War in Iraq/History Channel shows

[Silver Hilton]

There were two hours of great programming on the History Channel today, and they'll probably be repeated this week. They were on the air and ground components of the last gulf war.

They appeared to have a lot of military sponsorship, as nothing derogatory was said about any of the weapons systems. For example, the Patriot missile was presented as being a robust answer to the Scuds, and there has been significant debate about that.

It kind of reminded me of the opening scene from Gladiator. You know, where the barbarians learned how much it sucks to be on the receiving end of the war machine?

Overall, though, it was an interesting piece on our ability to project force, that left me with two questions:

1) Has Hussein learned anything? Will Iraq's forces be stronger and more committed this time, or will they largely give up again?

2) Will we be overconfident, due to the ease of victory last time? Will we get a hard lesson, if Iraq's forces are tougher this time?

Wish I had cable.
This war will be a lot harder due to Bush Sr. not taking care of it during the first war

[Boedy]

This things over in less then 30 days after we go in. Iraqi army won’t stand and fight they remember the ass kicking they took last time and if some do they won’t be effective and will die in short order. In the desert they really have no chance as we out range them in ever category. Few JDAM’s from our B2’s into their forward Command and control bunkers and its over.

I talked to a few POW’s the last time that said they were going to fight but when their tanks started to blow up one night and they didn’t know why they changed their minds fast then ran and gave up to the first people they saw ( Hellfire’s from AH-64 apache FYI.) Fact is they can’t stand and fight even if they want to, and they know it all to well. You may get a few diehards but not enough to matter. We didn’t lose a single M1a1 the last time as even the top of the line Iraqi T-72 can’t shoot as far as our M1s and that’s a bad problem to have in the desert. As long as we own the air they have no chance and they know it.

I think we go after Saddam personally this time hit every one of his palaces and bunkers make the Iraq army and people understand right away what our target is and his Army folds in mass again. Game over as soon as he goes underground and loses control of his army.

Bodey,
I hope you are right on this. It's going to probably be street fighting and that is going to increase our casualties.

If I was in charge during the first war they wouldn't have stopped until Hussein was dead.

How was the fishing?

[Boedy]

I don’t think it will come to street fighting as Saddam is a guy who rules by fear and once his army knows he is on the way out they wont want to die for him.

Got skunked Wednesday but did pick up a nice one on the Clack Friday. Been fence building all weekend so I haven’t got out.

How about you?

[ 01-19-2003, 08:37 PM: Message edited by: Boedy ]

[Silver Hilton]

Boedy,

I hope you are right. However, I posed the question for a reason. Hussein is many things, but he ain't stupid. Ten years ago, one of our biggest logistical issues was what to do with all the POWs, as 80% of his troops surrendered on the first two days. That had to really chap Saddam's hide.

So, in the last ten years, I've got to think he's been trying to figure out how to avoid having his troops surrender en mass like they did last time. I wonder if he found a way?

[Boedy]

SH

I really believe that once we are in country his army will fear us more then him as they will know his time is up.

Republican Guard may go down fighting but that’s not going to amount to more then a speed bump on the road to Baghdad as they cant go toe to toe with our armor. Saddam jumps ship or goes under ground fast as we will be looking for him since the presidential order about taking out heads of state has been rescinded. He is a coward deep down and will try and get to Libya and live in exile rather then die in a bunker.

[ 01-19-2003, 08:47 PM: Message edited by: Boedy ]

Boedy
I hope I'm wrong on the amount of restance we'll run into.
I don't think Gadifey will have him.

[ 01-19-2003, 08:58 PM: Message edited by: Keta ]

[1pump]

SH,
Answers to your questions, based on my own observations and opinions:
1) He hasn't learned anything, and it's been widely acknowledged that Iraq's military is only a fraction of what it was in '91. The conscripts will give up, but the Republican Guard and Saddam himself won't.

2) We won't be overconfident. It's been stressed repeatedly that this will be a completely different war than last time.
There will be a hard lesson, but not for our military. It'll be a political and foreign policy lesson. The UN is already getting irritated with our posturing and our insistence on ignoring the international community.
I'll stop now before a go on a rant and **** everybody off.

[Boedy]

We all enjoy a good Rant 1pump :grin:

Go ahead 1pump, I have an asbestos keyboard :grin:

[Silver Hilton]

Yeah, c'mon 1pump. We all get to rave here, and we're doing a pretty good job of being tolerant of each other's rants.

So, let it go, bro!

[1pump]

I think you're right, Keta. Khadafy's quietly been working on "image repair" over the last few years and he doesn't need a houseguest like Saddam.
Maybe he could run next door and get cozy with the Iranians. I'm sure they'd welcome him with open arms! :grin:

p.s. This isn't a rant. I'll let you know when I work one up...... :tongue:

[ 01-19-2003, 09:16 PM: Message edited by: 1pump ]

[Silver Hilton]

pumper,

Don't worry, we know one when we see one.

There have been a bunch of articles recently speculating on Hussein going into exile. One of them yesterday noted the difficulty with the proposition. While several countries are working on ideas that might facilitate Saddam taking a nice long, permanent vacation, he might not know about it. The last person know to have discussed this concept with him, did so in the 80's. His then current health minister conveyed the news that parties were discussing exile for Hussein, and suggested that, while it was a stupid idea, perhaps it should be listened to, if only to find out what was being said.

He was immediately escorted into the next room, and shot. Teach him for being creative.

I would be a little surprised if anyone inside of Iraq is going to tell Hussein about these ideas for exile. Might be what we used to call a career limiting move.

SH,
Dissent Iraq style? No wonder he got 125% in the election.

[Boedy]

Maybe someone will take him into a room and put a bullet in him sure would make things easy.

Don’t think Saddam has the guts to get on that long plane ride over international waters to Libya anyway. Lots could happen on a flight like that.

[Silver Hilton]

I wonder if he lets any of his staff carry a gun? I doubt it.

[1pump]

Not to mention he has two sons with ambitions of their own. The older one, Uday, makes his dad look like a boy scout. Saddam had to throw his arse in jail for seven months to calm him down. The brothers' fortunes are tied to their father's. The younger one is heir apparent so he has a strong interest in seeing the old man hang in there. So we get to deal with "spawn of Saddam". [img]graemlins/eek13.gif[/img]

Hitler's staff wasn't allowed weapons either.

[ 01-19-2003, 09:41 PM: Message edited by: 1pump ]

The younger son is quiet and worse than Uday.

[1pump]

I couldn't rememember how to spell Qusai's name so during a search I stumbled across this:
Uday Hussein

Nothing like a little sibling rivalry!

[Kilgore]

The war with Iraq is not going to be a cakewalk like the Desert Storm, which was lopsided because of the open field conditions. But unless there is a coup or a massive defection by the Iraqi soldiers, our retired generals are predicting a long drawn-out urban war. The satellite images indicate that the Iraqi weapons are in close proximity to the mosques and civilian homes, so even our best radar and satellite guided aerial bombs are going to be of limited use. And once the Iraqis engage the Israelis, the war may be widened to include other countries. Anybody who thinks it’s going to be a quick job is disregarding the opinions of the leaders who directed the last conflict.