Would you go?

Pilar · 07-17-2003, 08:36 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON

930 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2003

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
TODAY...N WIND 15 KT RISING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON... WIND WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FT. W SWELL 4 FT AT 7 SECONDS.
TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT...BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WIND WAVES 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.. NW SWELL 5 FT AT 6 SECONDS. AREAS OF FOG.
FRI...NW WIND 15 KT...RISING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON... WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 4 FT AT 6 SECONDS. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SAT...NW WIND 15 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... NW SWELL 4 FT... PATCHY FOG.
SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... NW SWELL 4 FT
SUN...N WIND 20 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... W SWELL 6 FT
MON...NW WIND 20 KT... WIND WAVES 3 FT... W SWELL 6 FT

After last weekends beating off Depoe, I am wary of this forecast .... Especially the 6 seconds wave period on Friday.

There is no shortage of recent tuna kills and the fish are there. Do I drag up and head to the beach, try to fish 1/2 a day and beat the wind and/or B.S. NOAA forecast or stay home and prep for next time?

Short chop sucks and I'm ready for a flat day trip!!!

Popeye · 07-17-2003, 08:39 AM

Yea! I'm goin Sat :grin:

Lepper · 07-17-2003, 08:43 AM

common sense tells me to just stay off the ocean until we get some nice seas again.. But then again some people aren't known for there common sense..
:grin:

Popeye · 07-17-2003, 08:45 AM

Lepper...You talkin ta me

:grin:

Tacklebuster · 07-17-2003, 08:51 AM

I am going to bag the tuna [img]graemlins/idea.gif[/img] and just plan on an sunrise bar crosssing at Newport to chase salmon for a couple of hours before the winds pick up on Friday. I don't know if I buy the 6 seconds but I would hate to find out the hard way 20 miles offshore :shocked:

Miss B Haven · 07-17-2003, 08:53 AM

These forecasts suck. If it was better or worse, easy choice. This is the "edge" and if correct is doable but real bumpy and not fun. Question is, will it really be like that or not? If not, better or worse?
One thing to note is that the forecast is worse on both sides of Saturday. I'd say the odds are they have it right or it might be worse on Sat but what do I know? [img]graemlins/stupid.gif[/img]

Since I have a pump to put in it makes my decision a little easier, I'm hangin on the dock which means it will be like a mirror! [img]graemlins/berry.gif[/img]
Maybe some Sunday morning Salmon if it isn't to dang bumpy!

Bait O' Eggs · 07-17-2003, 09:22 AM

Hmmmmmmmm.......

Considering I have an invite to go tuna fishing Saturday and I dont have other commitments I am going tuna fishing.

Unless it looks bad at first light, or the forecast worsens before the weekend it looks like I get beat up a little bit this weekend.

Some guys dont get many chances to go experience the tuna and if it leaves a mark to get the fix, I guess it leaves a mark. As long as we get back in one piece

I think I wont mind the chop/slop.

Well at least to much

Team Tuna Rookie - Since we havent brain spiked a tuna, I guess after the first few holes in the head we will get it right and if not, the fish whacker should turn out the lights,

and if we cant find the right spot to cut behind the fins to bleed them, we will cut their entire head off to get an artery bleeding

packing in ice I can figure out, filleting is just a matter of time. check check and double check, I think we got it covered.

CATCH AND EAT · 07-17-2003, 09:27 AM

Well, I'd look at it for salmon but not Tuna. Just a bit bumpy for me.

Prediction for the CR bouy for Sunday is 6' swells and 3' chop with 15 wind. Not the most comfortable ride there either.

Why do we always get that dang high pressure on the weekends?

Popeye · 07-17-2003, 09:47 AM

Pilar....did you get my e-mail

skein · 07-17-2003, 10:47 AM

This is a good thread. It lets us newbies evaluate where we fit in the experience equation and make a better decision about go / no go.

I most likely wouldn't go. I would have a new boat that I would still be learning, with new electronics that haven't been tested that far off-shore, etc, etc. Couple that with questionable weather conditions, and you have some red flags flying.

I intend to pick my days, build experience, gain confidence in my ride and my ability, and gradually extend my range and comfort level.

Skein

Sea Jypzee · 07-17-2003, 10:58 AM

I'll likely be out there Saturday. A couple of friends coming down for the trip, and unless it's just too uncomfortable for them, will be going. Sea Jypzee can handle the seas well...just a matter of the occupants handling it.

CATCH AND EAT · 07-17-2003, 12:10 PM

My buddy Mike was out of Tilly this morning. Beautiful ocean and bar on the way out. Bar was sticky on the way back in at 7:30 am.

