2004 Dissapointing Hatchery coho Year?

[Born to be Wild]

I haven't heard too much on next years hatchery coho forcast and it is a little early yet for a preseaon forecast but I have looked at the jack counts and they aren't very impressive and I didn't see or catch too many jacks this year except for in the Cowlitz.

I've been telling the locals here in Longview for a couple weeks that I had a gut feeling for a return somwhere's between 2002 and 2003.
I went to a meeting in Olympia last week and told Liz Hamilton and a couple others that same info prior to the meeting.

At the meeting next years runs were discussed and some in detail i.e. springers, fall chinook, upriver brights, etc.

The coho were discussed but it was pointed out that it is a bit early yet and no numbers (estimated run size) were given with the exception of a "rough" estimate of 2/3's the size of last years return.
Not very exciting news for hatchery coho fans.
Again it is too early for a serious prediction of 2004 coho but the rough estimate that was given us is around the same size run I've been telling folks.

I believe the Columbia fall chinook are estimated to decline to 500,000 from last years best return since '45 of 900,000.
500,000 is still a respectable number and might be a bit conservative but just doesn't compare with last years exceptional numbers.

When I get time in a couple two or three days I will find my handout from that Olympia meeting and post all the predicted runs for next year.

I got to get but here is something I posted on a different thread.
Also I didn't get to fish fall coho much at all this year due to my move from Depoe Bay to Longview/Kalama but I didn't see much jacks or hear from other anglers and excitement regarding coho jacks.

Unfortunately the hatchery coho aren't going to fare as well again and it would be my guess that next years return of hatchery coho will be somewhere between last years mediocre return and 2002's dismall return.
The only good jack counts that I saw the last time I looked a couple weeks ago was the Cowlitz and they are still returning.
I didn't see too many jacks this year but the ones I caught on the Cowlitz and Elocoman were very good size.
I'll take a shot at only 600,000-700,000 hatchery coho for 2004 but the ones that did survive are going to be of good size again.

If only them hatchery smolts were smarter...

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[ 12-15-2003, 06:23 PM: Message edited by: Born to be Wild ]

[Uglygreen]

Dan - you keep forgetting to email me your phone #'s, been up fishing your way a few times here of late and havnt been able to find you.

UG

[Born to be Wild]

Hey Brad, I haven't any luck finding me either.
I got to get and am just visiting and using someones computer.
I'm living on the Kalama River for now until I get things figured out.
The Kalama is about 30' from my cabin but I have not fished in a week or better.

Will be geeting a new cell phone as soon as I have time.
Verizon is not very compatible in the Longview area.

Will call you.

Dan

[KingFisher85]

did not catch very many Jacks this year also...I sure did catch a lot in late July, but them where chinooks....

[Salmonator]

Originally posted by Born to be Wild:
I haven't heard too much on next years hatchery coho forcast and it is a little early yet for a preseaon forecast but I have looked at the jack counts and they aren't very impressive and I didn't see or catch too many jacks this year except for in the Cowlitz.

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">I hope the biologists go a little more in-depth in their studies

[Born to be Wild]

Oh they will Salmonator.

That was just my gut feeling about next years coho (hatchery) returns and a very rough preliminary estimate or feel by some WDFW and or ODFW bio's.

But unfortunately it is not going to be an excellent hatchery year like 2001.
That you can bank on.

[Salmonator]

Originally posted by Born to be Wild:

But unfortunately it is not going to be an excellent hatchery year like 2001.
That you can bank on.

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">But should be a MUCH better run than we had in 1998. THAT you can bank on Hoo boy this is fun! What does the winner get when it's over?

[Born to be Wild]

Did we have a run in 1998? :grin:

'98 was the first year we reopened the Oregon coastal hatchery coho fishery and it was over estimated in the pre-season estimates.
If I remember right the early component of the run came in weaker than predicted by about 150,000 fish and made for some tough fishing off the Oregon coast.
The late component came in as strong as predicted but they migrate north.
The charters were all bashing the small quota and claiming they would fill it in 7-9 days or so.
As it turned out they were wrong as usual and I'm not sure they ever got the small quota that year.
I believe '98 was around 300,000-350,000.

In modern times, excellent years have been 1.3 or 1.7 mil (2001) or 2.3 mil in 1991.
In the 70's we had returns approaching or exceeding 4 million.

I should have probably used fair instead of poor and will change the thread name later.


Dano