2004 El Nino forecast

[Nofish]

All of this live bait talk is very interesting and quite frankly, pretty distracting. Before I head out the door this morning to take my son and daughter on a goose hunt, I thought I would throw this out - it comes from the Scripp's Institution of Oceanography page referencing the El Nino/La Nina forecast for 2004:

Forecast Summary
The model is forecasting warm conditions to develop in 2004.

Happy Thanksgiving all...Bob

[Silver Eagle]

Bob does that mean the Marlin are coming? Maybe a couple Dorado, would save me going to Mexico for three Weeks in April huh. Ray

[id. painter]

Warm is good . Right? id. p.

[CAPT KUJO]

Did I hear a 2004 TUNA report?


CAPT KUJO

[Mello-Yello]

El Nino = good for tuna, bad for salmon

[Miss B Haven]

Hmmm... did they say if it was going to be here in MARCH? I better step up that work schedule on my Diesel. :grin:

[sturgn]

The Airslot will most definatly be ready for Tuna, I went an entire year and fished a total of three times, compared to three times a week before that, I am READY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pilar]

That was a detailed forecast.

Here's mine for the winter ... It's gonna rain.

And snow! :depressed:

[Miss B Haven]

Originally posted by Pilar:

Here's mine for the winter ... It's gonna rain.

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">I hope that's all it does. If it keeps up the early trend thru Feb we'll all be praying for some unfrozen precipitation and nice balmy 40 degree weather! :shocked: I might need that wood back Pilar!
:whazzup:

It does this a lot around here though. Starts out with a couple of teaser snow flurries early and then gets down to wet business the rest of the season (till July!).

[Nofish]

M-Y is right, El Nino is good for tuna, very bad for salmon. The whole El Nino/La Nina forecast thing is pretty experimental...but it does suggest that equatorial currents are aligning themselves for an El Nino event in 2004. If you want the details, start with this NWS link: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Monterey/elnino.html
Cheers...Bob

[Miss B Haven]

Remember that an El Nino usually doesn't impact anything until the next year. It may start in summer 2004 but (other than immediate temps) it won't really imapct food supply or Salmon unless it's a big one and holds throughout the winter and into the next summer. The last big one lasted how long? It really did impact the Salmon Fishery but I don't think it was until the 2nd season and on.
(Don't flame me if I'm wrong- doing this from memory.. .just set me straight).

This year we had warm (65 degree was the highest I hit.. lots of days of 64) withing 20-25 miles of the CR. It wasn't an El-nino. Salmon fishing sure couldn't be called bad. I did hear a lot of complaints that the water was to cold in close for Salmon (upwelling).

[Jimmy Carl Black]

The fishing will be good for all species. This El Nino is a test of your allegience to The Fish Gods.

Now Chant:

TUNAHHHHHHH
TUNAHHHHHHH
TUNAHHHHHHH
TUNAHHHHHHH
TUNAHHHHHHH
TUNAHHHHHHH
TUNAHHHHHHH

Repeat this every 33 and 1/3 seconds through 17 cycles of the decadal oscillation and look for the diving birds.

[Onokai]

Hey Bob, Thanks for the link and the good news. I try and not use that S word (salmon) so El Nino is sweet news to me. I'm a TUNA fisherman. ok some dorado or yellowtail now and then will do. But albacore, bluefin and yellowfin are best. Lets all hope for the nino effect to kick in. It always brings the fish we love with it.Also Bob that book on tuna is good- a little dry and technical- but very good.Lots of history on the whole tuna fishery as well.Mark

ONOKAI

[Nofish]

Mark, I will admit that albacore are my very favorite to pursue - however, I don't mind spending the off time chasing other critters. I am glad to hear that the book is a pretty good one...I guess I'll have to bite the bullet. Is there anything about albacore in there?

