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Old 07-22-2020, 09:44 AM   #301
leefromseattle
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Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It is completely nuts, up 512% in past 12 months, but that could be 600% or 800% soon enough....

I'm probably gonna short MSCI in the next week and buy back in after earnings. It consistently goes up long term, but also can drop $30 or so a share after gapping up. Check out that 5 year chart, 500% in 5 years not bad even if you jut buy and forget.

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Old 07-22-2020, 09:46 AM   #302
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Originally Posted by DogGone View Post
Anyone shorting TSLA into the close? Seems like irrational exuberance, but I've been at this long enough to know, you just never know.
If after the close when TSLA reports its earnings they show a profit, it will meet all the criteria required for being included in the S and P 500. If they get included in the S & P 500, all those index fund need to start buying the stock. That's an awful lot of new buyers of the stock regardless of if one thinks the fundamentals of TSLA's business justify its current price. So the questions of the day for short term traders is, will TSLA report a profit for the quarter or not, and how much expectations of a yes or no on that question is baked into the current stock price today?
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:48 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by Don G Baldi View Post
Straddle? Spread? Naked put?
Nothing that complicated. Don't know if I'll pull the trigger, just thinking about it.
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:52 AM   #304
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

Funny, just scanning CNBC and found an article on Tesla. It said shorted shares are about 14 million compared to last year when it was 41 million. Wonder how much money was lost in the process.
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Old 07-22-2020, 10:04 AM   #305
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41 million at $255/share is 10.5 billion

14 million shares at $1580/share is 22.12 billion
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Old 07-22-2020, 10:05 AM   #306
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

Too rich for my blood with TSLA, but all of the lithium mining stocks are doing great.

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Old 07-22-2020, 11:05 AM   #307
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Too rich for my blood with TSLA, but all of the lithium mining stocks are doing great.

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Couple years ago I had some lithium miner penny stock that did really well when it was bought out by a Chinese company. Short hold, decent profit. I think it was a Canadian company that owned rights to some ground in Nevada.
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:35 PM   #308
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

I know it’s not stock, but the surge in silver prices has been impressive. Glad I didn’t sell already. Now I may have to sit back and see how far it goes. Hopefully it goes back up to 2011 highs.
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:48 PM   #309
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Anyone shorting TSLA into the close? Seems like irrational exuberance, but I've been at this long enough to know, you just never know.
Glad I decided against it. The exuberance irrational or not looks like it will continue.
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Old 07-22-2020, 01:25 PM   #310
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

I'm long on TSLA. As of this afternoon I'm up 414%.

Question: without going deep into the weeds, how do folks identify new stocks to trade in? All of the things I have in my portfolio are things I know already (Costco, Amazon, Tesla, etc.).

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Old 07-22-2020, 01:43 PM   #311
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Barchart is good for screening options/stocks/etfs based on some criteria. Sometimes I'll scan options for low IV stuff (stuff nobody wants) and decide whether I think it'll recover. If you're looking for really short momentum trades Finviz will show you the top gainers and losers.

I think its best though to stick to what you know, I have the same watch list as 5 years ago and mostly stick to the same stuff.

Used to go down the FDA calendar and just buy a bit of anything looking half decent having results dates 2+ months in the future, usually they'd creep up until then.
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Old 07-22-2020, 04:01 PM   #312
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Glad I decided against it. The exuberance irrational or not looks like it will continue.
Short would have been the wrong direction. Betting against Musk has been a losing strategy.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:11 PM   #313
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

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Originally Posted by ampersat View Post
I'm long on TSLA. As of this afternoon I'm up 414%.

Question: without going deep into the weeds, how do folks identify new stocks to trade in? All of the things I have in my portfolio are things I know already (Costco, Amazon, Tesla, etc.).

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Some of it is just intuition..

Ie gold and precious metals are going to go up because of inflation.(mining stocks hl, btg gold etc)

Lithium stocks are going up because of the push for more ev options. (Pll, livent) ino, etc

Bios are pure gambling, but basic metrics work.

Opko - testing and analysis, ibio rapid covid testing, cydy covid treatments, vaxart - covid vaccines, ino, etc

Pacr builds trucks and posted a profit this Quarter.

Oil stock are very undervauled still. HLX had a huge quarter and is having a good day.

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Old 07-23-2020, 09:34 AM   #314
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogGone View Post
Anyone shorting TSLA into the close? Seems like irrational exuberance, but I've been at this long enough to know, you just never know.
Looks like it would have been a good bet today. shocked since it went crazy after hours last night
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:40 AM   #315
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Looks like it would have been a good bet today. shocked since it went crazy after hours last night
I see that, I would have done ok.
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Old 07-24-2020, 05:49 AM   #316
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I see that, I would have done ok.
wow.... coulda woulda shoulda....