Miss B Haven · 07-17-2003, 12:22 PM

Back in at 7:30, guess that tells it all!

:grin:

Pilar · 07-17-2003, 01:00 PM

Thanks, Lepper, I love you man .......

OceanBlue · 07-17-2003, 01:30 PM

In case you missed my post on LIG a few months back, Common Sense died.

Let's go fishin' (Mel's working on the boat, it'll be like a mirror :grin: )

Sea Jypzee · 07-17-2003, 01:43 PM

Quote:

But then again I can get up at 5 drive 2 min. look at the ocean and if it looks good grab the boat and be in the water in another 10 min.. if not I go back to bed... oh the torture of being so close to the beach..

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">I feel your pain. It's not easy being this close to the ocean. I mean, I actually have to go over the hill to be able to see what the ocean is doing.

Streetwalker · 07-17-2003, 02:54 PM

The latest Sat forecast has eased off to 3'& 3'. Sun. forecast has backed off some too!!

[ 07-17-2003, 03:54 PM: Message edited by: Streetwalker ]

Burner · 07-17-2003, 04:06 PM

Maybe some of the Ifishers who live on the coast could give us weather and swell reports (with the appropriate disclaimer of course

) and post it here on a pinned thread. Its one thing to read the forecast and look at the cameras, but an eyewitness account of conditions the night before is much more valuable. I know conditions change, but at least we could compare the forecast to actual conditions and develop a feel for the accuracy of the NOAA report. Many people report back (thank you) after a trip, but the threads are spread out. Just my 2 cents.

James

[ 07-17-2003, 05:08 PM: Message edited by: Burner ]

Myles · 07-17-2003, 05:43 PM

It sucks !!! I went on a really good forcast day and got the crap beat out of me, now I'm really reluctant to go down on iffy forecasts, but then I see posts of flat ocean on days where the forcast is questionable. It's really frustrating. I've said that I wont go again unless I can spend a few days down at the coast, and decide daily.
Now the forcast is improving and I still here.

myles

Fishing Dispatcher · 07-17-2003, 06:01 PM

Got to at least drive over and take a look at it.They have in the past said 1 to 3 foot wave and I swear they were 4 to 8 maybe they will be wrong the other way this time.

Miss B Haven · 07-17-2003, 07:40 PM

Burner - just check the bouy reports. Real time accurate. :smile:

wak'm&stak'm · 07-17-2003, 08:00 PM

It is going to be a so so day....just dumpy now....

Remember...this is JULY.....we got 2 more months at least. We have our years supply already...

So I am just going to lay back and enjoy the great days...

Mello-Yello · 07-17-2003, 09:18 PM

Call it self-centered, but I just love it when the ocean yucks up on a weekend that I'm out of town. State 3D tournament is this weekend in Wilsonville. I'll be there till Sunday, then puddle-jumping around WA and ID till next Thursday. She oughta be blown over by then... :grin:

As for Pilar's question, here's my perspective.

Best case scenario, the forecasts are wrong and it's a beautiful day on Big Blue. Those who made other plans cuss the forecasters.

Likely scenario, forecasters are relatively accurate. Those who go get kicked around a bit and bring home some deserved tuna. Those who chose to stay home question their decision.

Worst case scenario, forecasters are wrong, and it's worse than predicted. Those that make it out 20 miles before the seas turn, wonder how they could have been so stupid to put themselves and their crew in this situation. Those that stayed home smerk at their above average intelligence. (like they really knew)

Glad I don't have to decide...c'mon August!!!

M-Y

graybeard · 07-17-2003, 09:31 PM

Worst case scenario.. the forecasters are wrong and it is worse than predicted.... lives are lost!

It just isn't worth it for a durned fish.

I like the odds stacked more in my favor.

Clarity · 07-17-2003, 09:35 PM

Personally, I wouldn't, but I'm in a 20' open bow sled. One thing to remember when comparing this forecast to last weekend was that everything last weekend was out of the south. This weekend it's from the NW, so even if it gets bad out there it's easier to ride it on in, provided you fish NW of your port.

Lepper · 07-17-2003, 09:46 PM

Well you want a real time forcast.... Here it is LIVE from Bandon ORegon approx. 1/2 mile from the beach..

Wind? THERE IS NO WIND!
Fog?? nope.

Ocean?? it's dark but there isn't any breakers in the bar. that's always a good sign..

Soo Up I go at 5 a.m. to look at it and decide.. boat or bed.. ummmmmmm

Thick-N-Thin · 07-17-2003, 09:51 PM

I think Mellow-Yellow has it right on! So True! Now if you could just forcast! :smile:

Pilar · 07-17-2003, 11:02 PM

Bruce, I sent a reply.

