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Old 05-04-2013, 07:55 AM   #1
SKP
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Default Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

Go check out the spring chinook jack counts over Bonneville Dam, it's quite interesting!

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Old 05-04-2013, 09:39 AM   #2
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

So we are hosed this year but watch out because next years run will be huge???? Don't they use jack counts to determine following years run size?
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Old 05-04-2013, 09:51 AM   #3
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All it means is that there is a healthy ocean population of the same age group. Anything can happen in the ocean between now and next year.


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Old 05-04-2013, 10:44 AM   #4
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

No. What that means is they will way over predict the run next year and we will get .5 of what is predicted.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:24 AM   #5
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

How about the possibility that many of the adults from this year's run were netted in the ocean so we will never see them? Great jack counts tell the ocean netters to target them so the cycle repeats. "Ocean conditions" my ass.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:39 AM   #6
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

How about focusing on the positive like lots of jacks and over 7k adults. Keep crying at home while I kill springers.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:26 PM   #7
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

Save up and get ready to buy that tag next year!

(ODFW would love for everyone to get excited and by a license and tag)!!!
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Old 05-04-2013, 06:35 PM   #8
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

When you look at the Adult numbers,and compare the jack count it does not look that out of the norm to me.

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Old 05-04-2013, 07:10 PM   #9
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

Jacks eat just as well as adults.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:23 PM   #10
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by Towguy View Post
So we are hosed this year but watch out because next years run will be huge???? Don't they use jack counts to determine following years run size?
In part. But recent years the formulae for doing so have gone akilter. But a high jack count always means a better adult return the next year than a low one.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:25 PM   #11
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by Bait Bucket View Post
All it means is that there is a healthy ocean population of the same age group. Anything can happen in the ocean between now and next year.

Yes. Anything can happen. But a high jack count is always a better sign than a low one.

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Old 05-04-2013, 08:27 PM   #12
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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No. What that means is they will way over predict the run next year and we will get .5 of what is predicted.
Maybe so. But .5 of a high prediction is just as good as .95 of a modest prediction. And all the cynics and naysayers can happily spout off again.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:32 PM   #13
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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How about the possibility that many of the adults from this year's run were netted in the ocean so we will never see them? Great jack counts tell the ocean netters to target them so the cycle repeats. "Ocean conditions" my ass.
It's possible. But best evidence is that springers don't show up in high numbers in ocean fisheries. Have you documentation to the contrary? And with this year's return just getting going, there is as yet no firm indicator that it will come up short.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:34 PM   #14
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by Slabby View Post
How about focusing on the positive like lots of jacks and over 7k adults. Keep crying at home while I kill springers.
C'mon man!! This is no place for a positive outlook!!!
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:38 PM   #15
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Save up and get ready to buy that tag next year!
Really? The price of a tag is a hardship?
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:40 PM   #16
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by Fishalot View Post
When you look at the Adult numbers,and compare the jack count it does not look that out of the norm to me.

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Adults ytd are half of the 10yr average. Jacks are four times the 10 yr. This looks to be the third time in five years the jack count will be inexplicably high.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:42 PM   #17
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by jkeith View Post
Jacks eat just as well as adults.
And I think we can keep them starting May 16 when the big river opens for summer steel.
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Old 05-04-2013, 09:19 PM   #18
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by CKthumper View Post
It's possible. But best evidence is that springers don't show up in high numbers in ocean fisheries. Have you documentation to the contrary? And with this year's return just getting going, there is as yet no firm indicator that it will come up short.
Springers don't show up in high numbers in ocean fisheries? Says who? Where exactly are they when they are out in the salt?

One of the most prized(most expensive) salmon in the ocean and no one can find them????

Want to drive yourself crazy?

Would someone please tell me how many chinook salmon are taken off the shores of CA, OR, WA, BC, AK every year?

By all netters of all target fisheries..... American commercial...Canadian...Russian...Japanese...Chine se...

I've looked at the numbers and they seem to be impossibly complicated, might that be on purpose?

The real miracle is that any fish get back at all.
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Old 05-05-2013, 04:47 AM   #19
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

I don't see anything off the charts. There were 80,000+ jacks a few years back.
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Old 05-05-2013, 06:06 AM   #20
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

ET- Just passing along what I've read here, posted by one of the ACTUAL biologist guys, and what I read in a NW Sportsman article. They don't know where Springers go to rear, but say they don't show up in commercial sampling. Fall fish, on the other hand....

Maybe there are pirate fisheries out there taking springers....
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Old 05-05-2013, 06:09 AM   #21
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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I don't see anything off the charts. There were 80,000+ jacks a few years back.
That was two years ago. They redrew the charts four years ago when 100,000 showed up. That WAS off the charts.
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Old 05-05-2013, 06:17 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkeith View Post
Jacks eat just as well as adults.
I disagree 2010 was the best Jack fishing we put over 100 in the boat not one was as good as an adult even smoked. very fishy flavor low fat content.

