2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers - www.ifish.net

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Old 05-14-2019, 07:56 PM   #1
Stonefly1
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Default 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Does anyone know the date/time of the seed number draw? I would like to attend this year.

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Old 05-14-2019, 08:13 PM   #2
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I heard there are donuts, so I might come, too.

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Old 05-14-2019, 09:03 PM   #3
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I talked to the draw dept boss last week; was told the 21st.
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Old 05-15-2019, 07:02 AM   #4
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I need a pm with how the seed numbers work

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Old 05-15-2019, 08:36 AM   #5
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I heard there are donuts, so I might come, too.

QQ
I heard the donuts they served last year were amazing! Warm and fresh like the baker just pulled them out of the oven. Some people were even able to eat 2!


I also heard the drawing was entertaining. Very similar to the NFL draft lottery.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:41 AM   #6
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

The 21st they are drawing the numbers....when will we find out if we drew a tag and how can you look that up on the new system?
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:04 AM   #7
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

ODFW drawing 101

Oregon is unique in that we use a "seed number" as the starting number for filling tags. Most states sort by points, then random numbers, then go "up" from zero trying to fill tags.

Oregon sorts by points and random numbers as well, but, goes up from the species "seed number", which eliminates any possibility of the random number generator giving preference to anyone, including but not limited to, first time Sheep applicants. The dept has 10 numbered ping pong balls that get spun around in a little wooden box and members of the public pick one ball at a time, creating a 10 digit number, starting with the left most digit. The draw computer will go "up" from this number, to 9,999,999,999 then loop around to 0 and continue up, so...... if you have the points to draw in the PP side, your number won't matter that much however, if you are on the cusp, say 100 max point apps and 75 tags in the PP side, you want a number in the 75 percentile. It's obviously not perfect but you can divide the number of apps into the total seed number possibilities and get a ratio of random numbers per app. If there are 500,000 possibles per app and you know your random number and the seed number, you can make a beer league guess as to whether the computer will hit your number before it fills all the tags. This is assuming an even spread of random numbers across the applicants. My 2018 Antelope random number was 8,734,875,258, and the Antelope seed number was 7,152,648,667. Knowing I "should" be in the max point pool for that hunt, and a good random number, I was sure I'd draw. Even if people jumped in, I should draw in the random side with that number. Turns out a bunch of apps moved in with more points and they only pulled a handful from my point pool but with that good number I drew.

You carry that random number to the random draw as well, so, if you just missed in the PP side, you will have an advantage of a good random number in the random side. If your random number is just under the seed number, you're pretty much hooped unless you have the points or the hunt is under subscribed.

Oregon also creates their application random numbers differently than most others. Oregon creates your app random number when you hit the "submit" button on your app, per species. Wyoming for example, sorts the app database by customer ID then assigns random numbers thru that sorted database.

Knowing how this process works, the oft mentioned "preference to first time Sheep applicants" is impossible, unless the draw computer scans the applicant history and determines he/she is a first time Sheep applicant, then knowing this, the computer jumps forward in time to the seed number party and watches Stonefly and QQ draw those seed numbers, then bounces back to real time and assigns a random number to that first timer just above that seed number, then, the computer would have to look at every subsequent app and assign a higher random number to ensure the first timer drew.

The reality is, ODFW could allow every applicant to choose their own random numbers, at any time during the app period, and until you can look into the future and watch them create those seed numbers, preference to anyone is impossible.

Last edited by WapitiBob; 05-15-2019 at 10:50 AM.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:01 PM   #8
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Where can you find your random numbers? I don't see any linked to any of my apps in my ODFW profile page.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:09 PM   #9
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

You have to contact the Dept and ask for them, after the seed number drawing has completed.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:23 PM   #10
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I’ll just wait and see what’s there when they release results


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Old 05-15-2019, 01:43 PM   #11
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I’ll just wait and see what’s there when they release results


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Old 05-15-2019, 07:45 PM   #12
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Neat stuff. When will the results be out....Oregon is last again for no good reason.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:00 PM   #13
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Neat stuff. When will the results be out....Oregon is last again for no good reason.
Idaho will be after Oregon.

