Don't Worry - Fish Are Just 11 Days Late Read On

[SKP]

The Columbia has been running 5 degrees colder than last year, causing the fish to be 11 days late. Let's compare 2004 runs with 2005 runs eleven days apart:

Bonneville Salmon Run Comparison

2005 Daily Counts: 2004 Daily Counts:

4/11/05 - 23 -------- 3/31/04 - 57
4/12/05 - 57 -------- 4/01/04 - 57
4/13/05 - 51 -------- 4/02/04 - 75
4/14/05 - 122-------- 4/03/04 - 88
4/15/05 - 94 -------- 4/04/04 - 273
4/16/05 - 398-------- 4/05/04 - 391
4/17/05 - 210-------- 4/06/04 - 235
4/18/05 - 470-------- 4/07/04 - 341
4/19/05 - 508-------- 4/08/04 - 468
4/20/05 - 964-------- 4/09/04 - 710
4/21/05 - 1346------- 4/10/04 - 1202
4/22/05 - 2230------- 4/11/04 - 684
4/23/05 - 1374------- 4/12/04 - 1196
4/24/05 - 3656------- 4/13/05 - 4767
4/25/05 - 4149------- 4/14/04 - 3035
4/26/05 - 4092------- 4/15/04 - 3099
4/27/05 - 3882------- 4/16/04 - 4304
4/28/05 - 2577------- 4/17/04 - 4667
4/29/05 - 3681------- 4/18/04 - 9488
4/30/05 - 3231------- 4/19/04 - 8263
5/01/05 - 2180------- 4/20/04 - 12656
5/02/05 - 1850------- 4/21/04 - 6208
5/03/05 - 2142------- 4/22/04 - 13030
5/04/05 - 2542------- 4/23/04 - 8869
5/05/05 - 6065------- 4/24/04 - 3366

Period
Totals 47894 --------------- 87529

I'll keep a running summary, and see if this theory holds up as we progress through the season. I think the fish are simply 11 days late because of the colder water and spring conditions that occured in the lower river, stalling the fish. Bingo, bango, bongo, the temps warm up, the fish move. The fish are here.

Cold = Hold
Warm = Swarm

SKP

[Hogmaster]

I hope you're right.



Not to hijack the thread...

But I wonder another thing, too.

Not only where the fish are, but why the ones being caught by both man and beast are so SMALL?

The purported run of 5 year olds seem to have not shown much at all, and my (personal, not scientific) observation is that the fish being yarded up this year seem to me to be significantly smaller than past years.

Most fish I've seen in pics here, or out on the river, seem to be running around 10-14 pounds.

For years and years, I remember the average 4 year old springers running more like 14 - 18 pounds.

Am I alone here in this observation?

I bring this up because I wonder if ocean conditions changed significantly in the last year, leading to less feed, which might explain why the fish are both fewer and smaller. It might explain why the jacks returning last year indicated more fish should be here than there are up to now. If conditions changed in the last year, it could explain both a lack of size and quantity.

I hope your theory is right as to my wonderment...

[rola76]

I have the exact same theory SKP...it'll be interesting to follow your records!! Thanks. :grin:

[Salmon Stryker]

I'm subscribing to SKP's theory as well. Sorta seems obvious... and I'm still hopeful that maybe they will open the CR back up in May.

I have also noticed that the fish do seem to be a bit smaller this year....the few that I have seen anyway.

[weekender]

You four need to pack your bags and head over to the "Better start to panic" thread...

[tadpoly]

Just another observation to add to SKP's great theory.

Fished at Cathlamet Wednesday.. water temp (river) was 48-49 degrees.

Crabbed at Hammond Thursday.. water temp (ocean) was 51-52 degrees (at high tide).

[elk003]

Well, if they don't start showing heavy by Sunday, I will have to cancell next weekend at Drano. Was planning a 4 dayer there, but will have to switch to Priest Lake in Idaho for some Large Lakers. Either way, will be a win win for me, but I will be disappointed to miss out on the Springers. ELK

[FlyingAce]

This is 2005, maybe they just got a personal trainer and started swimming more laps. Just a thought. :smile:

[Diehard]

My comments from an earlier post:

"The return will not be what was predicted , but it will still exceed the ten year average. However, I just think they are late.
April 10, 2004 was the first 1000 count day at the dam. April 20, 2005... 964 crossed, see what I mean. It's all about water temp. It's been my experience that the fishing doesn't really turn on until the surface temp is 52 - 54 degrees.
I have not seen the temp higher than 48 in the areas that I've fished this year. I'm no biologist (I don't even play one on TV ) it's just my theory and I'm stickin to it."

