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Old 08-14-2019, 02:18 PM   #1
team anarchy
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Portfolio went down over $16000 today. Not a fun day.

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Old 08-14-2019, 02:24 PM   #2
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I've been nauseas for a couple weeks now. Ready to reduce my exposure when (if) we get a bump
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Old 08-14-2019, 02:25 PM   #3
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One day does not a trend make.
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Old 08-14-2019, 02:33 PM   #4
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about 2 months ago i reduced my risk, especially in our sons 529, he starts college soon. some of this will recover, but all economic indicator at least traditional indicators show the chances of another recession is looming. add in the sky rocketing national debt, trade war with china, consumers bearing the brunt of the higher costs of chinese goods, and the market is going to get volatile. some of the value will come back, i suspect tomorrow may be off then friday some of the market will rebound. but tough roads ahead. we were hit hard today as well.
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Old 08-14-2019, 02:39 PM   #5
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You didn’t lose money unless you sold after the drop.

This is just a repeat of what happened a few times over the past couple of years. Computers freak out and go on a sell spree. Then, the market comes roaring back. This is not a traditional economy, so traditional indicators don’t work.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s pretty easy to notice this trend. Stock market is a long term investment, or you have to be super lucky and need a crystal ball to make money.
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Old 08-14-2019, 02:51 PM   #6
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I'm afraid to look.
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Old 08-14-2019, 02:53 PM   #7
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Sell high and buy low. Pretty simple concept.
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Old 08-14-2019, 03:43 PM   #8
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Default Re: Stock Market

It's the Russians again.
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Old 08-14-2019, 03:56 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Stick'em View Post
One day does not a trend make.
The inverted yield curve begs to differ. I have been saving more than I spend for quite some time waiting for this opportunity which may present it self sooner than later. panic at the disco. Im hoping to move it on up next-door to my buddy on the river who cashed in on the 2009 crash. Sure was a nice ride.

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Old 08-14-2019, 04:00 PM   #10
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Uh, no, it is a certain trade warrior accelerating the trend.
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Old 08-14-2019, 04:12 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Bill Rogue V. View Post
Uh, no, it is a certain trade warrior accelerating the trend.
Include a pending nov 20th election and now you have a perfect chance for utter pandemonium. Of course the people living in 2 bedroom million dollar condos don't see something brewing
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Old 08-14-2019, 04:36 PM   #12
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Food for thought.

In the past 100 years, the DOW has been down 3% or more in 307 individual days.

While there are plenty of signs of recession, this is normal market behavior. We have become used to the unusually low volatility of recent years. It skews our perspective.

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Old 08-14-2019, 04:45 PM   #13
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For once, I’m glad I’ve got nearly 20 years to go...


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Old 08-14-2019, 04:58 PM   #14
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Default Re: Stock Market

It went down 800.5 points. I would sleep better tonight if it was only 799 points.
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Old 08-14-2019, 06:13 PM   #15
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It's August. What did you expect?
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:51 PM   #16
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I started a Roth IRA in the beginning of the year. I put in $25 dollars a week. I just checked and I still have $50 more than I put in. Might be time to put an extra $25 in this week. 30 years to go!


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Old 08-14-2019, 07:54 PM   #17
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It was approx 19,800 when Pres Obama left office in 2017, it's 25,479 now after dropping 800. The sky is not falling. Not yet anyway.
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:56 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by jimh View Post

I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s pretty easy to notice this trend. Stock market is a long term investment, or you have to be super lucky and need a crystal ball to make money.
Yep. I remember when a young Dan Rather announced on the news when the Dow broke 1000. It's a long term investment...
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Old 08-14-2019, 08:08 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by uhmw View Post
The inverted yield curve begs to differ. I have been saving more than I spend for quite some time waiting for this opportunity which may present it self sooner than later. panic at the disco. Im hoping to move it on up next-door to my buddy on the river who cashed in on the 2009 crash. ....

I agree. The inverted yield curve, depending on the duration, has been with us for some weeks.


As far as 'movin' on up" PM me if you want want a place on the Sandy, in the vicinity of Tad's restaurant.
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Old 08-14-2019, 08:44 PM   #20
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If you're not in it for the long haul, probably shouldn't be in at all...unless you are much smarter than me. What's the "long haul" is the 24$ question, lol. Unless you think the talcum powder fiasco going to sting J&J, it's a pretty solid buy right now for long term dividend investors.....
And look at the dip earlier this year. We aint seen nuthin yet. I'd do a little buying if it does that again and the news isn't too gnarly. Blood in the streets and all that.
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Old 08-14-2019, 09:10 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garyk View Post
I agree. The inverted yield curve, depending on the duration, has been with us for some weeks.


As far as 'movin' on up" PM me if you want want a place on the Sandy, in the vicinity of Tad's restaurant.


Oh my... That brings me back. I’ve got family that lived on Wand and Hurt for many years. Spent way too many nights in the Springdale Tavern, Tippy’s, and Hagar’s before it sold.