Wyoming will be releasing results on June 20th, which is Oregon’s advertised “release by” date.

Would you say the same for those states, “no good reason”?
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Old 05-16-2019, 12:31 AM   #14
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by Stonefly1 View Post
Does anyone know the date/time of the seed number draw? I would like to attend this year.
has the process changed? Is this the new process or the one that has existed. I understand the new raffle process and I really think the new system is way more fair and I like that is is fair. It totally messed with my methods for buying raffle tickets, but at the end of the day a fair system is the best system. I will say having excelled at statistics, I partnered with a professor of statistics at the UofO in about 2002ish. I got all the data for the prior 6 years on apps, and who drew what, he and I studied it and we proved (never made public) that 1st time, even up to third time applicants, were more likely to draw sheep tags. I shared this with ODFW. I was never privy to the actual process in creating the numbers or the code at the time (I was told to sue for it). Since then I have near zero confidence in the true fairness of the draw system, not that someone can game it, but it's inherent bias towards certain groups, first time applicants. It sounds like things may have changed, i know now that the raffle system has really changed.
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Old 05-16-2019, 12:36 AM   #15
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.
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Old 05-16-2019, 06:14 AM   #16
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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has the process changed? Is this the new process or the one that has existed. I understand the new raffle process and I really think the new system is way more fair and I like that is is fair. It totally messed with my methods for buying raffle tickets, but at the end of the day a fair system is the best system. I will say having excelled at statistics, I partnered with a professor of statistics at the UofO in about 2002ish. I got all the data for the prior 6 years on apps, and who drew what, he and I studied it and we proved (never made public) that 1st time, even up to third time applicants, were more likely to draw sheep tags. I shared this with ODFW. I was never privy to the actual process in creating the numbers or the code at the time (I was told to sue for it). Since then I have near zero confidence in the true fairness of the draw system, not that someone can game it, but it's inherent bias towards certain groups, first time applicants. It sounds like things may have changed, i know now that the raffle system has really changed.
I have been following the public seed number draws for the last few years. I cannot say what the process was 10-15+ years ago.
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Old 05-16-2019, 06:16 AM   #17
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.
No, it’s based off the seed number and your randomly assigned number for each of the Hunt series.
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Old 05-16-2019, 08:45 AM   #18
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Idaho will be after Oregon.



Wyoming will be releasing results on June 20th, which is Oregon’s advertised “release by” date.



Would you say the same for those states, “no good reason”?


Absolutely. There is no good reason to be this late.


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Old 05-16-2019, 09:25 AM   #19
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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WapitiBob - So you are saying that your points still give you a positive advantage in the 25% pool? - If so it really is not a 25% pool. It is a 25% pool of people with points - it should be purely random.


No, it's random as it should be. I'm saying ODFW only gives you one random number per species so if it's a good one, you'll be in a good position in both the pp side and the random side. If your number sucks, you'll be one of the last to draw in the PP side and one of the last in the random side. Wyoming gives you a separate number for the PP side and random side to try and even out your "luck".

I haven't asked if/when the draw process changed, other than to ask how our customer id's were created originally, how they created new ones when we went away from ssn, and how they are currently created.

Last edited by WapitiBob; 05-16-2019 at 09:26 AM.
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:52 AM   #20
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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No, it’s based off the seed number and your randomly assigned number for each of the Hunt series.

Keep saying it; someday you won't have to anymore, but I'm not sure when that day might come
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:54 AM   #21
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Does anyone know the date/time of the seed number draw? I would like to attend this year.