I dont understand how to short but this could have been a good one
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Old 07-25-2020, 11:05 AM   #317
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Originally Posted by Shortbus Flashers View Post
wow.... coulda woulda shoulda....

I dont understand how to short but this could have been a good one
You just put in an order to short: sell shares you don't have at the current price. Your broker loans them to you and sells them to open the position.

If the stock goes down, you put in an order to close the position, the broker buys the shares to replace the ones they sold for you, and gives you the difference in price minus any fee's.

But if the stock goes up, to close the position you have to buy shares at that higher price to replace the ones your broker sold, and you have to pay the difference.

Options also let you bet a stock price will go down with a put option. But instead of selling shares, you buy a contract that lets you sell 100 shares for a set price, the contract expires at some date in the future.

If the price of the stock drops between now and the expiration, you can execute the contract, you buy 100 shares at today's lower price, and sell them for the higher contract price to the person who sold you the contract. They're forced to buy them at the price of the contract. You don't even have to execute the contract, if its worth something you can just turn around and resell it, that person can either let it ride or execute to cash it out.
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Old 07-25-2020, 11:52 AM   #318
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A lot of 'conservative' investors that buy and hold are missing the opportunity to gain a bit more return by not doing covered calls. If you have 100 shares of something, check the option price by expiration date. If you find one not too far out that can give you a few hundred, sell a covered call.

If the stock closes at or above the strike price on expiration, your stock will be sold and you will receive the strike price plus the premium you got for selling the call. If the stock price is less, you keep your stock and pocket the premium - extra $$$. At any time during the contract's life you can close the position by buying the same option you sold. Options can be exercised before expiration, but it is very rare for an individual to be picked.

Two things can happen that aren't comfortable.

1) because the stock underlying the covered call is locked - you can't sell it - the market price of the stock might gap up way above the strike price of your holding. But you can't sell it at that elevated price unless you buy the option back at an elevated price that will wipe out any 'extra' value above the strike price.
2) again because of the lock, you can't sell the stock until your option position is closed but the stock price gaps down and keeps going. You can buy back the option at a very low price, but now your stock is worth a lot less. It may be a long time before it recovers - maybe never.

Nothing is risk free. But if you have a solid stock like Microsoft, Walmart, etc., it's not going broke any time soon. Establish your target sell point and sell an option for that amount. Over time you can add a tidy return on a stock you intended to hold until you sold it at your target price.

Whew! Sorry about the long winded primer. Please investigate more if this sounds interesting.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:00 AM   #319
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That is all good information. The really negative side of options in an IRA is they must be covered, and so you relinquish your ability to trade with the covered stock. So many opportunities in today's volatile market that one can't anticipate, i want stocks with high liquidity or cash in my IRA, so I can react quickly to unplanned and unexpected opportunities.
Options are great in a margin account, where you can borrow the money to cover your bets, and still trade with your own cash.
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Old 07-27-2020, 02:49 PM   #320
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I'm not an expert trader by any stretch and I don't short the market much, but sometimes I use ProShares inverse or even leveraged inverse etf’s. Next time the market tanks look at QID, DXD or even UVXY for examples. You can short any sector with these products. It's as easy as buying a stock
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Old 07-27-2020, 02:55 PM   #321
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I'm not an expert trader by any stretch and I don't short the market much, but sometimes I use ProShares inverse or even leveraged inverse etf’s. Next time the market tanks look at QID, DXD or even UVXY for examples. You can short any sector with these products. It's as easy as buying a stock
If you like leveraged ETs, try Direxion. Just don't hold them long.
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Old 09-29-2020, 09:42 AM   #322
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Some of it is just intuition..

Ie gold and precious metals are going to go up because of inflation.(mining stocks hl, btg gold etc)

Lithium stocks are going up because of the push for more ev options. (Pll, livent) ino, etc

Bios are pure gambling, but basic metrics work.

Opko - testing and analysis, ibio rapid covid testing, cydy covid treatments, vaxart - covid vaccines, ino, etc

Pacr builds trucks and posted a profit this Quarter.

Oil stock are very undervauled still. HLX had a huge quarter and is having a good day.

