Salty Dogs! Forecast ??

Ivana Fishalot · 08-13-2003, 12:11 AM

How accurate is NOAA? Last week they were forecasting 7' combined seas on Monday for Saturday morning outside of the Columbia Bar. It turned out to be really tame. Today they are forecasting a 7' swell with 3' wind wave for this coming Saturday.

Do you think that they are remotely correct? Or, are they about as reliable as the weather forecasters and the only way to find out is to show up and maybe not get out? I have been watching the trends and it does appear that conditions are deteriorating.

ScottyV

P.S. What conditions constitute a small craft advisory and what limitations are set for crossing the bar in those conditions?

[ 08-13-2003, 01:14 AM: Message edited by: ScottyV ]

Abalone · 08-13-2003, 05:44 AM

Try calling them. Ihave and have had some interesting conversations about your subject. I have also visited their booth at the sportsman show. What I have learned is that they are on the very conservative side. Think about it ! If you were making predictions that many people are using to make decisions about they could result in getting capsized in the Ocean what would you do ?
When NOAA gives a forcast they report the worst conditions for that day in whatever zone you are
fishing. In other words the morning could be flat but in the afternoon the wind will kick up to
20 knotts with Six foot Swells and Three foot Seas, NOAA will report that as the conditions for the whole day. They used to give a moring report and an afternoon report but they quit doing that about ten years ago. You need to study the weather and learn to do your own predictions. I don't know what kind of boat you have but I stay off the Ocean when ever the Wind gets above Fifteen
MPH. Why ? Because that's the point when things start to turn white.

I hope that helps.

Call NOAA: They like to chat and will be glad to answer your questions.

TWB · 08-13-2003, 08:27 AM

That forcast is from 0-60 miles offshore. Most of the time it's a different world at 60 miles. They have to cover a lot of water with one general forcast. Use there forcast, watch the bouy reports, and as always a visual is still the best way.

Years ago I used to cancel trips based on the wind the night before. In the morning the wind would go down, everyone would go fishing, and I would be tied to the dock. I now look for myself in the morning.

Most important: no the sea conditions and the capability of your craft.

Jerry

TideRipper · 08-13-2003, 09:15 PM

ScottyV - The NOAA forecasts are updated every 6 hours: 3:30am, 9:30am, 3:30pm, 9:30pm. The time is posted at the begining of each forecast. I never bother to look at the extended forecasts because they are usually never right. I check the forecast and buoy data the day before I want to go out and then again that same evening. My final decision to go is not made until 3:30am the next morning. Note: don't drink any coffee until after that forecast because you might be going back to bed!

As for reliability, NOAA is the source that your local weather station uses to make their forecast. The only difference is they think they can sing and dance, and maybe tell a joke or two.

When the wind speed hits 25 knots, you can expect to see a small craft advisory. This speed usually equates to a prediction of 4' wind waves. Large swells and unfavorable bar conditions will also generate a small craft advisory sometimes.

Don't expect the Coast Guard to be right there to tell you if you can go out or not. They usually wont be, except in extreme conditions, but then it should be obvious.

Ivana Fishalot · 08-13-2003, 11:39 PM

Thanks All of you. I am going out with a guy that I work with in his boat. His boat is a 19' smokercraft and I'm not sure of the powerplant. He's been out many times before so I'm fairly confident in his ability. I am mostly trying to figure this stuff out for myself. We are planning to go out sat. the 16th.

Here are the tides:

8/16/2003 4:40am H 7.2 11:02am L 0.2 5:19pm H 7.5 11:36pm L 1.2

sunrise~ 6:15

Conditions permitting when would you all cross?

I plan to purchase a 23' to 27' fiberglass hull fishing boat in a year or two for myself. The more I learn now the better off I'll be later. :smile:

3:30 am?? We'll already be on the road and probably be half way to Astoria. Don't have the luxury of looking out the window to decide whether or not to go fishing.

We are going to go down and might just stay in the river. Maybe they'll be killin' em at buoy 10. :grin:

Worse comes to worse, he suggested we shoot down to Nehalem. How's the fishing there? He talked about trolling the jetty.

[ 08-14-2003, 03:33 AM: Message edited by: ScottyV ]

Ivana Fishalot · 08-14-2003, 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by TideRipper:

As for reliability, NOAA is the source that your local weather station uses to make their forecast. The only difference is they think they can sing and dance, and maybe tell a joke or two.

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">EXACTLY, and we all know that NO ONE can predict the weather around here :grin:

Phil Layer · 08-14-2003, 08:50 AM

Saturday looks like a doable day for salmon fishing. Sunday may be a little too rough, eh?

Phil Layer · 08-14-2003, 12:06 PM

Keep us posted, Sea Foam, and thanks for the eye witness report!

royalfish · 08-14-2003, 12:57 PM

It appears you are going to the mighty Columbia. Be very careful this weekend. Forescast is for wind and more wind. There was a thread earlier this week about dial a bouy. Check it out, it is updated every hour. A person may or may not get across the bar early (you need to subtract an hour from your tides for the entrance to CR) but it is dark until 5:30. Once outside you are probably there until the bar lays down. I don't know if I would like to be out there in a 19'smokercraft with 10-15 kt winds and 4-5 seas. Bouy 10 is a great option. Be safe and catch some fish!!

Sea Foam · 08-14-2003, 02:43 PM

Latest report from the Newport jetty weather station shows 4-5 Knot winds and the stonewall banks buoy shows 10 knot winds and 4-1/2 ft waves. Steep however. More than likely all wind waves. It'll be interesting to see if they change their minds again like last weekend. I'm gonna be ready for em this time. :grin:

Sea Foam · 08-14-2003, 11:56 PM

Last night by sundown it was calm and this morning it was dead calm also. Saw lots of folks heading out on the charters for a few hours. I would think it will be OK for a while in the morning. Look at what it did last weekend after all the dire predictions! I'm settin the alarm for 5 A.M. and takin a look. :grin: