Sea Temps - the big picture

Mark Mc · 05-30-2003, 06:12 AM

We've been talking & wondering about the implications of sea surface temperatures lately. Here are a few more thoughts.

What we know:
(1) There has been a warmer-than-usual plume off central OR for days now. (2) There has been clear water with little to no feed in it, at least up high. (3) The reports from Mark (Assassin) & others say the commercial salmon guys are getting their fish down deep.

I've been looking at most of the usual sources of data this last week. My ameteur assessment is that there is a strong current from the SW providing this huge push of warm water towards the NE.

You can see it in the light green here:

Here's a closer in image.
Note the area between Pt Conception & The Oregon border in blue; they still have cold water along the coast, especially Pt Reyes to Cape Mendocino. Guess what? From Monterey to to Ft Bragg in N. CA they continue to see great upwelling, with the plankton blooms & krill, and salmon so stuffed they are puking krill when they hit the deck. Note that this plume hits land in Southern Oregon. Off our coast is where the battle is taking place. When you look at the daily temperature shots (Terrafin, Coastwatch) you do see pockets of cold water here & there. The NW wind blows on & off. But there is so much warm water being pushed NE, the "normal" NW wind & southerly surface current don't have enough energy to overcome it and cause the upwelling cycle (which brings nutrients up from the way-deep).

This image shows temperature anomalies. Color coding shows temperature deviation from the average of the surrounding area. Note the yellow & amber areas. Down south these areas are further off shore. Up here it's in close.

If this strong push from the south continues, in the same direction, then we could indeed have early tuna conditions. But at the same time, it may prevent a strong upwelling cycle that we want for good salmon fishing. I don't think we can have it both ways.

Who will win the battle: Husky / Beaver / Duckbreath, or the Tropical Express? Stay tuned....

fish assassin · 05-30-2003, 07:03 AM

Mark,

Speaking of upwellings ...

There was a segment on OPB last night (Oregon Field Guide) that talked about
the upwellings and nutrient rich waters last summer off the Central Oregon
coast. They were saying that there were soooo many nutrients coming from
the deep, offshore waters that there was a planktin bloom that depleted all
the oxygen from the water and caused a massive sea life die-off! It is refered to
by the science guys (ya know, the smart ones) as a "dead zone". It was a pretty
incredible segment. Showed *lots* of dead ling cod laying on the botttom.

This "dead zone" was found by accident by the crew of the Elaka (sp?) ... the
research ship out of Newport. Perry from up Depoe Bay way is the captain and
he was telling us about it last summer. Didn't really have much impact on me
until I saw the pictures last night. WOWZERS!!

If anybody gets a chance to see the replay of Oregon Field Guide this weekend,
I would HIGHLY recommend it!

-assAssin-

[ 05-30-2003, 08:03 AM: Message edited by: fish assassin ]

OceanBlue · 05-30-2003, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pilar:
Flash, Saturday May 31, 2003 ....

A small blue boat returned to Depoe Bay with several Albacore tuna on board, the first landed in Oregon in 2003.

When asked where the fish were caught the blood splattered man and woman pointed to the west and replied in unison

"Out on the Ocean".

They then grinned and with dazed and daffy looks firmly entrenched on their faces, they parked the boat by the fish cleaning station and unloaded the catch.

The name on the boat was 'PILAR'.

:shocked:

northriver1 · 05-30-2003, 07:13 AM

DR. Mark, when did you receive your PHD?

Nofish · 05-30-2003, 07:56 AM

Mark,
Those are cool maps...thanks for sharing them. As you probably know, I too have been closely watching this through Terrafin. The key to all of this is this current plume is "connected".

The other good news is from Cape Blanco south, we are seeing what I would call "normal" spring weather - north winds, upwelling etc. As of right now, I think the first tuna will come from the southern Oregon coast where this warm current pushes against an area impacted by upwelling. That's where the bait will be. I can see it now, big schools of sauries and sardines, birds, pacific white sided dolphins...and ALBACORE!

Can't wait. Nofish

Pilar · 05-30-2003, 08:26 AM

Mark, the water I am seeing so far this year is very clear and devoid of plankton blooms. So far no huge schools of baitfish offshore and the temperature is above normal.

I hope the battle of the winds is won soon and the norwester sets in to put things right. Or we could be catching 'Depoe Bay Tuna' (Mackeral) and using them for live tuna bait. The Church of the Bent Rod could experience a revival offshore as salmon fishermen convert to the one true faith.

Can I get an AMEN?

OceanBlue · 05-30-2003, 08:28 AM

Amen, brutha!

Mark Mc · 05-30-2003, 08:39 AM

Hi Northriver1, how are things at "the world's greatest bank?" No PhD for me, just a wannabe oceanographer like so many others on this board.

Nofish - good to hear things look more "normal" down south. Any update on how the commercial trollers are doing down there?

Whatever happens this summer, it's bound to be interesting.

Nofish · 05-30-2003, 05:02 PM

Hey Mark,
I really haven't heard much about how the commercial guys are doing. We did have some decent weather last weekend and the fish were still out quite a ways - 8-14 miles to the outside temp break(Terrafin works great for salmon chasing also). Tons of fish to the south...the guys out of Eureka and Trinidad have been clobbering 'em. They'll be headed our way soon. Stay tuned...Bob

Mark Mc · 05-30-2003, 05:56 PM

Thanks for that, Nofish Bob. So where do you hail from & fish most of the time? I went to that thar college in Arcata long ago. Many inland trips up Hwy 299 to the Trinity, Lewiston, etc. You up that way somewhere?