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Anyone still playing the stock game?
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Old 09-29-2020, 10:01 AM   #323
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Anyone still playing the stock game?
I sold everything (huge tax) and moved it to safer mutual funds (ie bond based) for the time being. I will be back when my intuition tells me it is safe to make mucho bucks again.
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Old 09-29-2020, 10:08 AM   #324
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I sold everything (huge tax) and moved it to safer mutual funds (ie bond based) for the time being. I will be back when my intuition tells me it is safe to make mucho bucks again.
There is still some money to be made, but it's getting harder.
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Old 09-29-2020, 10:13 AM   #325
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Anyone still playing the stock game?
Just dumped a Tesla call set to expire this Friday. Come back now and look - it's $10 higher. Only a grand but still made money on it in 5 days. I also bought into the GoodRX IPO the day it started trading. It was up a ton that day but has been going up since. Looks like I'm up over 21% in the week or so that it came out. As long as realized gains exceed realized loss, you're making money.


Oh, last week when Tesla was down I picked up another 10 shares at $390. It's $427 now.
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Old 09-29-2020, 11:10 AM   #326
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What are your guys thoughts on energy stocks? I’ve bought into XOM, NWN, and am ready to buy into ET.

They are very beaten down and seem to be due for a pop with some good news.


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Old 09-29-2020, 11:58 AM   #327
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What are your guys thoughts on energy stocks? I’ve bought into XOM, NWN, and am ready to buy into ET.

They are very beaten down and seem to be due for a pop with some good news.


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My opinion on those are for dividends, or if one want's to trade it would be just on a cyclical timescale. But I don't expect to see long term much capital appreciation in them, mostly because supply is so good on gas and oil and there are so many forces trying to push demand down long term. It that fits within your reasons for buying them then they are fine. IMHO

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Old 09-29-2020, 12:04 PM   #328
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Anybody following Workhorse? Its been going through the roof. Presumably because people think it is going to get the US Post Office contact for new vehicles. I personally don't see how it can get the contract and will likely crash when the winner is announced. The contract winner will likely be announced between October 15th and the end of the year.
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Old 09-29-2020, 12:10 PM   #329
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My opinion on those are for dividends, or if one want's to trade it would be just on a cyclical timescale. But I don't expect to see long term much capital appreciation in them, mostly because supply is so good on gas and oil and there are so many forces trying to push demand down long term. It that fits within your reasons for buying them then they are fine. IMHO

Thanks for the response, I should have added I’m looking long term, for a place to park cash to save for retirement, in addition to a 401k.


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Old 09-29-2020, 01:10 PM   #330
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I bought a bunch (not enough) of ARNA in May for $46.75. Hit a 52-week high yesterday at $76.49.

Citi Group has a one-year price target of $120 so I’m holding.
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Old 09-29-2020, 01:13 PM   #331
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I'm thinking of spot betting on a couple Bio pump and dumps again.

I've made a fair bit this year doing those. Just set your limits and enjoy the ride.
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Old 09-29-2020, 02:45 PM   #332
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I'm thinking of spot betting on a couple Bio pump and dumps again.

I've made a fair bit this year doing those. Just set your limits and enjoy the ride.
I sold my MRNA too soon.
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Old 09-29-2020, 03:17 PM   #333
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Saltaddict.... You don't usually want to park cash with individual stocks for the long term. If you know the company is going to grow substantially over time, it's a sound investment for sure but knowing that in advance is tricky. Individual stocks are generally considered short term investments. Buy low, sell high(er). Good mutual funds will be your best bet so you can let the fund managers do the buying and selling for you.
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Old 09-29-2020, 03:26 PM   #334
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Thanks for the response, I should have added I’m looking long term, for a place to park cash to save for retirement, in addition to a 401k.


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Just keep an eye on longer term trends in energy if you are using fossil fuel based companies for dividends over the long haul. A lot of the 'alternative' energy technology sources that used to be pretty insignificant are starting to mature and their cost coming way down. The 2020's could be a decade where we really start to turn away from fossil fuels. There is not only political pressure against them, they is now starting to be economic pressure against them in a way there really hasn't been in the past. I think the companies you mentioned are good at the moment, but keep an eye on them with regard to longer trends in our mix of energy use and supply, they may not be as rock-solid as they were in the past. I'd guess for oil and natural gas it will be a long slow decline though, not as fast as it was for coal.

If I were constructing a dividend portfolio I'd probably consider throwing in some AT&T or Verizon, maybe some AbbVie or Pfizer, maybe Coca-Cola or PepsiCo, I'd look at some of the REIT's also. Essex Property Trust and Federal Realty Investment Trust both pay good dividends, but their stock price has been beaten down by pandemic issues (They are in apartments and retail space respectively). They could get some appreciation as we come out of the pandemic (hopefully next year). Prologis doesn't by quite have the dividend as those, but is has been growing despite our current weird economic situation. It specializes in warehouse space, specifically warehouse space in locations that lends itself to e-commerce companies. They've been building out new properties despite our troubled times.

Just some ideas to look into, I'm not a financial advisor.

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Old 09-29-2020, 04:41 PM   #335
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I picked up some RMTI at 1.16 1 year estimate is 10. Also WPX at 4.65, 1 year estimate is 9.14.
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Old 09-29-2020, 05:44 PM   #336
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I picked up some RMTI at 1.16 1 year estimate is 10. Also WPX at 4.65, 1 year estimate is 9.14.
WPX could be rough depending on the election.

RMTI looks interesting.

B2gold has been good.

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Old 09-29-2020, 05:47 PM   #337
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If I were constructing a dividend portfolio I'd probably consider throwing in some AT&T or Verizon, maybe some AbbVie or Pfizer, maybe Coca-Cola or PepsiCo, I'd look at some of the REIT's also. Essex Property Trust and Essex Property Trust both pay good dividends, but their stock price has been beaten down by pandemic issues (They are in apartments and retail space respectively). They could get some appreciation as we come out of the pandemic (hopefully next year). Prologis doesn't by quite have the dividend as those, but is has been growing despite our current weird economic situation. It specializes in warehouse space, specifically warehouse space in locations that lends itself to e-commerce companies. They've been building out new properties despite our troubled times.



Just some ideas to look into, I'm not a financial advisor.
I'd steer clear of reits that focus on retail or housing until covid is under control, they've got a few rough quarters ahead of them.



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Old 09-29-2020, 06:51 PM   #338
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DOW futures were $1.00 at 6PM. Sitting about $160 now. Something happen?
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Old 09-29-2020, 07:13 PM   #339
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And now they're down $60.
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Old 09-29-2020, 07:34 PM   #340
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I'd steer clear of reits that focus on retail or housing until covid is under control, they've got a few rough quarters ahead of them.



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True, but they may be close to their lows. One has to be really lucky to hit something right at the low. I've done it a few times, but it was mostly luck that I got it right at the bottom. Usually one is fine if the are buy in close to the low in price and time. I figure the day we have a vaccine approved by the FDA, or it seem clear one will be approved, it may be time to start buying the pandemic recovery companies. (Wait, let's not get into another vaccine argument! )

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Old 09-29-2020, 07:41 PM   #341
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Default Re: Stock Shoppers?

I started with several mutual funds and a little in stocks. Over time, I found the mutual funds that I’m happy with and reduced that to 3. They compliment each other and since I’m retired, that’s good for me. My returns are a lot higher than everyone i know, but I’m not pretending to be an expert.

Meanwhile, I lost money on the stock that my friend the expert chose. Don’t worry, he’s way down compared to me, and I was smart enough to only put a small bit on “his” stock pick. Later, I found out that he pulled out and neglected to tell me which caused me to lose money.

I think it was Warren Buffet that I read that said mutual funds are good because they provide you the ability to go up with the market but also give you diversification. A good play unless you want to be a stock expert, and think you can pick stocks better than those who get paid to do it.

My two cents ... buy lots of mutual funds that don’t have high charges and pick a “few” that you are happy with. Don’t time the market and don’t try to pick the “best” stocks.
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Old 09-29-2020, 07:43 PM   #342
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WPX could be rough depending on the election.

RMTI looks interesting.

B2gold has been good.

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WPX is merging with Devin Energy. Speculation is its a good fit. As RHD said, once a vaccine hits, things will start popping.

I wonder how much more room B2gold has to grow. Median estimates for the next year are 8.62. Could be a nice hedge if there’s a big downturn.
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Old 09-29-2020, 09:04 PM   #343
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True, but they may be close to their lows. One has to be really lucky to hit something right at the low. I've done it a few times, but it was mostly luck that I got it right at the bottom. Usually one is fine if the are buy in close to the low in price and time. I figure the day we have a vaccine approved by the FDA, or it seem clear one will be approved, it may be time to start buying the pandemic recovery companies. (Wait, let's not get into another vaccine argument! )
They're atleast 2 quarters out from showing their bottom in earnings. I worked for a REIT for 5 years, they're no where near the bottom yet.

As for vaccines, they're 20 different players right now, I play those on my short game.

I've made 20k since may playing the swings on VBIV, VXRT, IBIO, HTBX, OPKO. etc, they are all volatile and have balance sheets that don't match their values. In and out is the best play on those.

Long play I'm in on OSH (bought on the ipo), DOCU, PETQ, Payp, venmo

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Old 09-29-2020, 11:41 PM   #344
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They're atleast 2 quarters out from showing their bottom in earnings. I worked for a REIT for 5 years, they're no where near the bottom yet.

