drew if your app number is very close the seed number and not below it. 7 digits is 10 million numbers, and there’s not 10 million applications.
Our app number is only like 150 digits above the seed for buck deer, so that’s a slam dunk. After that it’s a total crapshoot depending on points, total applicants, party sizes etc.

The last sentence is true for all but the Premium hunts and the hunts for which no preference points can be obtained.

I only bring that up because I was bored and looked mine up; Premium Elk is actually potentially in play for me.
I assisted in the retrieval of 4 elk last year; I wonder if I can get at least the two retirees to help me if that were to come to pass.

[SImudBogger]

Originally Posted by haro450

Any guess on how close a person needs to be for a big horn tag?

“Very” is the only word that comes to mind

[Cadiaz]

So if I am understanding this correctly you're out of contention if your number is below the seed number?

[Diep]

Take a hypothetical sheep hunt with 400 applicants and 1 tag, that's 0.25% chance of drawing. On AVERAGE you would have to be within 0.0025 of 10,000,000 to draw. So within the first 25,000 away from the number. Of course with only 400 applicants within the set of 10,000,000 possible application numbers the draw could easily happen well above or below that.


Anyway I think I'm thinking correctly about it.


Another way to look at it is take the difference between your number and the seed and divide by 100,000. That will give you a percent and the lower the better. You would want to compare that percentage result to the prediction on Ron's site. This still can't tell you if you will draw but you want your number to be smaller than that. The more smaller the more better. If you are somewhat close to that number in either direction you can keep holding your breath for the results.


Remember your number has to be higher than the seed number, so if you are close but below you are out of luck.


~Diep

[Diep]

Originally Posted by haro450

9602826 is my brother inlaws number. For big horn first choice is a 2 tag unit with less than 200 applicants last year.

Time to hold your breath!

[Cadiaz]

Aww Diep you burst my bubble! So close on two hunts but I am below the seed numbers!

[Mossyhorn]

I imagine if a seed number was very high, say starting with a 9, then there’s a chance if you had a very low seed number. Say starting with a 0 or 1?

[loper]

Originally Posted by Mossyhorn

I imagine if a seed number was very high, say starting with a 9, then there’s a chance if you had a very low seed number. Say starting with a 0 or 1?

It will be interesting to see if that happens with bighorn sheep this year.

The bighorn sheep seed # this year is 9523940

Last year there were a total of 22,806 applications, both resident and nonresident; if you break up 10 million numbers into 20 different 500,000 size buckets and the generator generates application numbers evenly across the application id size (remember that statistically valid test? ), then 1140 applications would have been in the pool of 9500000 - 9999999.

And yes, 1140 is greater than the number of sheep tags given out.

The question is: does it satisfy the statistical validity currently in place that the application ids be generated out across the potential application id space for the species as a whole, but the application ids for each particular hunt for that species do not have to be?

If that were possible, then it is possible the 1140 applications in the last bucket could be spread out just across a few hunts and the algorithm will go around the corner to start at application 0000000

[dwbri22]

Correct me if I am wrong but the the number assigned is supposed to be a 10 digit number. I don't think the application number is the ten digit randomly assigned number as it is only seven digits.

[Extrapale]

Yes, its just a starting point. The order wraps around to 0 after 9,999,999

Sent from my LM-G820 using Tapatalk

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by Cadiaz

So if I am understanding this correctly you're out of contention if your number is below the seed number?

One digit below, yes, if there are more applicants than tags and you are not a top point holder.

[loper]

Originally Posted by dwbri22

Correct me if I am wrong but the the number assigned is supposed to be a 10 digit number. I don't think the application number is the ten digit randomly assigned number as it is only seven digits.

That changed this year.

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by dwbri22

Correct me if I am wrong but the the number assigned is supposed to be a 10 digit number. I don't think the application number is the ten digit randomly assigned number as it is only seven digits.

seven digits this year. in the past it has been 10.

[WapitiBob]

Originally Posted by haro450

9602826 is my brother inlaws number. For big horn first choice is a 2 tag unit with less than 200 applicants last year.

Assuming even distribution, he should be in a real good spot.

[WapitiBob]

Verified again today with the person doing the computer work on the new raffle and draw system; Oregon assigns the random number when an application is submitted. Different than other states that sort the database by ID and then step thru assigning numbers.

[blackdog]

Originally Posted by Stonefly1

it's your application # listed in the controlled hunt area once you log in to your account.

Thanks. It wasn't showing on my Chrome browser at work. Had to log in on my phone for the numbers to show up. The gal at ODFW confirmed she wasn't seeing it when she logged into my account as well.

[canes_venatici]

Another point to consider, your randomly generated number is used in the 75% pool. According to the 2019 regulations, page 12, "...The remaining 25% are awarded randomly amongst all first choice applicants..." So, just because your random number is just below the publicly drawn seed number, that doesn't mean you won't draw. You have the same odds as everyone else that you will draw in the 25% pool.

[WapitiBob]

ODFW uses the same random number for both the 75% PP side and the 25% random side. Difference being you're sorted by points, then random number in the PP side. Random side we're sorted only by the random number.

