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Old 08-27-2019, 06:07 PM   #1
snaggedup
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Default South Wind

This weekend is supposed to be low wind low swell long periods
everyone says watch out for south wind .Whats to watch out for ?

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Old 08-27-2019, 06:51 PM   #2
Don G Baldi
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Default Re: South Wind

Quote:
Originally Posted by snaggedup View Post
This weekend is supposed to be low wind low swell long periods
everyone says watch out for south wind .Whats to watch out for ?
South predictions can be very wrong. Especially when it blows against a northerly well. There's a thread here about a south wind going from 4kts to over 10kts in two hours - that wasn't predicted (if memory serves). Over time you learn that a southerly wind makes for an unpleasant ride more often than not. You can still run out and fish, but it will often be lumpier than a westerly or northerly wind.


https://www.ifish.net/board/showthread.php?t=1595515
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:06 PM   #3
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My fishing buddy, good friend and great captian had his boat flipped over from southerly winds kicking up. Change are thinking greatly. This weekend looks nice but if any build at all. I'd start heading in if it was me.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:14 PM   #4
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Default Re: South Wind

Best to listen to the old salts here Snagup.
It ain't no bull. Be aware. VERY aware.
Being too safe isn't near as bad as swimming in deep water.
Thank Gawd my ship was big enough. But it was pretty iffy at times.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:43 PM   #5
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Default Re: South Wind

I once heard "There are old sailors, there are bold sailors but there aren't many old bold sailors"
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Old 08-27-2019, 09:29 PM   #6
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Default Re: South Wind

I don’t mess with south winds, it may not get you this time or the next, but it will eventually. Unpredictable is a understatement.
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Old 08-27-2019, 09:29 PM   #7
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Default Re: South Wind

Most of us know the effect on swells coming into an outgoing current on the bar, it tends to “stand up” the swell, aka make it steeper. IMO that’s part of what can and often does happen with a south wind or a wind with a south component. The current out there is not monolithic, but generally it’s going south most of the year. So a south wind and the wind waves generated by it are going against the current which makes those waves steeper. Plus the ww are generally not in the direction of the swells and the interaction of the ww and swells makes for a nasty ride on most boats.
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Old 08-27-2019, 10:06 PM   #8
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Default Re: South Wind

Exactly what Ron said.

I am not as concerned with this southerly, because it is not really associated with a hard front, or a deep low pressure area.
Windy is probably the most skeptical, but still very fishable. (The last time I looked) , but wetsands, magic seaweed, noaa, weather service, spot check....are all in good agreement.

We will see what tomorrow says, but I think it is shaping up nice, maybe a few sheep 20 miles out, but nice inshore.

I hope.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:51 AM   #9
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Default Re: South Wind

.MARINE...The push of southerly winds up the coast has reached
about Cape Foulweather early this morning as of 3 AM. Meanwhile
northerly winds continue across the northern coastal waters,
with local gusts between 20 and 25 kt continue over the extreme
outer waters in the area of buoy 46089. Given that these are
isolated and likely generally beyond the extent of the coastal
waters, the remaining Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire.
With surface low pressure centered well offshore to the west of
the coastal waters (along 130 W) and drifting north, southerly
winds will eventually expand over the remaining coastal waters
today and continue into Thursday. Could see a few local gusts to
20 kt, but not anticipating widespread advisory strength gusts at
this time. A weak front may approach the waters late in the
week.