Oddly, I’ve never been in Tad’s Chicken and Dumplin’s. Bet I’ve still got a jar of horseradish from Big Bear’s in the fridge...


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Last edited by Chad D.; 08-14-2019 at 09:14 PM.
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Old 08-14-2019, 10:04 PM   #22
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The inverted yield curve is a bit concerning, it is a decent, but still imperfect predictor of a future downturn in the economy. I think this time it is pretty much just a symptom of other troubles that we are seeing. Not that that makes it any better, it just isn't really telling us anything we shouldn't already know.

The trade war is being conducted in a capricious and ham-fisted way, not only creating more cost to a lot U.S. businesses, but a lot of uncertainty about the future. Even if it works out in the end, it is causing a lot of economic disruption that will last into the future. The Chinese economy is slowing down, almost certainly more than they are letting on. Europe is having problems, the final chapter for Brexit is coming up and the German GDP shank last quarter. The U.S. economy, while still appearing somewhat strong and resilient show some signs of slowing, exports have been dropping due to the previous mentioned issues, a strong dollar and cancellations of orders for Boeing's self-crashing airplanes. Domestic spending and demand seems to still be strong a the moment though. Obviously, from all this I think we are likely heading into a rough patch economically. However, since I don't think the U.S. is in as bad a position as some of the other major economies, I think our markets have a decent change of somewhat holding up as it will still look like a good place (relatively) to put money on the global markets.

Personally, I'm kind of on both sides of the stock market. Still got 10 to 15 years until retirement, so buying at lower prices isn't a bad thing there for me. But on the other side I am trying to convert some of my daughters college fund from the market into cash. Did some in the July highs after waiting for a bump after Mays dip, was going to more about now but not sure at the moment. I can probably do it reasonably anytime over the next year, so I trying to take some out on the highs and not the lows. Difficult to figure out with this volatility.
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Old 08-15-2019, 11:57 AM   #23
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Inverted yield curve is only a prediction of a recession in the future. I think we already knew we are overdue. Historically after a inversion the recession is 15-24 months out. In the meantime, the last 5 inverted yield curves produced double digit returns before the market blew up. Good article on Market Watch discussing this. Good chance the upcoming presidential election or just before will be a potential trigger point. Some of the candidates tax and economic policy proposals could kill things very quickly.
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Old 08-15-2019, 12:43 PM   #24
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Yes, elections have consequences. At then end of October 2016 the DOW stood at 18,142. At the end of November 2016, two weeks after the election, the DOW was 19,124. It's gone up a bit since then as well. Currently the DOW is only 2%ish off its all time high. Not time to wring hands quite yet.
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:43 PM   #25
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Doesn't anyone remember the last bad resession and the policies that caused them? Remember the drastic measures taken to overt an all-out depression?
Credit was not given to the bipartisan efforts to avoid it. And yes there was bipartisan cooperation at first.
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:00 PM   #26
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The last time we had an inverted yield curve like this we had the great recession of 08', to be fair we were due as aprox every 20 years a major crash occurs, only 11 years since the last crash, but since a bandaid was used last time, perhaps we are already due?
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Old 08-15-2019, 03:06 PM   #27
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Never was the time coming to go hunting more appropriate. I could be depressed,as I have reached the age of mandatory withdrawals from my SEP IRA, but I am so focused on preparations for archery season that down 30+K has virtually zero impact on me. THAT IS WHY WE HUNT!!
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Old 08-15-2019, 06:14 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I-Builtit View Post
Doesn't anyone remember the last bad resession and the policies that caused them? Remember the drastic measures taken to overt an all-out depression?

Credit was not given to the bipartisan efforts to avoid it. And yes there was bipartisan cooperation at first.
I couldn't disagree more. The policies put in place almost guaranteed the worst recession recovery in US history. Instead of taking our medicine, we chose to spread the pain over time. Our kids will still be paying for it.

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Old 08-16-2019, 04:15 PM   #29
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All the market volatility is how the big trading houses make their money. Best for long haul investors to ignore it and stick to our age and risk tolerance allocation models. I still like J&J, and bought a little more a couple weeks ago.. Love dividend growth sticks when they are priced right. It may just sit in its current price range for awhile, but showed resilience over the last few days of dropsies. I bet is in 5-10 years the talcum fiasco will be long in the rear view mirror. That 3% yield is nice. Most of my market money is in low cost ETF's, but owning a few blue chip dividend achievers seems like a good way to go. A good blue chip dividend ETF like SCHD is worth a look during corrections.

JNJ

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JNJ?s=jnj

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https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHD?s=schd
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Old 08-16-2019, 08:19 PM   #30
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Mostly the market doesn't like uncertainty.

Pretty sure things are the most uncertain in the world right now that they've been in quite a while.

Support him or not....the current leader of the free world thrives on uncertainty and chaos....and has made, and lost, mucho money because of it.

Some people are going to massively increase their fortunes, most will not.

