The rule of 'Ten' revisited

Pilar · 10-01-2003, 10:06 AM

I have come to understand that the rule of 'Ten' is an oversimplification.

That is adding the seas and swells for a go, no-go test on ocean trips. It is very possible to encounter dangerous conditions in a sea and swell that adds up to 6 or 7 if the period of the waves is short and the wind is up. Also you can safely go out on a long swell no wind day on 10 footers or even bigger with a long period.

Would some of you barnacle encrusted individuals assist please in trying to make a more sensible rule? It was pointed out to me by someone that I respect that this rule is flawed and may lead inexperienced boaters astray. After some thought I can see his point.

Things to consider (please add any you can think of)

1) Period and size of the waves.
2) Planned direction of float plan vs. actual and predicted wind and wave direction.
3) The trend of the conditions. Worsening or calming.
4) The stability of the conditions. Calm before approaching bad weather or long term stability.
5) Tide, bar conditions and time of day.
6) Actual conditions as reported by buoys, observers and bar cams.
7) And of course the MK I eyeball from 'chicken point'.

Any others? Can we make a more realistic and practical thumb rule?

It comes down to experience and making judgement calls based on that. When you are just starting as a seafarer, experience is earned the hard way. I'm hoping we can make the learning a safe thing for the new guys. Also us more experienced dogs could stand to think about this a bit too ..... so we do not become complacent.

id. painter · 10-01-2003, 10:17 AM

Thanks Pilar. I had those very concerns about that rule of thumb.
There are other factors ,, they need to be taken into account. I my self had no confidence in that as a way to determine the safety of a particular trip. id. p. the P is for puppy. hi ho id, p.

8knots · 10-01-2003, 10:21 AM

Great criteria to consider when going out. The rule of 10 is an inexact science and the factors that you list all play into it. I am willing to bounce around a bit more for a three to four hour salmon trip, verses and all day tuna trip or overnight run up the coast. The list you compiled is a great one to be added to the rule of 10 and I would have appreciated it as a novice. I learned my early boating in Texas and So. CA. Our NW conditions take so much more monitoring from day to day, that a "one size fits all conditons rule" doesn't cut it here.

WaterDog · 10-01-2003, 10:27 AM

For what it�s worth I think the �rule of ten� is a starting point. I am really more comfortable for me and my boat to abide by a �rule of 8�.

I am just learning this ocean thing but what I do is look at EVERYTHING you listed and watch it like a religion for several days before I go. If it�s a 10 + I find something else to do. I�m not so sure it can be simplified or boiled down. A skipper really has to look at �all of the above� to make a good decision.

CAPT KUJO · 10-01-2003, 10:38 AM

You may find this hard to believe, but I always work on the rule of "7". Because I can travel the fastest and the safest. Beyond that I just become "another" boat in the ocean and many of the other factors now take a higher priority on my evaluation list. Hope I haven't offended anybody.

CAPT KUJO

Miss B Haven · 10-01-2003, 10:42 AM

Good list, hard to put numbers to but all things I consider. I suppose you could put an algorithim to it and have your puter spit a go/no-go if you really wanted. Most of the time it's "the gut" that crunches that data. You may want to add size of the boat if you are actually going to put some numbers (and advice) to this.
I've fished in 6 plus swell (on a long period) with 5 or 6 foot wind wave on 5 seconds or so several times this year. Big sheep everywhere. It wasn't any fun and you had to have your dancing shoes on. Had to fish with it on your stern or at least quartering on your stern.
I also did not at any time feel it was dangerous in Miss B Haven. Never took any green water (I also never went over 10-11 knots). Spray only when beating into it or taking it on the side.
I wouldn't have been out there in anything smaller though lemmee tell ya. The day we turned around and came back (Mr. Fisherman was there) it was about 6-7 swell and the same 4-5 foot wind wave only it was stacking from approx the same direction and we were taking it mostly on the side (it was NW swell and N wind wave) and we wanted to go 240 or at least 270). When they stack it's a lot different too. You get those nice tall sheep then (are those Llamas or Camels or??)
I pretty much ignore the swell height unless they predict below 8 seconds, then I have to look at it in conjunction with the wind wave. I also look at the swell height if the wind/wind wave is on the same direction as the swell and it stacks.
I guess my overall rule is this: If I don't think I'm going to have fun I don't go. If I'm already out there though and it's not feeling scary I'll stick it out if I know it'll be on my stern coming home. If it's on my side and I don't like it (or think it's going to get worse on the way home) I'm outa there! :shocked: [img]graemlins/1zhelp.gif[/img]

Have to give some more thought to this, good idea for those who haven't got the gut developed yet (is that heartburn or seasickness or fear I feel from that forecast). :grin:

BUGLEMAN · 10-01-2003, 10:44 AM

The most important factor that this pup understands is to have a trip plan that includes following seas on the way in - calculated from the most likely and predicted weather pattern for the day. That way, if it does blow more than predicted you won't be in a world of hurt.