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by canes_venatici

Another point to consider, your randomly generated number is used in the 75% pool. According to the 2019 regulations, page 12, "...The remaining 25% are awarded randomly amongst all first choice applicants..." So, just because your random number is just below the publicly drawn seed number, that doesn't mean you won't draw. You have the same odds as everyone else that you will draw in the 25% pool.

Each application purchased is assigned a random 7-digit number.

Members of the public are invited to ODFW headquarters to randomly choose a 7-digit draw seed number for each hunt series. (Call 503-947-6108 to participate in the drawing.)

Applicants for each hunt are grouped by preference points and first choice hunt selected.

Tags are awarded in each preference point group beginning with the applicant whose 7-digit number matches, or is closest to and above, the seed number.

The selection continues with the applicant having the next higher 7-digit number, until 75% of the tags have been awarded or until all first-choice applicants have received tags.

All remaining first-choice applicants are rearranged solely by 7-digit random number and the remaining 25% of tags are awarded randomly among all first-choice applicants for the hunt.

[canes_venatici]

From Page 12 of the 2019 Oregon Big Game Hunting Regulations...



"For deer, elk, pronghorn and spring bear hunts (Premium Hunts excluded), most tags (75%) are awarded to those first choice applicants with the most preference points. The remaining 25% are awarded randomly amongst all first choice applicants, so everyone that applies always has a chance to draw their first choice hunt. If tags remain after all first choice applicants have been successful, then remaining tags are distributed randomly amongst all second choice applicants, and so on through fifth choice applicants if tags remain. Preference points are not considered in selection of application choices two through five."


http://www.eregulations.com/wp-conte...19ORHD_LR4.pdf

[canes_venatici]

Oregon Administrative Regulations

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/...VrsnRsn=253411


See 635-060-0023(1)(b)


This means that regardless of your random number and the publicly drawn seed numbers, odds in the 25% pool are the same for everyone.

[Flatfish]

Not looking good for me. Which is strange, because 2nd choice elk is 100%.

Can't figure out wife's stuff. Since they changed system, I can't figure out how to access her info (Actually I can. Unless she drew a sheep tag, or a pronghorn tag with 1 point.....). Will wait a couple weeks to find out what we already knew.

[abbeyspal]

Originally Posted by canes_venatici

Oregon Administrative Regulations

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/...VrsnRsn=253411


See 635-060-0023(1)(b)


This means that regardless of your random number and the publicly drawn seed numbers, odds in the 25% pool are the same for everyone.

Your odds are still the same? You get a random number in relation to a random number. How do you think they draw the 25%?

[Coastbull]

Originally Posted by canes_venatici

Oregon Administrative Regulations

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/...VrsnRsn=253411


See 635-060-0023(1)(b)


This means that regardless of your random number and the publicly drawn seed numbers, odds in the 25% pool are the same for everyone.

So you're saying that the random number we are assigned in our My ODFW account doesn't mean anything in the 25% pool?

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by canes_venatici

Oregon Administrative Regulations

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/...VrsnRsn=253411


See 635-060-0023(1)(b)


This means that regardless of your random number and the publicly drawn seed numbers, odds in the 25% pool are the same for everyone.

There is no mention of the random seed numbers or random application numbers in the 75% pool either.

[DB Crouper]

Originally Posted by haro450

9602826 is my brother inlaws number. For big horn first choice is a 2 tag unit with less than 200 applicants last year.

200 applicants for 9,999,999 random numbers mean that the statistical number of tags drawn for that hunt is one for every 50,000 random numbers. Your BIL is 78,986 from the target number, so with 2 tags drawn, statistically he could very well be a winner.

[gettin' fishy]

This year is not looking good for first choice hunts. I'm either right below the seed or so far away it won't matter. Hopefully I'll get lucky and get one of my second choice hunts. If not general season here I come. The only thing for sure is my point saver for antelope.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

[ComboTag]

Can somebody kindly post a pic of the draw seed numbers for everything? I cant find them anywhere.

[canes_venatici]

Originally Posted by Stonefly1

There is no mention of the random seed numbers or random application numbers in the 75% pool either.

OARs typically do not define specific methodologies. Rather, they define requirements. In this case, the 25% pool must be drawn with equal chances for all.

Originally Posted by Coastbull

So you're saying that the random number we are assigned in our My ODFW account doesn't mean anything in the 25% pool?

I don't know for sure how random numbers and publicly drawn seed numbers are used in the 25% pool draw. That is a question for ODFW staffers.

Originally Posted by abbeyspal

Your odds are still the same? You get a random number in relation to a random number. How do you think they draw the 25%?

Consider an example: Let's suppose 40 tags are available for hunt X. Let's also suppose there are 100 applicants. 60 apply at the 0 point level, 30 at the 1 point level, 7 at the 2 point level, and 3 at the 3 point level.


The 75% pool has 30 tags in it. While processing the 75% pool, all applicants at the 2 and 3 point level get tags and 20 applicants in the 1 point level get a tag. This leaves 60 applicants at the 0 point level and 10 applicants at the 1 point level.