It will be interesting to see what you think of the process; I'm betting part of it will be "Really? it's 2019!"
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:56 AM   #22
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Neat stuff. When will the results be out....Oregon is last again for no good reason.
With a June 1 change deadline, it certainly can't be earlier than that

If you would like the agency and its contractor to work 24/7 so that you can get your draw results earlier, find the ear of a legislator who agrees with you directing the commission to make those changes

Please make sure its General Fund dollars that will be paying the contractor a ridiculous amount of overtime so you can know one week earlier; I'm sure that will go over well in this state
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Old 05-16-2019, 10:40 AM   #23
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Here are the seed numbers from 2018:
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:22 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by loper View Post
It will be interesting to see what you think of the process; I'm betting part of it will be "Really? it's 2019!"
All of this is new to me.

And now (Thanks to you), all I can envision is Bingo night at the elks lodge with someone reaching into the basket and pulling out sheep tag winners!
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:29 AM   #25
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All of this is new to me.

And now (Thanks to you), all I can envision is Bingo night at the elks lodge with someone reaching into the basket and pulling out sheep tag winners!
That is not very far from the reality.

Except instead of pulling out winners, one is pulling out ping pong balls with a digit on them


And since there are 90 digits on the picture that Stonefly1 has provided, it gets to be done 90 times


I do know that I am in the youngest 25% of the demographic in attendance
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:33 AM   #26
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

That's either awesome or sad.

Mostly depends on if I draw or not.
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:48 PM   #27
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That little wooden box is simple and effective. I like it.
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Old 05-17-2019, 12:59 PM   #28
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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That little wooden box is simple and effective. I like it.
So that's the one thing ODFW has in their whole management of big game that's simple and effective? It's nice to know it's there. Doesn't seem they can't point to much else.
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Old 05-17-2019, 11:09 PM   #29
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Has anyone been able to get their seed numbers yet from odfw in preparation for the ping pong drawing?
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Old 05-18-2019, 06:17 AM   #30
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Has anyone been able to get their seed numbers yet from odfw in preparation for the ping pong drawing?
I always wait until after to ask. Then I spend the 3 weeks either feeling somewhat good about my position or building myself up for the fact I’m not going to get the tag.
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Old 05-18-2019, 06:21 AM   #31
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I emailed one year and got them. It kinda spoiled Christmas. I will be waiting for results to be posted.

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Old 05-18-2019, 08:33 AM   #32
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Where can you find your random numbers? I don't see any linked to any of my apps in my ODFW profile page.

I don't think you can, without a data request.
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Old 05-18-2019, 08:36 AM   #33
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I emailed one year and got them. It kinda spoiled Christmas. I will be waiting for results to be posted.

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Old 05-18-2019, 09:42 AM   #34
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Do these seed numbers, in any way, indicate if you will draw or not?
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Old 05-18-2019, 09:46 AM   #35
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Originally Posted by Mauser8MM View Post
Has anyone been able to get their seed numbers yet from odfw in preparation for the ping pong drawing?
The dept creates the seed numbers, you get random numbers.

No, you can not get your random numbers prior to the seed number public process.
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Old 05-18-2019, 09:49 AM   #36
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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I don't think you can, without a data request.
No "foia" request is needed. Joe public should be able to call and get them.
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Old 05-18-2019, 09:50 AM   #37
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Do these seed numbers, in any way, indicate if you will draw or not?
read post #7.

Not an exact science, or science at all, but in past years I've been able to tell on one of my apps and a cpl for friends. It's pretty obvious when you're at the btm of the pile or sitting right above the seed number for a species.

Last edited by WapitiBob; 05-18-2019 at 09:55 AM.
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Old 05-18-2019, 10:57 AM   #38
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No "foia" request is needed. Joe public should be able to call and get them.
Yup, just call or email and you can get your random number.
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Old 05-18-2019, 11:01 AM   #39
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

https://www.facebook.com/MyODFW/vide...5335099770890/
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Old 05-18-2019, 11:04 AM   #40
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

