Run numbers over Bonny?

[cheeseburger]

I heared on 1190AM radio this morning they said that the numbers of chinook salmon over bonneville dam for this time of year is the lowest in fifty years. I think they said like 49 so far. The average is over 6 thousand. Could be the water conditions the last few months, but i think it also has alot to do with the number of seals at the dam. Over the last 50 years, there have never been that many seals up there either. Just thought i would pass this along.

[fish-on]

either that they wayyyy over estimated the run size which is likely b/c we do have the water now or the seals or the makah tribe in WA which took lots of our fish. The willy doesnt even have fish this year.

[Tacklebuster]

It's way early yet. The water temps have been to cold and the conditions have been less than favorable. Give it a couple of weeks and just watch what happens Let's just hope and pray they don't shut it down like they did the one year just to have the chinook spill over the ladder as soon as the river was shut down

[Rimshot]

Yup. It's all about the temps guys. Look at some past temp charts compared to run numbers and you will see it for yourself. It paints a very clear picture. Especially in the Willy. 50 degrees is like a light switch. The numbers skyrocket within 1-2 days of the river hitting 50 degrees. Now if either river hits 50 and you still see the pathetic numbers you see now by all means PANIC. Until then sit back, sharpen your hooks, and watch the temps. They WILL come.

[Mark2000]

keep your fingers crossed

[clearjb]

I don't have enough fingers to cross. there are alot of uncomfortable fishirman in Idaho. It doesn't take much over here to get the run shut down before it even starts

[B-RUN STEELIE]

You got that right... We are wondering if our fish are comming or not.. Temp whatever- something is really wrong.. I think the run size has been way over estimated... if its don't change in like the next few days.. you guys won't be fishing long this year.

[Mojo]

I heard on another board (from a credible source) that a "random sampling" of the fish from the Makah winter troll fishery showed somwhere in the 90% + for Idaho bound fish. If the projected upriver run this year was estimated to be around 73,000 springers, and they Makah took 40,000 fish in their winter troll fishery, 90% of which were upriver fish, it means no fishery in Idaho.

That's why I'm nervous.

[steelies_R_US]

I talked to the fish and game head guy for our district here in yakima about the Makah fishery. I asked him if that had anything to do with the springers being low. He said no way. Apparently of the fish they sampled that some were Idaho fish but they were Fall fish not springers. I thought that was some sort of good news. Just thought it might interest the Idaho folks

[B-RUN STEELIE]

If thats true it really sucks because our fall fish are ESA listed.. and hurtin.. I would think they were springers.. whole deal sucks.

[steelies_R_US]

Yeah he said that there were some ESA protected Idaho fall fish in the Makah harvest

[Dragfreedrift]

you have to remember that when we look at 10-yr. averages...we are looking at warm water years, cold water years, high water and low water....

The bottom line is that things are looking very dire for this years run....we should be way ahead of where we are now.

:whazzup:


DFD

[Norseman]

Yeah...Stupid salmon. Someone go tell those springers out in the ocean that they are late and to hurry up as we are waiting for them.

[steelies_R_US]

Yeah but keep in mind it is an average. If you were to take 2 years ago when they showed up real early and this years "real late fish" and average them together you would probably end up with Last years return. So keep the faith!
Another thing I was thinking I am sure a fish doesn't have a "sense of time" so what triggers their upriver movement. Well flows and temp I would think. So if neither of them are where they usually are why would they come up the river now? Am I wrong?

[Rimshot]

Nope, you are right . They do have a little sense of time though. That's what gets them started in the first place. However, they will wait for quite a while for the right conditions before making a run for it. Eventually though if the right conditions never happen they will still come. There's still plenty of time.

[West Linn Wader]

Hey! There was a 1500% increase in the count from 4/5 to 4/6.....what are you guys complaining about?

[BUGLEMAN]

I have data that shows the peak passage over the falls on the Willamette varries by as much as one month. Chill boys, they are comming.