Now comes the 25% pool draw. If you sort the applicants by random number and then begin with the publicly drawn seed, where will all the remaining applicants with 1 point be? Odds are those applicants will be grouped closer to the end of the line than evenly distributed amongst the remaining applicants. This means that those with 1 point who did not draw in the 75% pool will have lower odds of drawing in the 25% pool than those at the 0 point level. Such an occurrence violates the OAR. So, ODFW likely uses a different selection methodology for the 25% pool than it does for the 75% pool.


The point is this: Even though points are not used in the 25% draw, viewing point levels in the 25% draw provides an identifiable sub-group of applicants who do not have the same odds as the others if the 75% selection methodology is used.



I'm curious about the specific mechanics of the 25% pool, just as you are. Namely, how are the publicly drawn seed numbers used in the 25% pool? Also, how does ODFW ensure that odds are equal for all applicants in the 25% pool?

[canes_venatici]

Originally Posted by ComboTag

Can somebody kindly post a pic of the draw seed numbers for everything? I cant find them anywhere.

Post 67 of this thread.


https://www.ifish.net/board/showpost...5&postcount=67

[ComboTag]

Originally Posted by canes_venatici

Post 67 of this thread.


https://www.ifish.net/board/showpost...5&postcount=67

Thanks! and wow, I'm about 4,000,000 off every number haha

[abbeyspal]

I think the 25% pool is likely drawn in the same way. They jus disregard points and draw in sequence. I would guess draws that don't have points associated are still drawn in relation to proximity to the seed number.

[whitey375]

Well my son is about 25k north of an awesome deer tag, as well as even closer than that to Premium antelope.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[SImudBogger]

For all the 7th-12th grade ifishers out there, particularly the ones who hate math class.... this is what “when are we gonna have to use this?” looks like when you’re all grown up.

[fishinpox]

Originally Posted by SImudBogger

For all the 7th-12th grade ifishers out there, particularly the ones who hate math class.... this is what “when are we gonna have to use this?” looks like when you’re all grown up.

[Stonefly1]

Originally Posted by abbeyspal

I think the 25% pool is likely drawn in the same way. They jus disregard points and draw in sequence. I would guess draws that don't have points associated are still drawn in relation to proximity to the seed number.

This is correct!

In the 25% pool all applicants are rearranged solely by their 7-digit random number, regardless of the number of points they have. That is why everyone has an equal (although maybe slim) chance to draw in the 25% pool.

[QuazyQuinton]

Originally Posted by Stonefly1

This is correct!

In the 25% pool all applicants are rearranged solely by their 7-digit random number, regardless of the number of points they have. That is why everyone has an equal (although maybe slim) chance to draw in the 25% pool.

This is my understanding, as well.

What someone was suggesting earlier is that if you are at a point level where you have a chance of drawing on points, but you have an unfavorable application number and don't draw, you are probably hosed when they do the random side. Thus, does that satisfy the "everyone has an equal chance" statement about the random side of the draw. I'm guessing it's a statistical rabbit hole that exceeds my knowledge of statistics.

QQ

[abbeyspal]

Everyone has an equal chance when they buy a Powerball ticket but the dude with the matching numbers has a "more equal" chance.

[haro450]

Originally Posted by DB Crouper

200 applicants for 9,999,999 random numbers mean that the statistical number of tags drawn for that hunt is one for every 50,000 random numbers. Your BIL is 78,986 from the target number, so with 2 tags drawn, statistically he could very well be a winner.

That is what i thought i was just looking for some confirmation. Thanks

[MarlinMark]

"There's lies, damned lies and then there's statistics."

[morelk]

Originally Posted by QuazyQuinton

This is my understanding, as well.

What someone was suggesting earlier is that if you are at a point level where you have a chance of drawing on points, but you have an unfavorable application number and don't draw, you are probably hosed when they do the random side. Thus, does that satisfy the "everyone has an equal chance" statement about the random side of the draw. I'm guessing it's a statistical rabbit hole that exceeds my knowledge of statistics.

QQ

If you are correct which I think you are this is a salt in the wound realization. If you are on the bubble and whiff you also have no chance in the 25% draw. After 2 straight years of being 100% projected to draw a certain elk tag and missing this chaps my hide!! Both years point creep put me on the bubble and my 40-60% chance became zero after the 75% draw was done. 1st world problem!!

[DB Crouper]

Originally Posted by loper

Some certainly seem to think that life as we know it will end June 20.

I won't believe that until I hear it from AOC.

[QuazyQuinton]

Originally Posted by morelk

If you are correct which I think you are this is a salt in the wound realization. If you are on the bubble and whiff you also have no chance in the 25% draw. After 2 straight years of being 100% projected to draw a certain elk tag and missing this chaps my hide!! Both years point creep put me on the bubble and my 40-60% chance became zero after the 75% draw was done. 1st world problem!!

The counter to this would be that if you had a chance in the points draw, you've already had a better chance than the losers who only get the random draw. Small consolation, I know.

It does bring to mind the Biblical analogy of straining at a gnat and swallowing a camel.

QQ