The process itself: Here is a step-by-step process of how the random computerized controlled hunt draw works:
  • Each application purchased is assigned a random 10-digit number.
  • Members of the public are invited to ODFW headquarters to randomly choose a 10-digit draw seed number for each hunt series. (Call 503-947-6108 to participate in the drawing.)
  • Applicants for each hunt are grouped by preference points and first choice hunt selected.
  • Tags are awarded in each preference point group beginning with the applicant whose 10-digit number matches, or is closest to and above, the seed number. The selection continues with the applicant having the next higher 10-digit number, until 75% of the tags have been awarded or until all first-choice applicants have received tags.
  • All remaining first-choice applicants are rearranged solely by 10-digit random number and the remaining 25% of tags are awarded randomly among all first-choice applicants for the hunt.
  • If there are tags left, the process restarts for second choice hunt applicants. (Preference points are not a factor for awarding 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th choices.)


https://dfw.state.or.us/news/2013/april/041013.asp
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Old 05-18-2019, 03:13 PM   #41
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With a June 1 change deadline, it certainly can't be earlier than that

If you would like the agency and its contractor to work 24/7 so that you can get your draw results earlier, find the ear of a legislator who agrees with you directing the commission to make those changes

Please make sure its General Fund dollars that will be paying the contractor a ridiculous amount of overtime so you can know one week earlier; I'm sure that will go over well in this state
And all this time I thought the computers did all the work, so our contractor is hand entering all this data?

If not, I would imagine a computer would grind out the draw results in short order.

Well, there is the black list entries to make.................
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Old 05-18-2019, 04:00 PM   #42
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And all this time I thought the computers did all the work, so our contractor is hand entering all this data?



If not, I would imagine a computer would grind out the draw results in short order.



Well, there is the black list entries to make.................

There are tests that are run to make sure the draw is statistically valid



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Old 05-18-2019, 08:32 PM   #43
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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There are tests that are run to make sure the draw is statistically valid



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Interesting, so that is an admission that it can be invalid..............
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Old 05-18-2019, 10:24 PM   #44
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Interesting, so that is an admission that it can be invalid..............
Did you hear about South Dakota a couple of years ago? They sent everyone a successful notice for their sheep drawing. Made for a few disappointed people.

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Old 05-19-2019, 01:27 PM   #45
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Interesting, so that is an admission that it can be invalid..............

Of course

And won’t be valid until a run is validated that it is valid

Hence the reason random draws are tested for statistical validation

The book “A Million Random Digits With 100,000 Normal Deviates” put out by the RAND Corporation at one time had a section that didn’t pass statistical validation and had to be replaced. 🤠

It’s just software for a controlled hunt drawing, not software to keep planes landing safely at PDX.



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Old 05-20-2019, 02:48 AM   #46
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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With a June 1 change deadline, it certainly can't be earlier than that

If you would like the agency and its contractor to work 24/7 so that you can get your draw results earlier, find the ear of a legislator who agrees with you directing the commission to make those changes

Please make sure its General Fund dollars that will be paying the contractor a ridiculous amount of overtime so you can know one week earlier; I'm sure that will go over well in this state

Really? - it is a a couple of finger strokes to run the program. If people are still working 7X24 someone needs to get **** canned. We run SAP data bases for the largest corporations in the country and this is not even like a single day of email. Heck our monitoring programs do more in a hour than this program does and we run them every 5 minutes.
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Old 05-20-2019, 03:03 AM   #47
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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There are tests that are run to make sure the draw is statistically valid



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A computer can't test if something is statistically valid, it can only give you a confidence level (assuming it was programmed correctly), which needs to be interpreted by a human with a background in statistics. The mere fact that it has to be tested is alarming to me.

"It’s just software for a controlled hunt drawing, not software to keep planes landing safely at PDX" No, it is software to determine if people get a hunt of their lifetime. It needs to be mathematically fair and correct and have exactly zero bias. This is very important to hunters, and the deflection it is not, is not heart warming.
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Old 05-20-2019, 06:20 AM   #48
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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There are tests that are run to make sure the draw is statistically valid



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I will say what I've said before... as a software engineer for more than two decades, this is either a false statement or ODFW and or their contractor are complete amateurs. Software testing is not done after the fact!!! There are many types of tests, unit testing, integration tests and so on... But all testing is done first to ensure the results, when they happen, are accurate. Seriously... can you imagine a financial institution saying "yeah go ahead and make that deposit or trade or whatever and we'll test it after the fact to make sure our financial data/results are correct"

