Chnk Jack Pasage as run timing predictor?

[Lured In]

Giving my seemingly fatal case of springer fever, I am finding new ways of entertaining myself while not on the river. [img]graemlins/1zhelp.gif[/img]

Personally I am fascinated by much of the science behind run predictions and timing. As many of you know jack counts at Bonneville are used as a guage for adult run size the following year.

I was looking at the past 4 years data and noticed an interesting, albeit likely coincidental, pattern. The intensity of the run seems to increase dramatically following the passage of the first chinook jack. As a rough guess, it is a factor of 7-10 days following the first jack that the run starts to really heat up. (Generally going from several hundred adults to a couple thousand.)

So what does this mean? Nothing really, just something fun to think about and hope the first jack gets here soon. :grin:

[Lured In]

SH...notice as I said it was likely coincidental. Are you still working on your taxes? :tongue: :grin:

[Silver Hilton]

Yup, half way through entering the 66 pages of transactions. I think i'm gonna get me another job.

[Silver Hilton]

Check out the correlation bewteen temp and the run. Temp is available on the DART site. 7 degrees C seems to be the number.

[Mark Vickers]

We're pretty close to that. 7 C is 44.6 F. On Sunday on the Columbia upstream from the Willamette, the surface temperature was 44.1 F.

[Silver Hilton]

That's kinda the point.