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Old 08-16-2019, 08:31 PM   #31
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Uncertainty and chaos is opportunity. One of the best things I’ve learned.
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Old 08-17-2019, 07:42 AM   #32
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If we have a different president in 2020 I would say things will be very bad for our retirement.
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Old 08-17-2019, 07:49 AM   #33
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If we have a different president in 2020 I would say things will be very bad for our retirement.
Why would you say that? In what way?
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:17 AM   #34
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Why would you say that? In what way?
look at the choices.
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Old 08-17-2019, 08:57 AM   #35
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“For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America's golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America's social security promises will be honored and perhaps made more generous. And, yes, America's kids will live far better than their parents did.”

I’ll take my advice from one of the wealthiest people in the world, it hasn’t steered me wrong yet.
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Old 08-17-2019, 10:59 AM   #36
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I guess if I only look at the stock market, then maybe. Catering to 1%ers typically results in a loosening of regulation that gives the market a bounce. We have certainly seen a bounce.

But if I put on my sportsman hat, a guy that enjoys the outdoors and wants to keep public spaces public and have something to catch and hunt, election day can't get here soon enough.




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look at the choices.
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Old 08-17-2019, 11:42 AM   #37
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I guess if I only look at the stock market, then maybe. Catering to 1%ers typically results in a loosening of regulation that gives the market a bounce. We have certainly seen a bounce.

But if I put on my sportsman hat, a guy that enjoys the outdoors and wants to keep public spaces public and have something to catch and hunt, election day can't get here soon enough.
There is no barrier to entry to the stock market, none! Sure you need money but if you have money, you to can enjoy the American ride. And it doesn’t take much to get started.

And from your sportsman/ political side I’m assuming you mean getting to vote out our crazy political left in this state because as far as I can tell the left has been running/driving the NW environmental policies for decades and we have little to show for it. you couldn’t possibly be talking about a president who has only been in office three years and blaming him for what you are or are not able to kill or harvest in the NW. I guess since he has been president for three years it’s now ok to blame every political woe, complaint, disagreement on him. Lol
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:09 PM   #38
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Sadly, sportsmen will reap the mess of this presidency for a very very long time. The rollbacks are real and the people put in decision-making power are NOT aligned with the values of the average sportsman who likes to fish and hunt on public lands.



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There is no barrier to entry to the stock market, none! Sure you need money but if you have money, you to can enjoy the American ride. And it doesn’t take much to get started.

And from your sportsman/ political side I’m assuming you mean getting to vote out our crazy political left in this state because as far as I can tell the left has been running/driving the NW environmental policies for decades and we have little to show for it. you couldn’t possibly be talking about a president who has only been in office three years and blaming him for what you are or are not able to kill or harvest in the NW. I guess since he has been president for three years it’s now ok to blame every political woe, complaint, disagreement on him. Lol
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:41 PM   #39
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Sadly, sportsmen will reap the mess of this presidency for a very very long time. The rollbacks are real and the people put in decision-making power are NOT aligned with the values of the average sportsman who likes to fish and hunt on public lands.
Not even a little bit, but don’t let your politics for other issues get in the way of the facts.

You only have to look at other states to see how poorly OR, CA, and WA are run with respect to fish, outdoor activities, and wildlife. You should wonder why the fishing/outdoors/hunting is so much better in some of these other states. It doesn’t take a genius to see the federal govt is not the issue no matter which party is in power.
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:42 PM   #40
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Another thought on long haul investing in a "high" market, here's someone who I think was referenced above: Warren Buffett. I just bought a little BRK.B mostly because of his cash holding right now--he's perched to take advantage of a downturn. .
Regardless of who "is President," especially in our lifetimes, the economy has been cyclical. In other words, it can't go on like this forever and at least a moderate recession is almost inevitable-- if history repeats itself....
Buffett is sitting on a pile of cash now (aprx. $122B) and has a bunch of bank stocks, which have badly under performed the rest of the market in the last few years. Also, since time has proven that all things being equal, stocks and sectors tend to "trend back towards the mean," banks might not be a bad long term bet.
I only mentioned JNJ because it can be hard to find value when the market seems topped out. Cash and patience is another good bet...seems like what Buffett is up to.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...ying-berkshire

BRK.B

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Old 08-17-2019, 01:06 PM   #41
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Nothing to do with politics at all (although it would be simple if that was the case)... look at the backgrounds of many of the individuals put into place within the last 3 years. Strong support of extraction industries, privatization of public spaces, and deregulation of environmental regulations of almost any kind. What part of that is good for the average wealth outdoorsman in Oregon? I don't know about you but I like to sometimes catch a fish or see a deer when I am out enjoying the outdoors.

Not sure I follow the other part of your part of your post about better opportunities in other states. That certainly doesn't match my experience. Sure it is easy to get an antelope tag in Wyoming but that isn't evidence of proper management... just a lot of habitat for those critters over there!

Quote:
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Not even a little bit, but don’t let your politics for other issues get in the way of the facts.

You only have to look at other states to see how poorly OR, CA, and WA are run with respect to fish, outdoor activities, and wildlife. You should wonder why the fishing/outdoors/hunting is so much better in some of these other states. It doesn’t take a genius to see the federal govt is not the issue no matter which party is in power.
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