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Old 05-15-2019, 10:04 AM   #7
WapitiBob
Ifish Nate
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Bend, Orygun
Posts: 2,283
Default Re: 2019 ODFW Controlled Hunt Draw Seed Numbers

ODFW drawing 101

Oregon is unique in that we use a "seed number" as the starting number for filling tags. Most states sort by points, then random numbers, then go "up" from zero trying to fill tags.

Oregon sorts by points and random numbers as well, but, goes up from the species "seed number", which eliminates any possibility of the random number generator giving preference to anyone, including but not limited to, first time Sheep applicants. The dept has 10 numbered ping pong balls that get spun around in a little wooden box and members of the public pick one ball at a time, creating a 10 digit number, starting with the left most digit. The draw computer will go "up" from this number, to 9,999,999,999 then loop around to 0 and continue up, so...... if you have the points to draw in the PP side, your number won't matter that much however, if you are on the cusp, say 100 max point apps and 75 tags in the PP side, you want a number in the 75 percentile. It's obviously not perfect but you can divide the number of apps into the total seed number possibilities and get a ratio of random numbers per app. If there are 500,000 possibles per app and you know your random number and the seed number, you can make a beer league guess as to whether the computer will hit your number before it fills all the tags. This is assuming an even spread of random numbers across the applicants. My 2018 Antelope random number was 8,734,875,258, and the Antelope seed number was 7,152,648,667. Knowing I "should" be in the max point pool for that hunt, and a good random number, I was sure I'd draw. Even if people jumped in, I should draw in the random side with that number. Turns out a bunch of apps moved in with more points and they only pulled a handful from my point pool but with that good number I drew.

You carry that random number to the random draw as well, so, if you just missed in the PP side, you will have an advantage of a good random number in the random side. If your random number is just under the seed number, you're pretty much hooped unless you have the points or the hunt is under subscribed.

Oregon also creates their application random numbers differently than most others. Oregon creates your app random number when you hit the "submit" button on your app, per species. Wyoming for example, sorts the app database by customer ID then assigns random numbers thru that sorted database.

Knowing how this process works, the oft mentioned "preference to first time Sheep applicants" is impossible, unless the draw computer scans the applicant history and determines he/she is a first time Sheep applicant, then knowing this, the computer jumps forward in time to the seed number party and watches Stonefly and QQ draw those seed numbers, then bounces back to real time and assigns a random number to that first timer just above that seed number, then, the computer would have to look at every subsequent app and assign a higher random number to ensure the first timer drew.

The reality is, ODFW could allow every applicant to choose their own random numbers, at any time during the app period, and until you can look into the future and watch them create those seed numbers, preference to anyone is impossible.

Last edited by WapitiBob; 05-15-2019 at 10:50 AM.
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