Halibut Blitz...

Mr. Fisherman · 05-08-2002, 05:17 AM

The weather started getting rough....

FZUS56 KPQR 081018
CWFPDX

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
330 AM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM.

PZZ250-255-270-275-081630-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM
330 AM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

TODAY
NW WIND 15 KT...BUT 20 KT S OF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND WAVES 3 FT. NW SWELL 4 FT AT 8 SECONDS...BECOMING SW 4 FT
AT 16 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT
N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT S OF NEWPORT EARLY. WIND
WAVES 3 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT AT 16 SECONDS.

THU
NW WIND 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 4 FT AT 10
SECONDS.

THU NIGHT
NW WIND 20 KT...BECOMING W 15 KT N OF NEWPORT. WIND
WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 5 FT.

FRI
W WIND 15 KT...BECOMING NW 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW
SWELL 6 FT.

SAT
NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD. WIND WAVES
5 FT. NW SWELL 6 FT.

SUN
N WIND 10 KT...BECOMING SW 15 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. NW
SWELL 4 FT.

Here we go again......

Be safe out there. Don't be afraid to call a trip due to weather. There is always next week, next month, next year.

Do NOT become Halibut fodder....

Mr. F.

bigtrout · 05-08-2002, 05:59 AM

Are you saying it may to be rough to go out?

Threemuch · 05-08-2002, 08:36 AM

If the weather is too crappy in Newport, we are going to tow up to Garibaldi and try to get out there. Seems like the worse weather is south.
KB

Threemuch · 05-08-2002, 09:54 AM

From your guys experience at Newport, if the forcast calls for NW wind is that usually an afternoon thing? That was my experience in CA. The prevailing NW wind is small in the morning big in the afternoon. S wind or offshore blows all damn day.

Pilar · 05-08-2002, 12:37 PM

Hey guys,
The forecast is for minimal swells 6 feet or less. I would absolutely go there and look at it. This is a pattern at Newport. The afternoon wind show can be avoided by observing the sunrise from 10 miles offshore.

Think of it as a bank robbery, haul @$$ out there, rob the bank and haul @$$ back.

The really interesting thing is Sunday, 3 and 4.

I'm betting on a bumpy ride out and a better ride back. We steer 242 degrees and the wind will be at 270 to 290. 30 to 50 degrees off the starboard all the way out. Much better than head into it.

On the way back steer 55 degrees and the wind will be port and aft. Smooth ride every time. Check the trend. NWS and NOAA disagree on this, they are opposite. NWS predicts improvement and NOAA predicts a down trend.

I'm going to the beach and biting my lip. Let the Ocean decide for us on the day. Waiting for the 1530 update.

Lay down, you Beaaaaaatch!

seasquid · 05-08-2002, 01:00 PM

I agree with Pilar's assessment. Ultimately, you gotta take a look the morning of -- I also have noticed Sunday's forecast, coming down which of course is a nice trend -- maybe we'll get that Saturday.

You know what is going to happen if you call your guests and cancel Threemuch? -- your friends are going to call you and say "you should have been there Friday." Or Pilar is going to be on here saying, "Wow, they sure missed that forecast -- flat, calm, and that 80-pounder I caught was a pretty damn big fish."

Hey, what's the worst that could happen, you spend a couple of days at the Coast. The Rogue brews a really good Dead Guy Ale -- watch it though, it carries a mean kick.

Pilar, I just hope I'm 10 miles out for the sunrise, and not 2!

Good luck to everybody...

ss

Pilar · 05-08-2002, 02:16 PM

Alrighty then ... Check it now ....

Lock and load.FZUS56 KPQR 082136
CWFPDX

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
330 PM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM.

PZZ250-255-270-275-090430-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON
AND WESTWARD 60 NM
330 PM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

TONIGHT
N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT S OF NEWPORT EARLY. WIND
WAVES 3 FT. SW SWELL 4 FT AT 13 SECONDS.

