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Old 08-14-2019, 10:04 PM   #22
Root Hog or Die
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Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Land of Misfit Toys
Posts: 4,412
Default Re: Stock Market

The inverted yield curve is a bit concerning, it is a decent, but still imperfect predictor of a future downturn in the economy. I think this time it is pretty much just a symptom of other troubles that we are seeing. Not that that makes it any better, it just isn't really telling us anything we shouldn't already know.

The trade war is being conducted in a capricious and ham-fisted way, not only creating more cost to a lot U.S. businesses, but a lot of uncertainty about the future. Even if it works out in the end, it is causing a lot of economic disruption that will last into the future. The Chinese economy is slowing down, almost certainly more than they are letting on. Europe is having problems, the final chapter for Brexit is coming up and the German GDP shank last quarter. The U.S. economy, while still appearing somewhat strong and resilient show some signs of slowing, exports have been dropping due to the previous mentioned issues, a strong dollar and cancellations of orders for Boeing's self-crashing airplanes. Domestic spending and demand seems to still be strong a the moment though. Obviously, from all this I think we are likely heading into a rough patch economically. However, since I don't think the U.S. is in as bad a position as some of the other major economies, I think our markets have a decent change of somewhat holding up as it will still look like a good place (relatively) to put money on the global markets.

Personally, I'm kind of on both sides of the stock market. Still got 10 to 15 years until retirement, so buying at lower prices isn't a bad thing there for me. But on the other side I am trying to convert some of my daughters college fund from the market into cash. Did some in the July highs after waiting for a bump after Mays dip, was going to more about now but not sure at the moment. I can probably do it reasonably anytime over the next year, so I trying to take some out on the highs and not the lows. Difficult to figure out with this volatility.
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