Meanwhile, seas remain generally 4 to 6 feet through the week.
However, conditions will be locally steep for another day, with
dominant periods holding around 6 to 7 seconds for the next day
or so before increasing to around 9 seconds. Cullen
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Old 08-28-2019, 05:12 AM   #10
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Default Re: South Wind

Where are you guys seeing reports that aren't bad? I'm seeing gusts over 20mph out of the south at the Astoria canyon for the weekend. That's more than I wanna deal with. What do you consider too much for a South wind?
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:31 AM   #11
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Default Re: South Wind

Quote:
Originally Posted by snaggedup View Post
This weekend is supposed to be low wind low swell long periods
everyone says watch out for south wind .Whats to watch out for ?
To ad to this this thread. Our PNW coastal weather comes predominately out of the nw to wnw during boat season. Wind, waves and currents from this set the pattern of sandbars and shelters for shore fish to hang out of the surge.
When the winds blow from the sw its all ass backwards. Fish dont like it and alot of sediment gets stirred up along shoreline that is deposited in eddys from the normal weather pattern. Its hard to bottom fish in the places you are used to as drifts are all in reverse.
Crossing bars is another story as the waves are breaking differently on the sand shoals and in most cases its much more hazardous.
These are the south winds most people refer to which are associated with storm fronts. Time to stay in harbor!
5-10kt south winds are breezes and no big deal and dont affect things that much. Just need to check that they are not associated with a strong front where the winds are forecasted to possibly pick up.
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:53 AM   #12
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Default Re: South Wind

Quote:
Originally Posted by glowball View Post
Where are you guys seeing reports that aren't bad? I'm seeing gusts over 20mph out of the south at the Astoria canyon for the weekend. That's more than I wanna deal with. What do you consider too much for a South wind?
The forecasts for the central OR coast for this weekend generally show less wind nearshore than offshore. Strong winds on the tuna grounds for us too will keep me nearshore IF I fish. Strong S wind anywhere outside isn’t fun.
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:09 AM   #13
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Default Re: South Wind

On a normal year there will be a southerly the middle of Sept, which sends the pigeons packing, also one shows in July.

I think what surprises some, (me included) and the weatherman as well, is the lows that intensify rather quickly just off our coast.

A few years ago this happened and I made it up the Umpqua just before they closed the highway for downed trees.... in Sept.
30 years ago, I was up in the hills ( logging above Lincoln city)and could hear commercials talking about broken poles and windows on the CB. One asked what it was like on the beach, and I told him...dead calm. By the time I got to the beach it was blowing over 40.

Another story in Sept, sent 13 commercials that were heavy with tuna to the bottom as they all ran for the river.

A guy I worked with had a dory fishing brother, one time it got so bad he jumped in a bigger dory, left his to drift, as it got worse , they both jumped in a bigger commercial. The next day the CC found both boats still adrift....true story.

Back in hmmmm...2003? When this sport tuna thing was getting started, a few of us were out and it kept getting worse and worse. After seeing enough blue water on the window, I said screw this and headed in. Later a boat that stayed had his rag top collapse and took out his radio.

Not trying to freak anyone out, and it is fairly rare these happen....but always from the south. Today they have so much better forecasting and it much safer.

I think most have gotten scared once or twice and it never gets forgotten.

As far as current forecast, I am going fishing.

Last edited by wak'm&stak'm; 08-28-2019 at 07:10 AM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:52 AM   #14
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Default Re: South Wind

In general, I hate southerly. It’s usually a short burst and often comes in worse than predicted. It also often blows across our dominant swell direction, which stands things up even more.

But, this one seems fairly consistent and with the swell for now. So, I’m not as concerned. Plus, it’ll be behind us on the way home.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:04 AM   #15
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Default Re: South Wind

MagicSeaweed for Winchester Bay shows it getting worse this weekend every day i have checked. Saturday afternoon looks like crap now.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:56 AM   #16
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Default Re: South Wind

My experience with south wind ,no matter the swell size IT SUCKS!
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:02 AM   #17
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Default Re: South Wind

Current v. wind can make for an ugly ocean. But low S (<10kts) in a stable weather pattern like this is of less concern to me than say a 10-15kt S wind that is predicted as the front or trailing edge of a storm system.


I have gone fishing on many, many days when 5-10kts of S wind is predicted and it winds up light and variable or even out of the west or NW. If it comes up 10mph worse, and out of the south, you take your lumps, but you won't die.