It's one thing to try and give ODFW or their contractors a break, but not with BS. The entire draw could/should be done by computers in a matter of minutes. It's not complicated.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:09 AM   #49
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Really? - it is a a couple of finger strokes to run the program. If people are still working 7X24 someone needs to get **** canned. We run SAP data bases for the largest corporations in the country and this is not even like a single day of email. Heck our monitoring programs do more in a hour than this program does and we run them every 5 minutes.
Yeah, but you don't work for the government and you actually have incentive to do things right since you're working with your own money. ODFW is squandering ours and they'll just take more if they need it.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:46 AM   #50
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Really? - it is a a couple of finger strokes to run the program. If people are still working 7X24 someone needs to get **** canned. We run SAP data bases for the largest corporations in the country and this is not even like a single day of email. Heck our monitoring programs do more in a hour than this program does and we run them every 5 minutes.
They don't; but they might need to in order to get somebody's artificial deadline of June 3 to see their results instead of June 20

Reading comprehension helps.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:49 AM   #51
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Software testing is not done after the fact!!!.
Nobody said the software was being tested after the fact

But the draw results certainly will be
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Old 05-20-2019, 10:23 AM   #52
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Both WY and AZ run their draw on a subset of data, 500 for Wyoming, then verify those results by hand. I suspect OR does the same but a call to the Licensing Services mgr would get that question answered.

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Old 05-20-2019, 10:44 AM   #53
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Sure sounds complicated. I never figured Bingo ball selection had so much effort involved.
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Old 05-20-2019, 10:57 AM   #54
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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No, it is software to determine if people get a hunt of their lifetime.
In a few cases, that's true.

In the vast majority of cases, that is simply not the case.

What is true is that the drawing for the Alsea doe tag be as fair as the drawing for Umatilla No. 3; and the idea that doing the tests which indicate that statistical fairness to be true takes zero time is pretty much wishful thinking.
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Old 05-20-2019, 11:34 AM   #55
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Nobody said the software was being tested after the fact

But the draw results certainly will be
I'm always a little puzzled when people complain about getting the draw results by June 20th when the actually drawing takes place the 1st week of June? I guess this is a really bad 1st world problem. Looking forward to the 20th!
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Old 05-20-2019, 12:17 PM   #56
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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Nobody said the software was being tested after the fact

But the draw results certainly will be
The draw results are a product of the software. They are not separate. Software is far more accurate than humans if built correctly and tested correctly. You're missing the point and if there are in fact humans "testing" results, they are much more amateurs than I ever would guess. You build and test software so when the actions happen there is no doubt as to the accuracy of the results. If you have any reason to question the results after the fact, then you failed in creating and testing the software properly. These are very simple software principles. Going back to my point about financial software, if they released software that they had to question the results after the fact, they would be out of business!!!
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Old 05-20-2019, 01:23 PM   #57
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

I don't write software but have used it every day since 1982 and to assume it's being written and tested to the point all aspects work is a very big stretch.
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Old 05-20-2019, 01:27 PM   #58
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I don't write software but have used it every day since 1982 and to assume it's being written and tested to the point all aspects work is a very big stretch.
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Old 05-20-2019, 04:54 PM   #59
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

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The draw results are a product of the software. They are not separate. Software is far more accurate than humans if built correctly and tested correctly. You're missing the point and if there are in fact humans "testing" results, they are much more amateurs than I ever would guess. You build and test software so when the actions happen there is no doubt as to the accuracy of the results. If you have any reason to question the results after the fact, then you failed in creating and testing the software properly. These are very simple software principles. Going back to my point about financial software, if they released software that they had to question the results after the fact, they would be out of business!!!

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Old 05-20-2019, 05:03 PM   #60
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Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

How does Nevada have their draw this Wednesday and have the results two days later on Friday? Better system? Software? People?


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