Ifishstock Tillamook Anglers! Check your forecast...

Mr. Fisherman · 08-06-2003, 08:37 AM

Just a heads up for this weekend....
(edit, Jennie: Wanted you to be aware for ifishstock! Thank you, Mr. Fisherman!)

NOAA Forecast for the Newport area

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON AND WESTWARD 60 NM PZZ200-062230- SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST... WEAK HIGH PRES OVER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. LOW AND FRONT MOVE SLOWLY CLOSER THU WITH REMAINS OF FRONT PUSHING ASHORE THU NIGHT. LOW PRES 1009 MB MOVES TO 300 NM W OF TILLAMOOK BY FRI MORNING AND DRIFTS SLOWLY N AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT.
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON

930 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2003

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
TODAY...S WIND 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON... WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 3 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... W SWELL 3 FT AT 10 SECONDS.
THU...S WIND 15 KT...RISING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON... WIND WAVES 4 FT. SW SWELL 5 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT... WIND WAVES 5 FT... SW SWELL 6 FT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SAT...S WIND 15 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... W SWELL 5 FT
SUN...S WIND 15 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... W SWELL 4 FT

Always proceed with caution when the wind is from the South. The only time I was ever "Concerned" in Tillimook bay there was a South wind.
The front that is forecast for Friday is predicted to be West of Tillimook and likely to blow up to 25 Knots.
Couple that with a minus tide at Tillimook Bay and there is reason for concern.
Be careful my brothers and sisters. They are only fish. They will only get bigger if we have to wait a day....
Know what to expect and what your vessle and crew are capable of before you go.

[ 08-06-2003, 04:03 PM: Message edited by: Mr. Fisherman ]

Mr. Fisherman · 08-06-2003, 08:46 AM

Also, Saturday in Newport low tide is right during the time we usually depart the dock, 5:06 a.m. It is not a big exchange but it is a minus tide. Maybe I'll sleep in an extra hour to miss the ebb?
Just a thought...

Sturgeon Tom · 08-06-2003, 09:38 AM

Help me out. I went to the NOAA site you have. On Thurs I read wind 5 to 15 from the south. I can't find 25 at at all. Where are you finding wave height?
Also I found this on Hazardous outlook,
FLUS46 KPQR 061303
HWOPQR
ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-071230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON

530 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

I am trying to understand what is a bad weather report. To me this doesn't look bad Please help me out.
st

Sturgeon Tom · 08-06-2003, 02:05 PM

I did that is where I got the No Hazardous weather part. I clicked on the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
That is why I asked the question as to where is the bad weather report coming from and where, becouse I can't find it, are they getting the wave heights?
st

Mr. Fisherman · 08-06-2003, 03:11 PM

Tom, sorry for the confusion. The low pressure system is forecasted to push onshore Thursday The wind is forecasted to increase to 25 knots from the South Thursday night and Friday then weaken Saturday.
I have seen these be dead wrong and I have seen them right on. I just wanted to give a heads up because of my limited experience in those conditions in that location. That's all.
I don't claim to know everything and I am not saying that the sky is falling. What I am saying is make sure you make use of the available data and be safe out there.

Badger · 08-06-2003, 07:08 PM

Tom,

Where are you finding that hazardous weather outlook link you're referring to? Did you hit the link in the top post that says "NOAA Forecast for the Newport Area"? It gives the information that follows below in that post.

The bad weather forecast part is the "Small Craft Advisory" and in particular, the detailed wind and swells for Thursday night through Saturday -- with wind waves 4-5 feet and swells 5-6 feet. Those can make for pretty darn sloppy conditions and if the winds pick up a bit more and they get 1-2 feet higher than predicted when you're a ways off shore... well you're in for a pretty uncomfortable ride.

If you don't have a feeling for what those conditions are like, take my word for it they're not very nice. This weekend (late Thurs through late Sat in particilar) probably isn't a good weekend to venture out for the first time. BE SAFE! :smile:

Another place to find very similar info is on the WX channel of your VHF radio, Mr. Computerhead reads off of this site in their continuous weather broadcasts.

Mr. Fisherman · 08-06-2003, 11:16 PM

Tom, Just click on the link at the top of the first post.

corrirod · 08-07-2003, 07:46 AM

Tom,

Take it from me, anymore than 3ft. wind waves, no matter what the swell is, is uncomfortable in any boat under 40 ft. I've been caught out in 5 ft. wind waves and it ain't pretty.

You'll find that most of the experienced ocean captains use the rule of 10. Wind waves + swell equal less than 10ft. In this equation 10 is the absolute max you want to be in. There are variables to the equation also. Interval between waves is a big one. You could have 2 ft. of swell but if it's really close together you'll get banged up. Ideally you want an interval that well exceeds the swell height. For instance 5 ft. swell at 8 seconds. The smaller the interval the more pounding your going to take.

Other factors are wind and swell direction. If they are in anyway opposing you will experience extreme discomfort.

Tidal exchange is a big factor for your bar crossings. If you have 10ft. seas already and there is a large tidal forecast then you'll likely have a horrible bar crossing. Example Taki Tooo.

The tidal forecast is bad enough this weekend for Garibaldi but with the added high seas it may be extremely dangerous.

As was stated above, if this is anyone's first chance at trying the ocean, you may want to try another day.

I volunteered to take two ifishers out Saturday but looking at the forecasts I think we'll pass on the Tilly Bar and look at a beach launch in Pacific City. If the forecast gets any worse for ocean conditions the trip will be cancelled all together and I'll reschedule for another day to take them out when we can all enjoy ourselves out there and not get beat up or killed.

The last thing we need to hear at the Ifishstock party is that "one of our own" went down. Nobody, I repeat Nobody , needs to lose a life over a fishing trip this weekend.

Be safe, use your head, and I'll see you at the party!

Mr. Fisherman · 08-07-2003, 10:44 AM

Well put Rod, Thanks :smile:

corrirod · 08-07-2003, 03:10 PM

Looks like they just downgraded it to 3/3 which is very doable if the bar cooperates.

Won't know......till we go I guess!

dewfish · 08-07-2003, 05:18 PM

I came back in last Saturday when it was messy, There where alot of people out but i also heard of alot of ill fisherman. Better safe than sorry, Just a couple of days and lake pacific will be flattend out again.