[steelbiten]

You four need to pack your bags and head over to the "Better start to panic" thread...

Perfect application of Humor!

[txaggie]

Amen! :grin:

[black duck]

Yessir SKP! Remember the model predicts run size, not passage rates. Stay hopeful and think several 10,000 fish days come the first week of May.

[BackBouncerRich]

Can you post the temps as well? I like your thinking, but until I see them reopen I'm headed up for Kokanee.

[Time Off]

Most fish I've seen in pics here, or out on the river, seem to be running around 10-14 pounds.

For years and years, I remember the average 4 year old springers running more like 14 - 18 pounds.

Am I alone here in this observation?

I

I think I read the results from the commercial netters showed the average Chinook was just over 19 pounds this year. I was short on the catching this year but I witnessed a few over 20lb springers.

[Something Good]

We did manage 1 over 20lbs but the rest were all under 15. All being the other 4, slow fishing this year.

[Gun Rod Bow]

Most were small Hoggy, in both rivers.

Here's an interesting bit. 2 buddies got fish in March that both had chips in their heads on the same day in the Columbia, above the Willy.

#1 was 13# and was a 5 year old from the Wenatchee River.

#2 was 25# and was a 4 year old from Idaho.



I saw some 20# class fish on the Columbia, but very darn few. Most were cookie cutter 10-14 lbers. One friend got a 31# toad.

3 yrs ago we had lots of fish in the 20s. I netted one that was 30 that year.

Seems to me alot of the fish I've seen have been small and also skinny. Not the footballs I've noticed previously.

Some of the March Willy fish I saw were pale, even for Willy fish and had that brown streak along the bone by the tail that Tules get. They tasted fine, just didn't look great.

Salmon are weird.

As far as holding out hope for the Columbia run...you guys are dreamin. If it tops 100,000 fish, I'll buy you a beer.

Willy should be smokin right now. I'm not ready to throw in the towel there yet, but in 2 weeks if nothing has changed...then I will.

[SKP]

Updated April 25, 2005. The late run/cold temperature theory is still holding. I'll make another update in a few days.

SKP

[Sourdough]

As for the theory about temperature effect on the run, see

Bonneville Water Temperature

Pretty telling story. Just as the temperature starts to nose up to the 10 year average temperature, the fish start to show up. Imagine that!

[West Linn Wader]

Which is the actual current temperature (blue, red, green?)

[dogfishboy]

Not to blow a hole in the "theory", SKP, but the numbers for '97, '98, 2000, and '01 show fish moving over at a 1000 + a day when the water temp was only 7.0-8.0c. CR DART scroll to the right for temps. Temp records only go back to the mid '90s there.

[Digifish]

SWARM, SWARM, SWARM!!!!



Isn't that a line from some movie?

[Salmon Stryker]

GRB- I'll take one of those Mike's Hard Limeades as I'm not much of a beer guy.

Do you see your glass of beer half empty or half full?

[Negotiator]

The Mt. St. Helens eruption tainted the smell of the water. However, within the next two weeks the ash will have dissipated and the springers will rush to their date with destiny.

[wetaline]

My last day on the columbia was tuesday (day before the closure) up at bonni and our fish and the fish we saw caught that day were all piggish..... and we commented on it several times that day how the fish all seemed to be good sized.

a couple weeks earlier we let a big nate go - in water guestimate at 27ish...

So personally I havn't noticed smaller fish - i've heard it mentioned by some other friends - but personally i didn't notice a difference in size this year.

And I think the counts will continue to grow - ending up w/ a pretty decent run for the year. just wish i was still out there bonkin em in the lips w/ eggs below bonni.

[Riddler]

THANK YOU OR THE GREAT POST!!! IHAVE BEEN GETTING TIRED OF THE GLOOM AND DOOM OF SOME PEOPLE. I AGREE WITH YOUR COMPARISON AND THAT THERE IS A CORALATION WITH WATER TEMP. THANKS FOR YOUR POST

[SKP]

Updated April 26, 2005.

So far so good.

SKP

[CATCH AND EAT]

So will Catch And Eat's prediction hold true? Will 10,000 fish be heading over Bonniville by Friday? Will crow be served to all those that think this run is still coming?

Stay tuned. Same Bat Channel. Same Bat Time. Same old count? Only Robin really knows.

Somebody tell the dang fish it is time to show up!

[fish nemesis]

I dont know if it has been said on here already but when are they going to review the run?

[coffee-n-rolls]

What's Guidegirl's opinion?

[kodiakfisher]

Be careful to not make the mistake of thinking that correlation means causation. I don't disagree with the water temp theory but I suspect this is not the sole answer to the late run. Do these fish get to the mouth of the Columbia river and then decide we are NOT going up that rive too cold.

The Indians on the Kalamath River would set up fish traps and they always seemed to know when the fish where going to show up many miles upriver. The Kalamath Indians had to travel great distances to harvest fish from the river, understanding when the fish would show up was important. The Kalamath indians would only pack enough for a short stay at the river. They did not have the benefit of checking water temp but they always arrived to the river when the fish would show up. The Astoria Indians also always seemed to know just when the fish would show up. Again I don't think they had methods to detect 4 degree changes in water temp. How did they know when the fish where going to show up? How did they account for unpredictable water temps? Did they, or do they know something we don't know? Something to think about while the rest of the salmon do what they have been trying to do for thousands of years, and still do today despite the dams.

I have spent many years in Alaska fishing as a kid and Adult and have witnessed 2-2.5 week changes in peak run times and the river temps are fairly consistant year to year.

Kodiakfisher

[timinthegorge]

Good post Kodiakfisher!

Does anyone believe they'll open the river above Bonnie if the numbers continue to improve?

Just wonderin'..... My guess is, no way. I'm hoping I'm wrong. :whazzup:

[Luke the Drifter]

The Indians didn't need any kind of monitoring equipment, there were so many fish back then they didn't have to worry about getting there "on time."

[pearl]

So will Catch And Eat's prediction hold true? Will 10,000 fish be heading over Bonniville by Friday? Will crow be served to all those that think this run is still coming?

Bernie,

I'm with you. I hope were both right.

My thinking goes like this and I'm not a biologist or a scientist.

Anyway, I have gone through my personal fishing logs for all the types of fishing I do which is mostly in the coastal bays, Columbia and Willamette. This includes coastal river steelhead.

The one common thread I see over the last six years in my personal catch, is that the highest point of fish landed has been pushed back by and average on fifiteen days over that six year period. It pushes back an avgerage of 3 days a year. Is it tides, water temp, flow, clear water /dirty water, I'm not sure but the timing of the runs seems to be getting later. Our four seasons don't seem to fall as they once did

Just something to think about. Twice a year we set our clocks forward or back to adjust the time. Could it be the world is spinning a little bit faster on it's axis then we as humans really know about. Maybe the fish come at the same time every year but our calenders and clocks don't match that of Mother Nature. Could it be there is really not 24 hours in a day. 7 days in the week, 4 weeks in the month, 12 months in a year, 10 years in a decade When I'm 95 years of age will it be 32 degrees in August?

This is really outside of normal thinking for a redneck like me but just maybe. Maybe the salmon and steelhead know when to come and our calenders are screwed up?

Man ! I hurt my brain with this post But just maybe

[SandySteel]

SWARM, SWARM, SWARM!!!!



Isn't that a line from some movie?

That's a Seinfeld reference. Jerry is ratting out George for shoplifting a book so that he can get rid of the same book that he can't return because he read it while sitting on the toilet.

I miss that show.
"Hey George.... the Columbia river called, they're all out of salmon!"

Jerkstore!

:lurk:

[Bounty Hunter]

4092 for 4/26/05.

The theory is still holding, but I would think we should get a spike soon. Especially if the lions are out of the ladder.

[B-RUN STEELIE]

Your right, its holding- with less than half the fish- In summery the fish are 10 days or so late and there are half as many as they thought, and less than that if it does not show a dramatic climb in the next 4 days or so. There will be less than 100,000.. maybe way less.

[Bounty Hunter]

Well, now that I think about it, the 2004 run had the huge spike in 6 days 4/18 through 4/23: 58,500 fish. So if the 2005 run is 11 days late, we could catch up real quick with a spike like that starting this Friday through next Thursday.

I'm still optimistic... :lurk:

[Reel_Big_Fish]

That's a Seinfeld reference. Jerry is ratting out George for shoplifting a book so that he can get rid of the same book that he can't return because he read it while sitting on the toilet.

