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2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

65K views 413 replies 77 participants last post by  IdahoBeav 
#1 ·
Does anyone know the date/time of the seed number draw? I would like to attend this year.
 
#7 · (Edited)
ODFW drawing 101

Oregon is unique in that we use a "seed number" as the starting number for filling tags. Most states sort by points, then random numbers, then go "up" from zero trying to fill tags.

Oregon sorts by points and random numbers as well, but, goes up from the species "seed number", which eliminates any possibility of the random number generator giving preference to anyone, including but not limited to, first time Sheep applicants. The dept has 10 numbered ping pong balls that get spun around in a little wooden box and members of the public pick one ball at a time, creating a 10 digit number, starting with the left most digit. The draw computer will go "up" from this number, to 9,999,999,999 then loop around to 0 and continue up, so...... if you have the points to draw in the PP side, your number won't matter that much however, if you are on the cusp, say 100 max point apps and 75 tags in the PP side, you want a number in the 75 percentile. It's obviously not perfect but you can divide the number of apps into the total seed number possibilities and get a ratio of random numbers per app. If there are 500,000 possibles per app and you know your random number and the seed number, you can make a beer league guess as to whether the computer will hit your number before it fills all the tags. This is assuming an even spread of random numbers across the applicants. My 2018 Antelope random number was 8,734,875,258, and the Antelope seed number was 7,152,648,667. Knowing I "should" be in the max point pool for that hunt, and a good random number, I was sure I'd draw. Even if people jumped in, I should draw in the random side with that number. Turns out a bunch of apps moved in with more points and they only pulled a handful from my point pool but with that good number I drew.

You carry that random number to the random draw as well, so, if you just missed in the PP side, you will have an advantage of a good random number in the random side. If your random number is just under the seed number, you're pretty much hooped unless you have the points or the hunt is under subscribed.

Oregon also creates their application random numbers differently than most others. Oregon creates your app random number when you hit the "submit" button on your app, per species. Wyoming for example, sorts the app database by customer ID then assigns random numbers thru that sorted database.

Knowing how this process works, the oft mentioned "preference to first time Sheep applicants" is impossible, unless the draw computer scans the applicant history and determines he/she is a first time Sheep applicant, then knowing this, the computer jumps forward in time to the seed number party and watches Stonefly and QQ draw those seed numbers, then bounces back to real time and assigns a random number to that first timer just above that seed number, then, the computer would have to look at every subsequent app and assign a higher random number to ensure the first timer drew.

The reality is, ODFW could allow every applicant to choose their own random numbers, at any time during the app period, and until you can look into the future and watch them create those seed numbers, preference to anyone is impossible.
 
#14 ·
has the process changed? Is this the new process or the one that has existed. I understand the new raffle process and I really think the new system is way more fair and I like that is is fair. It totally messed with my methods for buying raffle tickets, but at the end of the day a fair system is the best system. I will say having excelled at statistics, I partnered with a professor of statistics at the UofO in about 2002ish. I got all the data for the prior 6 years on apps, and who drew what, he and I studied it and we proved (never made public) that 1st time, even up to third time applicants, were more likely to draw sheep tags. I shared this with ODFW. I was never privy to the actual process in creating the numbers or the code at the time (I was told to sue for it). Since then I have near zero confidence in the true fairness of the draw system, not that someone can game it, but it's inherent bias towards certain groups, first time applicants. It sounds like things may have changed, i know now that the raffle system has really changed.
 
#15 ·
WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.
 
#24 ·
All of this is new to me.

And now (Thanks to you:flowered:), all I can envision is Bingo night at the elks lodge with someone reaching into the basket and pulling out sheep tag winners!
 
#26 ·
That's either awesome or sad.

Mostly depends on if I draw or not.:lurk:
 
#31 ·
I emailed one year and got them. It kinda spoiled Christmas. I will be waiting for results to be posted.

Sent from my LM-G820 using Tapatalk
 
#34 ·
Do these seed numbers, in any way, indicate if you will draw or not?
 
#40 ·
The process itself: Here is a step-by-step process of how the random computerized controlled hunt draw works:

  • Each application purchased is assigned a random 10-digit number.
  • Members of the public are invited to ODFW headquarters to randomly choose a 10-digit draw seed number for each hunt series. (Call 503-947-6108 to participate in the drawing.)
  • Applicants for each hunt are grouped by preference points and first choice hunt selected.
  • Tags are awarded in each preference point group beginning with the applicant whose 10-digit number matches, or is closest to and above, the seed number. The selection continues with the applicant having the next higher 10-digit number, until 75% of the tags have been awarded or until all first-choice applicants have received tags.
  • All remaining first-choice applicants are rearranged solely by 10-digit random number and the remaining 25% of tags are awarded randomly among all first-choice applicants for the hunt.
  • If there are tags left, the process restarts for second choice hunt applicants. (Preference points are not a factor for awarding 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th choices.)


https://dfw.state.or.us/news/2013/april/041013.asp
 
#53 ·
Sure sounds complicated. I never figured Bingo ball selection had so much effort involved.
 
#61 ·
The report I would want to see is what if any draws were changed.........
 
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