What do you all think?

seasquid · 05-15-2002, 02:57 PM

Okay all you "crazy" halibut dudes -- looks like another two days of going out and taking a look and then making a decision.

I'd like to see that swell come down a foot or two for Friday, but as long as the wind isn't blowing like last week....

What's everybody thinking?

ss

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM
330 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2002

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING CAPE FALCON TO FLORENCE...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT CAPE FALCON TO FLORENCE WITH EVENING
GUSTS TO 25 KT...AND 15 KT ELSEWHERE. WIND DECREASING SHORTLY
AFTER DARK THEN BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WIND
WAVES 4 FT...EASING TO 2 FT OVERNIGHT. SW SWELL 5 FT AT 15
SECONDS.
.THU...W WIND TO 15 KT...EXCEPT SW 10 KT N OF CASCADE HEAD IN THE
MORNING. WIND WAVES TO 3 FT. SW SWELL 6 FT AT 14 SECONDS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. W SWELL 7 FT AT 13
SECONDS. RAIN LIKELY N AND A CHANCE OF RAIN S.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. W SWELL 8 FT. A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 1 OR 2 FT. W SWELL 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SW SWELL 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. SW SWELL 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FT. SW SWELL 6 FT.

Pilar · 05-15-2002, 03:24 PM

Seasquid, and NorRivDave .. Man, I want to go so bad, but I'm hating the forecast. The wind in your face when we go out and at your back when we come in ... that is good. If the wind is no higher than the 15kt from the west it could work, but we are right at the misery index of 10. Any bigger than that and you will be miserable, guaranteed.

The damn swells are big, too big. I am planning on checking in with my crew and deciding after the 21:30 update. And another look at 09:30 tomorrow morning. We may well go down there tomorrow and just come home Friday if it is as bad as it looks. Maybe we can get some killer bait as a fallback on Friday if we can't get out.

Wait and see my friends, that is where we are at, wait and see.

Wak'm & Stak'm, how about a MkI eyeball and a report on what is happening with the ocean?

seasquid · 05-15-2002, 03:41 PM

Since I'm one of those Garibaldi guys -- to add to the swell you have a fairly significant tide running Friday and Saturday -- which equats to "uninspected commercial and pleasure craft less than 28 feet are not permitted to cross the Tillamook Bay bar."

By the way, this gives you a good idea of what's going on -- I use the Oceanside vantage a lot.

http://www.kgw.com/livecams/livecams_or_p3.html

ss

wak'm&stak'm · 05-15-2002, 03:58 PM

I am still hopeful...I see the other report calling for 6 ft swells,

There were a few white caps by 10am this morning and the slop had a little backbone to them, but as the day progressed it looks more like that summertime NW'er.
I was just counting how long a whitecap stays up and most are under 3 seconds, for sure it would be a bumpy ride right now, but the drift is what would stink.
If I hadn't let a friend borrow my digital, I would take a picture and show you.

Personally I still have a good felling, at least the chicken bones are saying yes, and the sea gulls are wiggling there tails, and we all know that is a good sign [img]graemlins/eek13.gif[/img]
Things are going to change tomorrow.......everytime they have called for a sw or west wind this year it has been pretty nice...
I will post at first light tomorrow..."or when weather or bar conditions change", (isnt that what they say on the Coast guard recording?

AngleThis · 05-16-2002, 01:22 PM

I'm with Pilar. 10ft combined seas is sounding just a little too hariball for me, espeically since I've probably pushed my luck far enough for this month.

If the wind drops to 10 or the swells drop at least 2 feet, I'll reconsider, but as it stands now I'll probably have to let the fish live.

wak'm&stak'm · 05-16-2002, 01:31 PM

the sad part is, as I look out the window, you could water ski out there right now....it is a sheet of glass...hhmmmmm???

I am still thinking the swells will not materialize....

Threemuch · 05-16-2002, 01:58 PM

If you look at the offshore buoys, 46005 and such, it's nasty out there. 10' seas 25 kt winds. Inshore buoys, 46029 and 46050 look dreamy. Probably will change as the weather at the offshore buoys comes in.

But I am still taking a look. I plan to cross the bar before the tide changes at 4:30am. Run a couple miles and see what I think.

KB

wak'm&stak'm · 05-16-2002, 03:03 PM

What channel do you usually hang on?

You will be ahead of me by an hour.

I have been watching 002 and 006, which are reading 7 & 8 ft right now. Which I am comfortable with, what is interesting is last weeks forecast bothered me a lot more than this one.

I figure I can always bail out at the south end of the pile if nothing else.

Also...last year....this same weekend there were a bunch of commercial boats about 1/2 south and inside the weather bouy, that were cussing the amount of gear they were loosing to halibut.
I think there are just as good or better areas closer but I haven't taken the time to explore.

Tryin2Fish · 05-16-2002, 04:15 PM

The difference here is the weather front that is rolling tonight. They are forecasting rain in the valley tomorrow and that all comes through the coast first. Its kinda ironic, last week when mark and I headed for newport we got there thursday night and the there was no whitecaps to be seen and the wind was minimal, however look what happened for the next two days.

Anyone that gives it a shot please be careful, and remember the halibut quota is weight not days fished, so if no one catches the weight quota they will open it up later in the season. This is what happened last year, I wonder if odfw is unlucky or they just pick bad weather for the halibut days, that also happened last year.

Be safe, have a brew and live to fish another day.

Jim