Anyone have Percentage Tags book?

Killertraylor · 04-14-2003, 10:03 AM

I was hoping that someone with the above book could help me out and tell me what the chances are of drawing the east Whitehorse controlled buck tag with 1 preference point (Hunt # 168B) I went to GI Joes to buy the book but they were out. Thank you!

Joe

Bounty Hunter · 04-14-2003, 12:20 PM

I took BOE's advice and called ODFW. They sent me the data for free within 5 days. If I had it in front of me I'd look it up, but let me know if you still need it later this week and I will dig them out.

Killertraylor · 04-14-2003, 12:30 PM

Kevin - if you'd check at home for me and post the answer here I'd sure appreciate it. I'll call ODFW too and get the info. to give to the rest of my party. Thanks to both of you!

Radke · 04-14-2003, 12:40 PM

The document ODFW has available is a fascinating collection of data. It tells you how many people with 1 point, 2 points on up to 8 points applied for the hunt, and within each point grouping, how many tags were awarded. The one problem I have found with the document is when hunt numbers change from one year to the next. What happened to me was I looked up an elk hunt in South Starkey, it looked like hardly anyone had applied. What had happened is that the number for S. Starkey (252D2 in 2002) was the number used for North Powder in 2001, and it was the N Powder hunt very few people had applied for.

Radke · 04-14-2003, 05:19 PM

In 2002. 264 people with 1 point applied, 82 got tags. 117 people with 2 points applied, 94 got tags. 24 with 3 points applied, 12 got tags. 6 with 4 points applied, 6 got tags. I can only assume those with more than 1 point who applied and didn't get tags had an error on their application, at least that's what odfw explained. This info comes out of the ODFW report POINTSUMRPT. Same hunt, year 2001. 277 applied with 1 point, 138 got tags. 61 with 2 points, 43 got tags. 12 with 3 points, all got tags.

Joe · 04-14-2003, 06:18 PM

The book says that with 1 point you have a 60% chance. With 2 points 100%.

Killertraylor · 04-14-2003, 06:34 PM

Thanks, guys. That's interesting that so many people must have made errors on their applications! I ordered the ODFW summary and Wak is going to let me borrow his book so I can check my other hunts too. Thanks again!

pdxkevin · 04-14-2003, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Killertraylor:
I was hoping that someone with the above book could help me out and tell me what the chances are of drawing the east Whitehorse controlled buck tag with 1 preference point (Hunt # 168B) I went to GI Joes to buy the book but they were out. Thank you!

Joe

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">I can check at home on that hunt for you. I finally tracked down a 2003 Tag Guide at the Delta Park GI Joes.

Radke · 04-15-2003, 06:03 AM

ODFW put out quite a few documents that explain the controlled hunt process, how to increase your odds, and what are the main reasons a person fails to draw. Increasing your odds is a common sense thing, apply for a hunt that is in low demand (duh). But two of the key reasons you might not get your tag relate to party applications. If four people apply, two have two points, two have one, I think it rounds to a whole point, and may round down. I'm not sure however. The other reason again in party related, if you apply with a non resident in the group, and the hunt has already awarded all tags allocated to non residents, the entire party loses out.

pdxkevin · 04-15-2003, 07:11 AM

Here is what the 2003 book says for Buck Deer in Southeast Area Hunts: Hunt Unit 168B:

East Whitehorse
Public land.....80%
.
Pref Points 0....16%
Pref Points 1....60%
Pref Points 2...100%
Pref Points 3...100%
Pref Points 4+..100%
.
Dates O04-O15
Visible Antler
.
Harvest Success '99-'00 61%
4 point plus 39%
.
I love these books. I have bought one every year since I found out about them. I like to check them all each year to see if I can find trends worth pursuing.

[ 04-15-2003, 08:13 AM: Message edited by: pdxkevin ]

Killertraylor · 04-15-2003, 11:41 PM

Radke - you are right. In the regulations it says that they add up all of the preference points for the group and then divide by the number of party members. They round down to the next lower point if it's .50 or below and round up if it's .51 or above. For example, on my hunt, I have 3 friends with 1 point and I have 0 since I drew last year. If we put in as a party of 4, they add up the points (3) and divide by number in party (4) and get .75 - and then round up to 1 point so it doesn't hurt the group for me to join the party application. If they each had 2 points, it would hurt the group for me to join with 0 since 6 divided by 4 is 1.5 which means they round down to 1 point and if I didn't join the party application they'd have 2 points. Somewhat complicated, but definitely worth knowing before you apply. They also decide to allocate a certain percentage of tags for each hunt to non-residents and it would kill the party application if they had a non-resident once the non-resident quota is met.