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Old 05-16-2019, 05:14 AM   #16
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,451
Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

Originally Posted by BrianMaguire View Post
has the process changed? Is this the new process or the one that has existed. I understand the new raffle process and I really think the new system is way more fair and I like that is is fair. It totally messed with my methods for buying raffle tickets, but at the end of the day a fair system is the best system. I will say having excelled at statistics, I partnered with a professor of statistics at the UofO in about 2002ish. I got all the data for the prior 6 years on apps, and who drew what, he and I studied it and we proved (never made public) that 1st time, even up to third time applicants, were more likely to draw sheep tags. I shared this with ODFW. I was never privy to the actual process in creating the numbers or the code at the time (I was told to sue for it). Since then I have near zero confidence in the true fairness of the draw system, not that someone can game it, but it's inherent bias towards certain groups, first time applicants. It sounds like things may have changed, i know now that the raffle system has really changed.
I have been following the public seed number draws for the last few years. I cannot say what the process was 10-15+ years ago.
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