Whats up with the numbers???

Jetsledder · 09-25-2005, 06:46 PM

The fish biologist predicted for 355,000 urbs over bonneville. But they downsized the run forecast to 290,000 and closed the columbia to sportsmen and let the gill netters have a swing at it. I just checked the fish counts and they are reading 325,000 as of yesterday over bonneville. In my opinion the fish biologists have alot of explaining to do to the sportsman as to why they lied about the run forecast just so the gill netters could go in. I know I havent been doing my part in the compact meetings but my new years resolution is I will start attending the compact meetings.

fish-on · 09-25-2005, 06:50 PM

mark , they NEVER have a clue on whats going on , b/c they have a bunch of college kinds that dont know anything about this, they dont use science to predict or count numbers just formulas, plus they are pro gillnetter, so that has a lot to do with it and as long as we keep giving them money for licsense they are gonna do what they are doing , we as sportsmen NEED to boycott them and make a point , the meetings are a waste of time in my opinion

Gundog · 09-25-2005, 07:27 PM

I have been wondering the same things here are some numbers I came up with. The first day in August they counted over 1000 fish a day was August 20th from that day through 8/31 there were 37207 fish then when you add that to the fish total so far this month 325311 + 37207 = 362518. What numbers are fish and game using can anyone tell me. Are they only counting the Sep fish numbers? Do the fish use a calander out in the ocean to decide when to come into the river systems or do you think maybe they use water temps?

I read these numbers they post but the numbers never seem to equal the fish counting numbers at the dam. I realize if we would have kept fishing the numbers would be less but it sure seams like more than 290K fish to me so why is the season not re-opened? I don't know the answers to these questions does anyone else on here have some insight? It seems we have some very well informed people on here maybe someone can answer these questions.
Mike

fish-on · 09-25-2005, 08:10 PM

its not re- open so we dont conflict with the STUPID gillnetters

Sablefish · 09-25-2005, 08:55 PM

All the Chinook that go over the dam are not URB's. I'm not sure what the % is but there are alot of Bonneville Pool fish that are not considered URB's. Check out the Columbia River Compact site and look at the technical reports.
If you aren't real confused after that let me know and I can direct you to more WDFW mumbo jumbo that will confuse you, gauranteed!!!

Fshklr · 09-26-2005, 04:44 AM

Hey Mark
not sure where the #'s are your looking at but it hit 325,000 more than a week ago...according to the #'s I've been watching :depressed:

this am 5:25 it is sitting at 369,286 over Bonneville Fall Chinook Salmon...nets continue to be in...Fish continue to go over the dams...
as of 9/18/05 thru 9/24/05 the total # of Chinook over Bonne is 42,849

and then if you added Gillnet numbers..the hole thing is smoke and mirrors by the powers that be.

From the WDFW NEWS RELEASE SITE 9/14/05

Quote..
"Tim Flint, WDFW salmon manager, said fishery managers in Washington and Oregon agreed to end chinook retention in the lower Columbia after reducing their estimate of returning �upriver bright� chinook from 354,600 fish to 280,000 fish.
The counts had exceeded these #'s 5 days before the closure and average daily count still held at 18,000 a day!

�Anglers have been catching chinook at a faster pace than anticipated, while expectations have declined for the return of upriver brights,� Flint said.
So...why did the river remain open at all?? why would they allow gillnetting if continued harvest would endanger the URB's

Flint noted that the upriver bright run includes salmon bound for the Snake River that are listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act.
WDFW How can you possibly make this statement as an explanation and then immediately open the mainstem Columbia to Gillnetting Harvest of the very same fish you closed the river for!!!

It's Time For A Change, And That Time Is NOW!

Ethical hunter · 09-26-2005, 05:58 AM

Its simple. All the chinook going over Bonniville are not URBs'.

HB

wwjetboater · 09-26-2005, 06:09 AM

I just have 1 word to say about the gill netters and ODFW "ENGLUND". This is what you get when you have a person on the board who's famely's $ comes from comershal fishing.

Pete · 09-26-2005, 06:12 AM

It is frustrating that the run is being managed by "number of URBs over Bonneville", yet the number that decisions are being based on isn't officially collected and isn't published. It seems to me that everyone would be better off is the process and the management tools were a little more transparent. Managing with secret numbers just doesn't seem like how our public employees should be serving us and our states.