Aqua-Holic · 10-01-2003, 10:49 AM

A couple other "simple" rules are:
Swell height plus wind speed being less than 30.
Wave height plus swell height being less than the period.
And I would think size and type of vessel play a big part.....which is not often mentioned.

Dean

rojo · 10-01-2003, 01:20 PM

Mel put it very well. Those gut feelings seem to work for me. One thing though, I hate those square waves i.e. 6ft at 6seconds, especially when the wind is from a diff direction then the swell. You can have a large swell say 10 or 12 ft at 20 seconds and with no wind its not bad. Boat size does matter even though sometimes I think a smaller one of say 22 to 24 ft does rides in the troughs better than my 32...Roger

Popeye · 10-01-2003, 01:41 PM

rojo.....Very Good....You are the first person (that I have seen) on this board that has mentioned "Square Waves". That is a term that all of the commercial & charter captains that I know use quite frequently. It is not an equation of whether to go or not, but it is definately one of the most uncomfortable conditions, and depending on size and duration, one of the most dangerous.

Miss B Haven · 10-01-2003, 01:43 PM

Rojo- where you been? Haven't seen you a lot the last month. Your boats lonely! I'll be crabbing the weekend of the 11th-12th. Swing by if you're around. :smile:

rojo · 10-01-2003, 02:20 PM

Popeye- as the son(I'm 62) of a oldtime commercial fisherman, it was used often. have been over and through many...LOL
Mel- been on vacation (always on vacation) for about 6 wks, will be down to check the boat out
this weekend or next. mad as hell they cut off gator fishing down river, mite have to take up tuna fishing....Roger

Miss B Haven · 10-01-2003, 03:48 PM

Rojo- The Tuna aren't around during the now closed, was open, Psuedo late, Sturgeon season anyway. Why don't you take up another hobby, like Gillnet boat sinking. Then I can go Sturgeon fishing.
I'm not mad, livid maybe, not mad.
In fact I was too livid to read and undrstand the whole thing. Still doesnt make sense that they close the 2nd season since they closed the first one at the first quota. Or am I just [img]graemlins/stupid.gif[/img] ?

Pete · 10-02-2003, 03:26 AM

NOAA includes a graph I don't understand on some buoy reports. Maybe I'm off base completely, maybe not, but could this be a tool that helps untangle oceanability - whether the ocean is approachable?

Plot of wave energy versus frequency (and period)

Can anyone 'splain me what "spectral density" is without using the words "period", "power" and "frequency"? :grin:

Albacore Tuna Captain · 10-02-2003, 04:36 AM

It all comes down to the comfort and safety zone of each vessel and that can only be established through experience. My boat is 55 foot with a 16.5 foot beam. The Misty is almost identical. But the Misty can take seas the Blitz cannot. It has a lot to do with the hull design, top hamper, displacement and ballast distribution. There are no set wave sizes. The time between crests, the direction and current all play a factor. I can go tuna fishing when the winds are 25 and less out of the NW if I'm doing a course of 240. But if I'm doing 270, it's extremely uncomfortable. Also, I can't go SW if the wind out of the south is more than 20 because the prevailing current piles up against the waves like ebb chop. So it all comes down to experience with your vessel.

Miss B Haven · 10-02-2003, 06:35 AM

Pete- how about..... if the waves are close together, it's gunna hurt!

CATCH AND EAT · 10-02-2003, 07:24 AM

Comfort level X experience X vessel X wind X Swell X Current X tide height X bouy reports X sleep X sea sickness X crew X safety equipment X desire X judgement X acts of GOD X water temps X are the fish there? X WHAT THE HECK JUST SPOOLED ME?????= a go or not go sinario. Basically, go with your gut but do the research first.

I know what I can handle and what my boat will do or wont do. Personally, I never want to find out what it wont do because my gut won't allow it.

So if the sheeps are big the boat stays in the barn.