As for vaccines, they're 20 different players right now, I play those on my short game.

I've made 20k since may playing the swings on VBIV, VXRT, IBIO, HTBX, OPKO. etc, they are all volatile and have balance sheets that don't match their values. In and out is the best play on those.

Long play I'm in on OSH (bought on the ipo), DOCU, PETQ, Payp, venmo

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Yeah, I said as we hopefully come out of the pandemic next year. 2 quarters put that into spring of next year. Not really that far away for long term investors. Time to start thinking about what stocks that have have been beaten down will recover when we all hopefully are able poke our noses outside and resume our normal lives next year. If one is looking for dividends long term, buying a little early and locking in an average 4% dividend for years (after a quarter or two of lower dividends) may beat waiting for stock earning and price start to rise and only locking in a average 3% dividend. In our low interest rate environment bonds suck, so some are left playing the dividend game looking for that source of income. It is a bit different that those playing the swings in stock prices.
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Old 09-30-2020, 10:59 AM   #345
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Bought on the pltr ipo today, looks interesting to say the least.

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Old 09-30-2020, 11:36 AM   #346
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Have I mentioned that I hate politicians? Just kissed 8K goodbye because a grandstanding political leader announced that they were very far apart on a stimulus bill. How about you shut your mouth, work behind closed doors, and create a compromise bill that helps the American people? I know 8K is pocket change to them, but the arrogance of the powerful to fail to serve the people is overwhelming. I hope this isn't construed as a political post. I hate them all equally.

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Old 09-30-2020, 02:16 PM   #347
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We've lost considerable value several times over the past couple of years, as much as 50K a day but we haven't lost any money because we didn't sell. With all that lost value, we made it all back and more because we didn't sell. Panic selling can get expensive.
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Old 09-30-2020, 02:37 PM   #348
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We've lost considerable value several times over the past couple of years, as much as 50K a day but we haven't lost any money because we didn't sell. With all that lost value, we made it all back and more because we didn't sell. Panic selling can get expensive.
I didn't sell either. I'm talking about an IRA account, and don't have to take a withdrawal until December of 2021. It is still lost value when your balance declines by $8000! Politicians should think of all the consequences, before they pop off with their political gamesmanship.
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Old 09-30-2020, 05:22 PM   #349
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Have I mentioned that I hate politicians?
Can I add CEOs to the list? My companies previous CEO caused the stock to go down every time he opened his mouth. I always wondered if he was doing it to buy back stock.
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Old 09-30-2020, 05:42 PM   #350
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Can I add CEOs to the list? My companies previous CEO caused the stock to go down every time he opened his mouth. I always wondered if he was doing it to buy back stock.
He'll probably become a politician after he loses his CEO job.
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Old 10-01-2020, 09:33 AM   #351
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I'm thinking about taking a long term position in ccl. I know I could use a vacation right now.
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Old 10-01-2020, 04:03 PM   #352
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Long term I like CCL, as well as NCLH. There are others that are bargains as well.
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Old 10-01-2020, 07:08 PM   #353
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Long term I like CCL, as well as NCLH. There are others that are bargains as well.
what other long term bargains are you thinking? I'm holding jets too for a long term play.
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Old 10-01-2020, 08:03 PM   #354
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In my experience bottom feeding has been profitable over the years. Is this different?
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Old 10-01-2020, 08:16 PM   #355
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Long term I like CCL, as well as NCLH. There are others that are bargains as well.
You figure more people are going to cruise as we recover?
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Old 10-02-2020, 06:06 AM   #356
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Long term I like CCL, as well as NCLH. There are others that are bargains as well.
I keep looking but worrry about BK and just loosing it all. Any worry on your side?
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Old 10-03-2020, 04:08 PM   #357
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Long term I like Chevron, rds-a (shell), plug, Boeing, Nokia, to name a few.

I think once the cruises open up, people will flock to them the 1st year.

Big banks should do well when the economy gets back on track.

These are just my opinions.

Rds-a is at a 52 year low, for example. Chevron, ccl, have good dividend track records.
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Old 10-04-2020, 08:18 AM   #358
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Hunter...I was with PLUG for 8 years. Sold it all about a month ago. You know the patience that was required for that! Do you think PLUG and hydrogen is stable and dependable? Do you think the large companies that are using PLUG services/products are 100% on board?
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Old 10-05-2020, 06:33 AM   #359
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I'm struggling to decide on which Lithium stock to park long term with this electric car craze. Anyone have thoughts?
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:57 AM   #360
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I'm struggling to decide on which Lithium stock to park long term with this electric car craze. Anyone have thoughts?
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