Lured In · 09-26-2005, 06:33 AM

The percentage of URB's in the run is in the TAC Fact Sheets. As I recall the last one was somewhere around 70% of the run was URB's. That being the case, knock 30% off the passage at Bonnie and you have your URB passage.

I agree with Pete, though, a bit more transparency would be nice.

drano100 · 09-26-2005, 06:46 AM

Quote:

The percentage of URB's in the run is in the TAC Fact Sheets. As I recall the last one was somewhere around 70% of the run was URB's. That being the case, knock 30% off the passage at Bonnie and you have your URB passage.

I agree with Pete, though, a bit more transparency would be
nice.

so again we sportsman take it in the shorts with their fuzzy math, my understanding is they don't count URB at bonni, and if thats the case no one really has a real solid # of these fish over the dam, we will just use the same percentage as in the past and hope nothing has changed in the last 20 years

I have lots of places to fish above the dam so it does not stop me from still getting these fish. It would just seem that with so much change in the ocean that they might want to get some real updated info and # to make their predictions.

maddad · 09-26-2005, 07:15 PM

they also claim there were 40 thousand chinook caught in one month cross the astoria bar by spoties alone, call it fuzzy math i call it B.S

fish-on · 09-26-2005, 07:28 PM

that ia a bunch of B.S to say that us sporties caught 40 k nooks with a one fish limit

blacktail519 · 09-26-2005, 08:49 PM

Quote:

as long as we keep giving them money for licsense they are gonna do what they are doing , we as sportsmen NEED to boycott them and make a point , the meetings are a waste of time in my opinion

The meetings are a waste of time?? Are you kidding me? The less that show up and speak their mind, the less we get. You are way wrong my friend. I would like to think you are kidding. If we all had your attitude, no one would be there, and we would have less then we allready have. You need to re-think, and change your train of thought, or just quit fishing

maddad · 09-26-2005, 09:04 PM

not true they give you the bare minimun NOW with for full price, what else can they take, close fishing all together? yea right the REVENUE is the only reson your aloud to fish at all now, if no one goes fishing it kind of hard to inforce the b.s regs wich create/GARANTEE allready spent REVENUE. sorry but thats the truth

FisherJack · 09-26-2005, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Managing with secret numbers just doesn't seem like how our public employees should be serving us and our states.

Right on, Pete. Wouldn't it be nice if there were a little light shone on the numbers and the analysis.

Jack

Gundog · 09-26-2005, 09:34 PM

Thanks Pete and the others for the response it helps to know that they are not counting all the fish over the dam. It does not make me feel any better about the situation but I do understand more than I did before.
Mike

sparkleboy · 09-26-2005, 10:26 PM

Quote:

mark , they NEVER have a clue on whats going on , b/c they have a bunch of college kinds that dont know anything about this, they dont use science to predict or count numbers just formulas...

College 'kinds,' eh?
Welp, I have to say, I am a college kid in fisheries. In every, single, one of my fishery classes, we have used hard science to simulate fish & wildlife population models. Models, is the key word. A model is almost never correct. Models that predict chinook returns to a river must account hundreds of factors. If that model does not take into consideration even a single factor, run predictions can be off by serveral hundreds of thousands of fish. Also, with poor ocean conditions, including a lack of upwelling in the past two years, fish populations have noticable suffered. This is something models didn't change and account for. Science, especially fishery science, is extremely complicated. It's the same with everyone of your opinion - you want more fish and better runs, and you want all of this done with less money, less resources, and less biologists. That's fine, but it will never happen.
I'd just like to ask what your career is? When was the last time you accurately predicted something related to your career? Or is that too complicated for your job description?
"Plus they are pro gillnetter."
Welp buddy, I have to say, that's about a 180 degree turn from my personal views, so, you're wrong again. But you can keep telling yourself that all Pacific Northwest fish biologists are pro-gillnetters, if it makes you feel better. But, I haven't met one yet, so if you know of one, point me in their direction so I can have a chat with them.
Anyway, have a good one, and get out on the river, maybe it will clear your mind of the propaganda you've created.