This is so hard. I know we can do it but the margin is small. The weather forecast may be totally off as so often happens. Since I do not trust NOAA or their < 50% accuracy rate I have to see it to believe it. My passenger on Saturday is a pretty cautious guy and we will make the decision together whether to drive west or not at first light. Maybe we can even chat the weather around amongst the captains in the launch parking lot as we all discussed in another thread.

I will have a much easier time of it if I bail on a trip at the beach than if I sit at home and hear later ....

You should have been here yesterday.

Popeye · 07-17-2003, 11:08 PM

Pilar....I replied...Soooo You, Jen, and Bluebeast Sat

crabbait · 07-17-2003, 11:16 PM

Skein - You are reading my mind, again. Thanks guys for helping us soon-to-bes interpret the forecasts.

Anxious to see how it turns out, since the boat has no windows, swimstep, door, helm(s), seats, electronics, trailer, or bottom paint and my kicker motor is still in Canada!

Miss B Haven · 07-17-2003, 11:22 PM

Crabbait, your kicker motor's going to be saying:

Want me to start...Eh?
Want me to turn..Eh?
Want me to slow down..Eh?

Eh?
:grin:

Gus Orviston · 07-17-2003, 11:36 PM

Bleck,,,sounds like last Sunday and we took well over 10 gallons into the boat form all side it seemd. Sloppy sloppy.

Unless the fishing was good to great I would wait. But like our mascot roy says, not many of us get to Tune 'a' Fish.

Ba-dump-ba

Lepper · 07-17-2003, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Popeye:
Lepper...You talkin ta me :grin:

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">It was in reference to the originator of the thread.... But i guess it could be pointed at more then one person though...

now take in mind if the forecast "is" correct I will be after some salmon. But then again I can get up at 5 drive 2 min. look at the ocean and if it looks good grab the boat and be in the water in another 10 min.. if not I go back to bed... oh the torture of being so close to the beach..

Popeye · 07-17-2003, 11:41 PM

:shocked: :shocked: :shocked: :shocked: :shocked: :shocked:

BUGLEMAN · 07-17-2003, 11:52 PM

I would stay home and get things in order. That high pressure system that is sliding up here is very strong and is what is going to be driving these winds. The predictions/models are concurrening. Don't count on the weather dudes missing the forcast, I think she is going to blow.

You will know they are wrong if things start to turn over (ie high pressure moves east) but it is a little late for that.

Time to do the laundry list and prep for greater days.

Sea Jypzee · 07-18-2003, 05:24 AM

Today
NW wind 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 3 ft at 7 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning.
Tonight
NW wind 15 kt...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 3 ft at 7 seconds...becoming SW at 3 ft and 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat
NW wind 10 kt...rising to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft. SW swell 4 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat Night
NW wind 15 kt...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. SW swell 4 ft.
Sun
NW wind 10 kt...becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Sun Night
N wind 20 kt...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Mon
N wind 25 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Tue
N wind 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 7 ft.

Well, here's the forcast for this morning. As for yesterday, the wind did come up, but not as bad as they'd predicted. The ocean never did turn very bad. Looks like it could be a decent weekend for some tuna fishing.

Pilar · 07-18-2003, 07:20 AM

It's looking better all the time :grin:

OceanBlue · 07-18-2003, 07:21 AM

Yeah, but it is pretty narrow. I like the forecast, but not the trend.

Miss B Haven · 07-18-2003, 07:40 AM

Have no fear, as you said Jen... since I commited myself to working on Das Boot Saturday it will be bluebird day out there! 4 on 14? Won't even know that's there, the chop will be the only thing to slow ya down, but as I said, proly won't even come up!

Now Sunday, that's different since I'm planning on getting out for some pink meat and check out my autopilot!
:shocked:

OceanBlue · 07-18-2003, 08:06 AM

Yeah, 14 seconds period is great, but what happens when there's a NW wind and SW swells? Doesn't that make it really mixed up and ugly?

DriftR · 07-18-2003, 08:21 AM

Went offshore 12-14 miles yesterday. Wind and chop came up. Nasty seas. We turned back due East and opted for salmon closer in. The chop and seas were heavy out there. We didn't connect with any albies but limited on coho in close and lost a nice nook right at the boat.

Born to be Wild · 07-18-2003, 02:41 PM

Not a breeze untill 10:00am and then only a light wind.

Currently at 3:40pm it is 10-15 kts out of the NW.

Not too many sheep out there.

Dan

Born to be Wild · 07-18-2003, 02:58 PM

Hey is the Pilar out there today? Coast Guard chopper keeps buzzing my roof. :grin:

Guess I better get back to pouring lead.