Mel, we also had some serious cold water scenarios this past summer (actually for the past two years) off Gold Beach, Brookings and Crescent City which basically ruined the ocean salmon fishery. By ruining, I mean they were harder to locate. The salmon and steelhead runs have been strong off our stretch of coast for the past few years. I do however remember the impact the last serious El Nino (1996?) had on the salmon runs. We were catching adult spring chinook females that were only 25-26 inches long out of the Klamath River. They kinda looked like snakes as I recall.

I have a question for you about tuna fishing up your way - how close does the tuna water normally come in a "typical" year???
Happy Thanksgiving...Bob

[KeyWest]

I was pretty consistent about the 25 mile point this past year. Between the 124 40 and 124 50 lines

[Miss B Haven]

Nofish- I'm not sure there is any such thing as a "typical" year up here or anywhere else. I'm just a novice at this Albi/Offshore stuff anywho (only my second season and 2002 was just a couple exporatory addiction trips!). Wadda I know? [img]graemlins/stupid.gif[/img]

KeyWest said it for this year. Water was warm enough closer in several trips (and several weeks) but the fish were really in numbers out there 25-35 miles this year.

[Nofish]

Mel and Key West, thanks for the reply. I too am relatively new at chasing tuna out of Oregon/NoCal. This past summer, we fished out of Depoe Bay (once), Coos Bay, Brookings and Crescent City and found them as close as 16 miles. I guess I should re phrase my question for anyone that might know - Do albacore typically come within 25 and 30 miles off the Oregon coast in the summer? or is a 40-50 mile run more of the norm? Just curious, I know this past summer was a good one, just not sure how good. Cheers...Bob

[KeyWest]

This was my first year back in Oregon where I have fished for Tuna regularly. I have been out in the past (10+ years) with charter boats, and my own. It was 50+ miles then, but in general, the tuna population has increased (consensus of a number of commercial fisherman). I don't know how far back the archives on Terrafin or Coastwatch go, but if it is a number of years, the monthly composite of August or September might be a good place to start looking - see how close in the 60 degree water, on average, was.

[KeyWest]

I just checked, the monthly composites on CoastWatch go back to 1998. Looking at where the warm water (16 C+) was in August, the approximate distance off the Columbia River was around:

1998 - 124 40 line, or about 25 miles
1999 - 124 30 line, or about 17 miles
2000 - 125 00 line, or about 38 miles
2001 - 125 30 line, or about 62 miles
2002 - 124 50 line, or about 32 miles
2003 - 124 40 line, or about 25 miles

These are my "eyeball" guess of the warm water pattern. The distances were calculated from bouy 2SJ to the West line number noted above, and the 46 10 North line. Distances are Statute miles.

Obviously, I must be bored this morning.

[ 11-27-2003, 09:53 AM: Message edited by: KeyWest ]

[Nofish]

Dean, that's pretty funny...I was in the Coastwatch site also (after I determined that there weren't any archived maps on Terrafin). Cool stuff. Bob

[Onokai]

BOb, I have caught tuna the past 5 years out of Coos Bay within 30 miles every summer except this past one. went to Northern Baja instead. My biggest numbers of fish have all been there as well. Mark

ONOKAI

[Tongass2004]

Tunahhhhh would be good. Really enjoyed this years blue water, dolphins, and close-in 61 F water! The salmon were in anyway.

It's funny that several 'expert authorities' are predicting a warm winter, lots of rain, but we've had a couple of pretty good cold snaps and the ski resorts are already running lots of lifts ...before Thanksgiving to boot. It'll probably warm up before Christmas and then stay that way ...welcome to Oregon. Me? I'd like to move back to Alaska. I like the cold, and the fishing. Winter steelhead are starting fairly well on the Alsea ...looks like a good year.

Brian

Tongass,
Where in Alaska?
I worked for the AMHS and lived in Ketchikan.

[Reel Creel]

TUNAHHHHH
TUNAHHHHH
TUNAHHHHH
TUNAHHHHH
TUNAHHHHH