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5K views 40 replies 28 participants last post by  JD77 
#1 ·
Portfolio went down over $16000 today. Not a fun day.:doh:
 
#9 · (Edited)
The inverted yield curve begs to differ. I have been saving more than I spend for quite some time waiting for this opportunity which may present it self sooner than later. :meme: panic at the disco. Im hoping to move it on up next-door to my buddy on the river who cashed in on the 2009 crash. Sure was a nice ride.
 
#4 ·
about 2 months ago i reduced my risk, especially in our sons 529, he starts college soon. some of this will recover, but all economic indicator at least traditional indicators show the chances of another recession is looming. add in the sky rocketing national debt, trade war with china, consumers bearing the brunt of the higher costs of chinese goods, and the market is going to get volatile. some of the value will come back, i suspect tomorrow may be off then friday some of the market will rebound. but tough roads ahead. we were hit hard today as well.
 
#5 ·
You didn’t lose money unless you sold after the drop.

This is just a repeat of what happened a few times over the past couple of years. Computers freak out and go on a sell spree. Then, the market comes roaring back. This is not a traditional economy, so traditional indicators don’t work.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s pretty easy to notice this trend. Stock market is a long term investment, or you have to be super lucky and need a crystal ball to make money.
 
#12 · (Edited)
Food for thought.

In the past 100 years, the DOW has been down 3% or more in 307 individual days.

While there are plenty of signs of recession, this is normal market behavior. We have become used to the unusually low volatility of recent years. It skews our perspective.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
#20 ·
If you're not in it for the long haul, probably shouldn't be in at all...unless you are much smarter than me. What's the "long haul" is the 24$ question, lol. Unless you think the talcum powder fiasco going to sting J&J, it's a pretty solid buy right now for long term dividend investors.....
And look at the dip earlier this year. We aint seen nuthin yet. I'd do a little buying if it does that again and the news isn't too gnarly. Blood in the streets and all that.
 
#22 ·
The inverted yield curve is a bit concerning, it is a decent, but still imperfect predictor of a future downturn in the economy. I think this time it is pretty much just a symptom of other troubles that we are seeing. Not that that makes it any better, it just isn't really telling us anything we shouldn't already know.

The trade war is being conducted in a capricious and ham-fisted way, not only creating more cost to a lot U.S. businesses, but a lot of uncertainty about the future. Even if it works out in the end, it is causing a lot of economic disruption that will last into the future. The Chinese economy is slowing down, almost certainly more than they are letting on. Europe is having problems, the final chapter for Brexit is coming up and the German GDP shank last quarter. The U.S. economy, while still appearing somewhat strong and resilient show some signs of slowing, exports have been dropping due to the previous mentioned issues, a strong dollar and cancellations of orders for Boeing's self-crashing airplanes. Domestic spending and demand seems to still be strong a the moment though. Obviously, from all this I think we are likely heading into a rough patch economically. However, since I don't think the U.S. is in as bad a position as some of the other major economies, I think our markets have a decent change of somewhat holding up as it will still look like a good place (relatively) to put money on the global markets.

Personally, I'm kind of on both sides of the stock market. Still got 10 to 15 years until retirement, so buying at lower prices isn't a bad thing there for me. But on the other side I am trying to convert some of my daughters college fund from the market into cash. Did some in the July highs after waiting for a bump after Mays dip, was going to more about now but not sure at the moment. I can probably do it reasonably anytime over the next year, so I trying to take some out on the highs and not the lows. Difficult to figure out with this volatility.
 
#23 ·
Inverted yield curve is only a prediction of a recession in the future. I think we already knew we are overdue. Historically after a inversion the recession is 15-24 months out. In the meantime, the last 5 inverted yield curves produced double digit returns before the market blew up. Good article on Market Watch discussing this. Good chance the upcoming presidential election or just before will be a potential trigger point. Some of the candidates tax and economic policy proposals could kill things very quickly.
 
#24 ·
Yes, elections have consequences. At then end of October 2016 the DOW stood at 18,142. At the end of November 2016, two weeks after the election, the DOW was 19,124. It's gone up a bit since then as well. Currently the DOW is only 2%ish off its all time high. Not time to wring hands quite yet.
 
#28 · (Edited)
Doesn't anyone remember the last bad resession and the policies that caused them? Remember the drastic measures taken to overt an all-out depression?

Credit was not given to the bipartisan efforts to avoid it. And yes there was bipartisan cooperation at first.
I couldn't disagree more. The policies put in place almost guaranteed the worst recession recovery in US history. Instead of taking our medicine, we chose to spread the pain over time. Our kids will still be paying for it.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
#26 ·
The last time we had an inverted yield curve like this we had the great recession of 08', to be fair we were due as aprox every 20 years a major crash occurs, only 11 years since the last crash, but since a bandaid was used last time, perhaps we are already due?
 
#27 ·
Never was the time coming to go hunting more appropriate. I could be depressed,as I have reached the age of mandatory withdrawals from my SEP IRA, but I am so focused on preparations for archery season that down 30+K has virtually zero impact on me. THAT IS WHY WE HUNT!!:meme:
 
#29 ·
All the market volatility is how the big trading houses make their money. Best for long haul investors to ignore it and stick to our age and risk tolerance allocation models. I still like J&J, and bought a little more a couple weeks ago.. Love dividend growth sticks when they are priced right. It may just sit in its current price range for awhile, but showed resilience over the last few days of dropsies. I bet is in 5-10 years the talcum fiasco will be long in the rear view mirror. That 3% yield is nice. Most of my market money is in low cost ETF's, but owning a few blue chip dividend achievers seems like a good way to go. A good blue chip dividend ETF like SCHD is worth a look during corrections.

JNJ

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JNJ?s=jnj

SCHD

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHD?s=schd
 
#30 ·
Mostly the market doesn't like uncertainty.

Pretty sure things are the most uncertain in the world right now that they've been in quite a while.

Support him or not....the current leader of the free world thrives on uncertainty and chaos....and has made, and lost, mucho money because of it.

Some people are going to massively increase their fortunes, most will not.

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