I miss that show.
"Hey George.... the Columbia river called, they're all out of salmon!"

Jerkstore!

:lurk:

You're right that it is a Seinfeld reference, but it isn't related to George. It was in the bookstore also. However it was when Jerry was trying to teach his Uncle Leo that it was wrong to steal.

I miss Seinfeld also...although I try and catch it on TV as much as I can.

[On a mission]

"Man ! I hurt my brain with this post " Now thats funny. Hope things are going well for you. Fished Friday no fish.

[Luke the Drifter]

You're right that it is a Seinfeld reference, but it isn't related to George. It was in the bookstore also. However it was when Jerry was trying to teach his Uncle Leo that it was wrong to steal.

Actually it was related to George because at the end of the show George was trying to steal a book to return later because the book store made him pay for another book he took into the bathroom then he couldn't return it.

[Digifish]

Luke,
I remember now.....it is from Seinfeld...

but i think it is from the episode where Jerry is trying to scare Uncle Leo........Uncle Leo has a shoplifting problem and Jerry askes the book store security guard to catch him in the act and just give him a little scare.....

but the security gard calls in back-up on his radio...." SWARM, SWARM, SWARM!"

Right?

[SKP]

Updated April 28, 2005

SKP

[Reel_Big_Fish]

Digifish hit the nail on the head.

But enough of that...this post is about the fish that are 11 days late

[Killertraylor]

SKP, I looked at last years daily numbers from 11 days back and I think you need some 10,000+ fish days in a row for your theory to hold true....I'll say a prayer, but it's not looking good if we don't get more than 10K a day over in the next day or two. Here's last years numbers to compare the "11 days late theory to:


2004-------------------2005
April 17----4667 ....April 28----2577
April 18----9488 ....April 29----????
April 19----8263 ....April 30----????
April 20----12,656 ....May 1 ----?????
April 21----6208 ....May 2 ----?????
April 22----13,030 ....May 3 ----?????
April 23----8869 ....May 4 ----?????

[Hogmaster]

:lurk: :lurk: :lurk:

Is the theory true?

Will C&E be right about tomorrow?

Will GRB be buying brewskies?

Will anyone bring up "shrinkage" next?

:grin:

[dogfishboy]

I'm just glad they are showing up in the numbers they are, and the numbers don't look like the mid '90s. I was worried the numbers might look like '95.

[Salmon Stryker]

I WAS IN THE POOL!!! :grin:

LIKE A FRIGHTENED TURTLE!!!

[Hogmaster]

After all, the water IS colder!

Goes a long way to explain the smaller size, eh?

SHRINKAGE!!!!


:grin: :grin:

[West Linn Wader]

*I* think that *you* think that a certain *something* is not all that it could be, when in fact it is is all that it *should* be, and *more*!

You Seinfeld lovers...check this out.

[Reel_Big_Fish]

Right on West Linn Wader! That is a pretty cool site.

To put the quote to rest...it was the Bookstore episode and the security guard says it twice. The first being when Jerry points out his Uncle Leo and then it happens at the very end with George.

So everyone is right

RBF

[5-Cents]

[Hogmaster]

Hmmmm....



Without a major fish adjustment, C&E's expectation is not looking so good.

GRB will be saving his Cerveza budget.

And SHRINKAGE is not the plausible explanation. Can't shrink what isn't there...

[Killertraylor]

Only 2577 yesterday - I think the 11 days late theory was just wishful thinking :depressed:

[Salmon Stryker]

Okay, I'm getting ready to concede that I MAY have been too hopeful. Maybe....

[TheRogue]

I'll wait and see what the counts do after this big water flush...then I'll write it off in my mind, but not before.

TR

[dogfishboy]

I'm almost there too,SS. Now I'm startin' to worry 'bout next year

[eyeFISH]

In the famous words of STGRule:

"We have milk-toast now."

[CATCH AND EAT]

Okay I predicted 10,000 fish by today and it has not happened yet. My crystal ball has now been given the heave ho and I now digress back to my arm chair biologist status. I still have hope but next week will tell.

[Jaeger]

dont give up hope just yet, if you look at this chart, click here then click the submit button , there seems to historically be a medium size push similar to the last week with a small trough before jumping for the really large numbers within the next 10 days or so.

Just a little optimism.


Jason

[SKP]

Updated April 30.

HMMMMM.....

SKP