Nofish · 05-31-2003, 04:59 AM

Mark,
An HSU guy...were you a fisheries major? I have lots of buddies that spent their formative years there.

Well, the nearest town of any note from where I am is Yreka, CA (I actually live almost equal distance from Ashland, Oregon). We around these parts prefer to call it "Baja Oregon". I don't usually range much further south than Crescent City and primarily fish Brookings and Gold Beach.

This plume of current we are drooling over has generated a fair amount of discussion from the Bay Area tuna guys. They are feeling if they can get the weather to lay down, they will be able to get to it and perhaps find fish. Stay tuned for that...Bob

05-31-2003, 07:02 AM

Mark,
I have to dispute your findings here unless you back it up with a link :grin:

Sensei-san · 05-31-2003, 07:19 AM

Keta,

Did you say:

Mark,

I have to dispute your findings here unless you back it up with a wink????

http://polar.wwb.noaa.gov/sst/nepac_sst_oper0.gif

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Monterey/sstmaps/sst1.gif

Are a good start. The Navy sites are availible but you have to dig to get to them.

Looks like tuna in a couple of weeks.

Mark Mc · 05-31-2003, 10:39 AM

Dearest Keta, are you being a "troll" today? If I were to even take you seriously, I would ask:

1) are you disputing my interpretations (which have no web links) or

2) are you disputing the validity of the color maps above (yea, I painted them in my spare time) and you want a link to them?

If you want the links, you'll have to say "please." Now out of the sandbox until you find your manners.

There, you got a rise out of me. See ya,

Mark

05-31-2003, 01:53 PM

:grin:

Mark Mc · 05-31-2003, 03:08 PM

Hi Rod,

Lee and I are cool with each other via prior arrangement. I thought he might be jivin' me so I played along. Here they are:

navy sea temp vanouver island to mexico

navy sea temp anomalies

navy sea temp - east pacific

p.s. Rod, I didn't download any special viewer; this is the way it shows up on our XP system. BTW, you're doing a great job as moderator already!

p.p.s Nofish Bob - not a fisheries major, but I did take a few fisheries / fish biology classes; just enough to be dangerous at an ODFW hearing!

[ 05-31-2003, 04:14 PM: Message edited by: Mark Mc ]

Pilar · 05-31-2003, 03:18 PM

Thanks Mark, interesting stuff. Look at Stonewall temps today, much cooler.

[ 05-31-2003, 04:18 PM: Message edited by: Pilar ]

corrirod · 05-31-2003, 03:23 PM

Thanks for the links Mark, I was at the right site I just didn't dig far enough to find the ".GIF" files.

Now if they'd just put where the fish were on there we'd be set! :grin:

corrirod · 05-31-2003, 11:02 PM

Mark,

Lee's just trying to get you to fork out the link to your cool SST's.

I succeeded in finding the site on the web but I want to ask you which viewer software you are using? I downloaded a free demo of the Winfli program. It allows you to change the size but it doesn't allow you to stop or slow the images. I tried to download another program but the link was bad. I don't want to pay $25 for Winfli but maybe you could suggest a better one, PLEASE ? [img]graemlins/1zhelp.gif[/img]

Nofish · 06-01-2003, 04:43 AM

Mark,
Check out yesterday's Terrafin "free shot" of NoCal:

http://terrafin.com/sstview/samples/freenorcal.htm

It was a daytime shot which means the sun has added a degree or two, HOWEVER...it is sure beginning to remind me of last summer. Bob

Sensei-san · 06-01-2003, 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pilar:
Mark, the water I am seeing so far this year is very clear and devoid of plankton blooms. So far no huge schools of baitfish offshore and the temperature is above normal.

I hope the battle of the winds is won soon and the norwester sets in to put things right. Or we could be catching 'Depoe Bay Tuna' (Mackeral) and using them for live tuna bait. The Church of the Bent Rod could experience a revival offshore as salmon fishermen convert to the one true faith.

Can I get an AMEN?

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helv">Pilar... Is this what you are looking for?

TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. WIND WAVES 5 FT. NW SWELL 7 FT AT 10 SECONDS.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 FT. NW SWELL 7 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 FT. NW SWELL 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT...EASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. WIND WAVES 5
FT. NW SWELL 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. WIND WAVES 5 FT. NW SWELL 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. N SWELL 5 FT.

I owe PM a lunch... When does she want to collect?

I revise my prediction to within two weeks....

Nofish · 06-01-2003, 06:22 AM

I am ready to go looking as soon as the ocean lays down - will probably run out of Brookings or Crescent City. Stay tuned...Bob

06-01-2003, 08:39 AM

Mark,

Now if I can figure out how to overlay the temp chart on the nav charts I can play around with trying to reduce the area to target. :smile:

Nofish · 06-01-2003, 08:49 AM

Keta,
Terrafin has slick new feature with their pay-to-view SST maps. Just point the mouse arrow to the spot and you get the Lat-Long. Pretty cool.

OceanBlue · 06-02-2003, 06:36 AM

Sensei, no need to buy me lunch. Just show up to the next TA meeting, wouldja?! I'd like to finally meet you, dang it! And I'm sure you have great experiences to share with the dogs.

Deal?