Those are great questions Woody. You need to be prepared as much as the captains need to be prepared. I feel horrible about those folks who parished today, and the worst part about it is they probably had no idea what to expect or even imagined any danger.
There are alot of things that have to be looked at and UG pointed them out on my "Let us learn" thread. Not only do we look at the wave forecast but we must also look at the tides, the weather, wind direction, etc.. As UG pointed out, there wasn't much else they could've stacked against themselves this morning. Not that it couldn't be done, just that it was far from the best conditions to go out in.
That being said, the current forecast is stating that Thursday is at 3ft. chop / 5 ft. swell. As NorRivDave said, under 10 combined is best but there are other factors. A 3ft. chop is very uncomfortable in a small boat. Not unsafe, just uncomfortable. Therefore you could technically have 3 and 3 seas but still not want to go out because your going to get beat up. Also, wind direction/speed play a huge part. Wind going against the swell creates steep chop/swell making it even more uncomfortable. Typically however the forecasts are based on worse case scenarios, and those scenarios are more likely to come to fruition later in the afternoon when winds pick up. Most people leave very early in the morning because there is usually less wind and less chop. The captain has to decide when to come back though and decide what his vessel/crew can handle.
I would guess to say that if the forecast holds we'll be dancing. Looking at the tide graphs for next week, Thursday appears to be the worst of the 3 days however not bad in terms of our schedules. Most people will be heading out in the very early morning hours, which in the case of the tides this weekend, will be at or near high tide. Low tide will occur mid-day so most will return after that during the incoming tide. Thursday has a tide exchange,
from high to low , of about 7.8 ft. of water which is fairly significant but to compare it to today's tide they went out on an almost 11ft. tide right during the ebb. That's 11 ft. of water moving out of the bay! :shocked: At max ebb that current coming out of Tillamook Bay was moving at 4.5 knots/hr.! :shocked:
Ideal conditions would be that you cross the bar on an incoming tide. The reason for this is because the "ocean" water then has no resistance to fight to get into the bay, vs. when the tide is going out and water is flowing out of the bay while "ocean" water is trying to get into the bay.
The tidal trend improves thru the Hali season and by Saturday the tide exchange is around 5 ft., which by this captains opinion is AWESOME!
So we've got the tides in our favor, now we just need Mother Nature to cooperate and stay settled down.
I hope that helps. I'm sure there are better people on this board who can explain it much clearer.
Keep your fingers crossed and I hope to see you out there!
Woody
Halibut fishing ocean conditions?
Linear Mode