Going fishing with more than 15kts of S wind predicted for fun is a fools errand. It will not be fun.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:49 AM   #18
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What about a south wind with a south or southwest swell, as predicted?
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:56 AM   #19
ron m
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Default Re: South Wind

Quote:
Originally Posted by newportfisher View Post
What about a south wind with a south or southwest swell, as predicted?
Usually still have the current “against the wind” situation/problem and it can make both the ww and the swell steeper and not fun being out there.
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:42 AM   #20
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Default Re: South Wind

If the forecast holds, and it usually does when the GFS and ECWMF are in agreement, Sunday and Monday look viable with Monday currently getting the nod.

Both models have the swell from the SW thru the weekend and a South wind, with GFS having a wind transition day on Monday, from light South to light North.

The computer model forecasts are still fluid but firming up and falling more into agreement each day as we get closer. Both models are needed for comparison to reach high confidence forecasts.

The biggest summer wind storm I remember was out of the North in 1968. Predicted to exceed 50kt on the coast, and hit mid day, it was all of that.

When we got up to Cape Lookout in the morning there were already three big live bait tuna clippers and about twenty salmon trollers anchored in the lee of the Cape, the best North wind anchorage on the entire coast.

I had never seen the tuna clippers before. They had come in to keep their bait alive in the 30 ft seas on the outside and soon to hit the coast. As the day went on we trolled salmon around the anchor chains of the growing fleet taking refuge behind the Cape. By mid afternoon there were about a dozen live bait tuna boats and more than fifty salmon trollers anchored up, many with bow and stern anchors.

The tuna clippers were a sight my 15 year old eyes would never forget. From about 50 ft to 200 ft, the rails were lined with brown people, curious about the dories and the salmon we were catching. A few rods even appeared along the rail of the biggest boats and on the fishing decks on the sterns. No Idea if any salmon were caught, but very likely some were. It was still good fishing wen we left with 50+salmon for the eight mile downhill run to Cape Kiwanda.

By the time we headed home the ocean was mostly white with these big rolling coils of foam, bigger than our boat, flying across the surface and hitting our boat like soft pillows,(for lack of a better description). The whitecaps on the crests of the seas were tall when they broke then quickly blasted to foam by the wind.

Happily the seas were big enough that we could maneuver on the wave to avoid most of the breaking caps. A few we could not avoid and that was kinda scary. A couple in particular that broke directly under the boat, dropping us the 8-10ft to the solid water on the face. Nothing really life threatening though. I did have that day in mind, however, when I named my current boat 'Wild Ride'. Dad and I always agreed that we were glad we did it but had no desire to repeat it.

Heh heh, what started as a weather report turned into a story to illustrate that even a North wind can make it lumpy out there and may serve as an extreme example of the very real difference in the nature of N and S winds on our local waters.....A fifty kt South wind would have not been as benign.
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Last edited by Joe Evens; 08-28-2019 at 10:46 AM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:41 PM   #21
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Default Re: South Wind

Latest NOAA forecast for the mid-coast is now 10-15 kt winds w/ gusts to 20 on Saturday... looks like Monday/Tuesday might be the next window.

https://marine.weather.gov/MapClick....5#.XWbz7uhKjIU
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:30 PM   #22
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Default Re: South Wind

Here's what I see for a spot forecast for Saturday 8NM NW of Newport;
8NM NW Newport OR
Marine Point Forecast

Friday
S wind 8 to 10 kt. Partly sunny. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Wind waves around 2 ft.

Friday Night
Variable winds 5 kt or less. Mostly cloudy. SW swell 2 ft. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Saturday
S wind around 6 kt. A chance of showers. SW swell 2 ft. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Saturday Night
S wind around 9 kt. Mostly cloudy. SW swell 4 ft. Wind waves around 2 ft.


We're going to fish for ANY Coho and hopefully Halibut.
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