Spring Chinook...Do the math...

Lured In · 06-04-2002, 09:14 AM

Anyone still watching the dam and falls counts? Original preseason forcast was 340,000 returning to the mouth of the Columbia including Willamette River fish. Last in season forcast was 309,000.

275,000 over Bonnie as of 6/3
55,000 over Willamette Falls
10,000 kept in Willamette
12,000 kept in Columbia Sport fishery (last known number I could find)
12,000 kept in Columbia Commercial Fishery.

Total known return.....(drum roll please)....

364,000 Spring chinook. Counts at Bonnie are still pretty strong with roughly 2300 going over on Monday. This does not include fish in the Clack, Sandy or WA tributaries which would probably add several more thousand.

Point number one. The Columbia sport fishery was stopped at a more accurate 17K harvest number (if I recall correctly) based on a 1.7% impact with a 309,000 return. What about the other 50,000 that have now passed the dam? Why not reopen it for another weekend since we have exceeded both preseason and in season forcasts?

Check out the total jack returns to date. Only 6722 as of 6/3. Based on the prediction numbers of 20:1 (returning adults to jacks) that would put next years spring Chinook total at 140,000. I would say don't count on much, if any, spring chinook season on the Columbia next year. (I am not trying to be "gloom and doom" just looking ahead.)

Thoughts?

JNR · 06-04-2002, 01:47 PM

Is that a 62" HDTV calculator you've got there?

That's alot of math dude !!

Fish Hunter · 06-04-2002, 02:42 PM

Remember this? http://www.ifish.net/cgi-local/ultim...c;f=1;t=011218

Let's check the Springer count in July and see how far over the estimate we end up.

Where is the sense to releasing clipped springers on the Columbia right now?

finclipped · 06-04-2002, 03:36 PM

The springer count for the Columbia ends 5/31. You are now looking at the summer run. That means the actual run is less than predicted for the Columbia.

The Columbia and Willamette are managed on different quota's and ODFW can't transfer availability from the Willamette quota to the Columbia.

As far as not being able to target hatchery fish, well you have a point.

My guess is there WILL be a Columbia Sports springer fishery next year. Just not as big.

Lured In · 06-04-2002, 04:13 PM

Finclipped...I am not sure where you are going with you comment. First off, even if we knocked a few days off, the total count would still be over the total forcast. The forcast, preseason or otherwise, is to the mouth of the Columbia and includes Willamette fish. As far as ESA impacts you are correct and the fisheries are managed differently.

The 1.7% ESA impact is based on the upriver impact as a function of total return. So if the run goes up in size, so does the total number of fish that can be impacted. Same goes true the other way. The Columbia sport fishery was closed because we were approaching the "magical" 1.7% impact on the FORCASTED run size.

When the run was downgraded to 240,000 they closed the season as we approached its respective impact. When it was upgraded to 309,000 it was reopened to allocate the additional impact. My point is that it should be "upgraded" again and the respective impact be given to the sport fishers.

David Johnson · 06-04-2002, 06:40 PM

Just think, if they "upgrade" it again the nets could have acrack at them too. Be careful for what you wish for.

.....and if they over estimated the run and let too many fish get caught then every one would be yelling at them for letting too many get caught instead of not enough, it's a loose, loose situation for the managers.

[ 06-04-2002, 07:41 PM: Message edited by: David Johnson ]

finclipped · 06-04-2002, 07:05 PM

Lured in, I think your numbers are a little off. The estimate to pass over Bonneville was 334,000. The estimate entering the Columbia was closer to 420,000. http://www.wa.gov/wdfw/fish/crc/jan1802jointstaff.pdf

Mad Mikey · 06-04-2002, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fish Hunter:
Remember this? http://www.ifish.net/cgi-local/ultim...c;f=1;t=011218

Let's check the Springer count in July and see how far over the estimate we end up.

Where is the sense to releasing clipped springers on the Columbia right now?

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">Fish Hunter you beat me to it. When I first saw that post a while back I had a good chuckle. Totally different year and different water conditions, fish are taking their time. ODFW usually is pretty accurate, if not lowballing their estimates.
The author of that post actually has put out some good stuff and I was suprised to see him jump on the gloom and doom wagon so quick. I think he may have a computer at work and gets a bit bored, heck I'd do the same thing if I had a desk job. No matter what, more fish is good fish BUT....
Take yer lumps Rob..... :tongue: :grin:

[ 06-04-2002, 10:32 PM: Message edited by: Mad Mikey ]

Biteme · 06-05-2002, 05:55 AM

Its not april anymore its now june. spring is nearly over and we are moving into summer which means the good springer fishing is in the tributaries of the big rivers anyway. I say move up the smaller rivers such as the sandy, clackamas, santiam or some of the washington tribs if you want springers or move on to lets say more summer like activities such as keeper sturgeon in astoria, get your self and gear ready for buoy 10 salmon fishing, summer steelhead, crabbing and so on.

nwfish.com

Quote:

15 days more in the gorge, then off to Astoria

Lured In · 06-05-2002, 07:49 AM

Finclipped I have read the Columbia Compact season summary and forcast previously. I guess maybe I am not so concerned with the specific numbers as I am with the process. All of the numbers I am using are from ODFW releases and in season updates from the Compact.

David makes a good point, but again I am not so concerned with the reopening of the fishery as I am with the lack of "follow up." In season they are on the numbers like hawks, any deviation and they change the season. Once it closes, do they suddenly stop counting?

Finclipped brings up another good point though. Officially spring chinook counts end 5/31. Since when did the fish go by a calendar. Certainly not this year as even WDFW and ODFW have admitted the run was "late." So I guess while they are late in getting here, they all made it before 5/31.

Again I am trying to understand the process or "science" behind this.

Fish Hunter · 06-05-2002, 08:22 AM

Good point Dennis, actually been out for Sturgeon the last two weekends. :grin: I'm out of that springer state of mind anyway.
I will get out for Columbia Steelhead soon though, and last year it was frustrating to release clipped chinooks in June and July that my fishing partners would have utilized for dinner. It's all good though plenty of fish out there to catch.