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Old 05-05-2013, 06:40 AM   #23
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

That's a lot of jacks in the boat.....
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Old 05-05-2013, 06:41 AM   #24
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by SKP View Post
Go check out the spring chinook jack counts over Bonneville Dam, it's quite interesting!
No matter how high the jack count is I'm sure it'll go down like the last record jack count. The next year there was a group that was sure we'd have like a million uprivers the following year. Cooler heads at the state agencies will prevail and work with a forecast in the 250K range. The run will then be 150K or so and non-treaty fisheries will very handily skate past the finish line with lots of extra fish to spare because they "buffered" the the original harvest guideline to account for the possibility the run size will be much lower.

The overall paradigm is well established now. You can pretty much set it up and walk away.

It'll work like this until some new, large and unexpected variable rears it's head.
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Old 05-05-2013, 06:47 AM   #25
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

There are certain hatcheries up river that have been experimenting with delayed release of smolts, getting the fish larger before release. In many cases this disrupts the normal process and these fish return a year early. What we are currently seeing in these high jack counts is the direct result of this hatchery manipulation.
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Old 05-05-2013, 07:08 AM   #26
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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There are certain hatcheries up river that have been experimenting with delayed release of smolts, getting the fish larger before release. In many cases this disrupts the normal process and these fish return a year early. What we are currently seeing in these high jack counts is the direct result of this hatchery manipulation.
Try lower river hatcheries like the nfl. It doesnt work as good as early release as the smolts spend too much time in the dumb box before release to become actual fish. Love the experts at the hatcheries.
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Old 05-05-2013, 02:41 PM   #27
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Originally Posted by ET View Post
Springers don't show up in high numbers in ocean fisheries? Says who? Where exactly are they when they are out in the salt?

One of the most prized(most expensive) salmon in the ocean and no one can find them????

Want to drive yourself crazy?

Would someone please tell me how many chinook salmon are taken off the shores of CA, OR, WA, BC, AK every year?

By all netters of all target fisheries..... American commercial...Canadian...Russian...Japanese...Chine se...

I've looked at the numbers and they seem to be impossibly complicated, might that be on purpose?

The real miracle is that any fish get back at all.
you may want to find a new hobby, this fishing stuff seems to really stress you out. take an asprin and go golfing
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Old 05-05-2013, 03:52 PM   #28
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

Artificial selection, artificial selection and artificial selection.

Let's see anything else... artificial selection.

We are not Gods. DNA will foil us every single time. Especially when our definition of conservation/preservation success keeps changing.
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Old 05-05-2013, 04:53 PM   #29
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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you may want to find a new hobby, this fishing stuff seems to really stress you out. take an asprin and go golfing
Thanks for the advice.

On the contrary, I don't stress at all. I accept the seasons I'm given, work within them the best I can and try to maximize my enjoyment.

I've only gone springer fishing a few times this year as it has seemed very silly that a gazillion fishermen are out fishing for very few fish. I've used this time to do my honey-dos and my July, August, September, and October are looking good!


My favorite time to fish is September and October, when most people have tired of it and I find lots of fresh fish with few long faces at the ramp.

Last edited by ET; 05-05-2013 at 07:00 PM.
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Old 05-05-2013, 07:40 PM   #30
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

Septober, got to love it!



My favorite time to fish is September and October, when most people have tired of it and I find lots of fresh fish with few long faces at the ramp.[/QUOTE]
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Old 05-06-2013, 07:52 AM   #31
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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Jacks eat just as well as adults.
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Old 05-06-2013, 08:48 AM   #32
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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No. What that means is they will way over predict the run next year and we will get .5 of what is predicted.

Let the sniveling and name calling begin.....
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Old 05-06-2013, 09:04 AM   #33
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

I for one find jacks better eating then adults. Like veal... its also my understanding hatcheries will use jacks to along with adults to fertalize eggs? Breed a lessor strain get a lessor strain..

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Old 05-06-2013, 08:33 PM   #34
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I for one find jacks better eating then adults. Like veal... its also my understanding hatcheries will use jacks to along with adults to fertalize eggs? Breed a lessor strain get a lessor strain..
Jacks fertilize eggs in the wild, too. Jacks are not a lesser strain, just a share of each age class that comes back after one year at sea rather than 2 to 4 years.
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Old 05-06-2013, 08:40 PM   #35
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Well we've created half pound steelhead in California, it's only fair we top that here with the new half pound salmon.
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Old 05-06-2013, 09:07 PM   #36
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lesser strain....
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Old 05-07-2013, 07:32 AM   #37
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Default Re: Springer Jack Counts Off the Charts @ Bonneville Dam

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lesser strain....
You should be thankful for the change.
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