THU
NW WIND 15 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. W SWELL 3 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT
NW WIND 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT.
SHOWERS.

FRI
W WIND 15 KT...BECOMING NW 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW
SWELL 5 FT.

FRI NIGHT
NW WIND 20 KT EASING. WIND WAVES 3 FT. NW SWELL 5
FT.

SAT
NW WIND 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 6 FT.

SUN
NE WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT.

MON
SW WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Weather Service
Generated 2205 UTC, Wednesday, May 08, 2002
Document URL http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtb...&title=Coastal Forecast
Florence to Cascade Head

Pilar · 05-08-2002, 02:57 PM

NWS is more optimistic. The wind at Stonewall is about 17kts right now and showing the typical 5 - 10kts in the morning and windy in the afternoon.

Bouy map here ...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Northwest.shtml

Bouy 46050 is at Stonewall Bank to the north a bit

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pag...$station=46050

Station NWP03 is near the jetties and clearly shows the afternoon wind show.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pag...$station=nwpo3

NWS Forecast

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CWFPDX

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON 330 PM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON AND WESTWARD 60 NM.

PZZ200-090430- .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NE PAC INTO SAT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE TO THE WASHINGTON COAST THU NIGHT. THE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND N THROUGH W OREGON ON SUN.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PZZ250-255-270-275-090430- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WASHINGTON TO FLORENCE OREGON AND WESTWARD 60 NM 330 PM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

.

TONIGHT

N WIND 15 KT

EXCEPT 20 KT S OF NEWPORT EARLY. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SW SWELL 4 FT AT 13 SECONDS. .THU

NW WIND 15 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. W SWELL 3 FT AT 8 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .THU NIGHT

NW WIND 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT. SHOWERS. .FRI

W WIND 15 KT

BECOMING NW 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 5 FT. .FRI NIGHT

NW WIND 20 KT EASING. WIND WAVES 3 FT. NW SWELL 5 FT. .SAT

NW WIND 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW SWELL 6 FT. .SUN

NE WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT. .MON

SW WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. SW SWELL 3 FT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PZZ210-090430- COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FORECAST 330 PM PDT WED MAY 8 2002

IN THE MAIN CHANNEL

COMBINED SEAS 3 FT

EXCEPT NEAR 5 FT DURING THE EBB CURRENTS AROUND 315 PM

TODAY AND 345 AM THU.

[ 05-08-2002, 04:10 PM: Message edited by: Pilar ]

Mr. Fisherman · 05-08-2002, 05:35 PM

Woaaa there!!!

DO NOT CANCEL A TRIP BASED ON NOAA!

ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS go have a look for your self.

Last year we nearly scrubbed the trip based on a similar prediction. We waited and waited for the wind but it never came. We didn't leave the dock till about 10:00 waiting for the early boats to return. As it turned out we decided to go have a look and it was flat as can be with flat seas reported at the ranch. We boated 246 ppppounds on 4 fish that day.

I'm not saying go all the way and see but go look at the bar and check the radio.

This trend is a little backwards cause it calls for the winds to die down in the afternoon. Makes me wonder what's up.

But know this: We will have a look and make a good decision. Neither Pilar or I are afraid to call a trip due to weather. We have done it before and will likely do it again sooner or later.

Hope it is later

See ya at one bar or the other

seasquid · 05-08-2002, 11:00 PM

Threemuch,

The forecast is damn iffy at best. I've been out on the grounds fishing in 20-25 knots before, and it is absolutely no fun. Will the wind drop off during the evening? Most likely -- but enough is the big question? My experience, and I grew up on Tillamook Bay, when you get a NW at the speed it is being predicted, the ocean will still be fairly unsettled at first light. I was out a couple years ago and got caught in that type of wind, it took me nearly three hours to get back in, and we took a beating. You also have to consider that out of T. Bay it is pretty much a straight west/east run -- the Chicken Ranch is a little different story.

I probably didn't give you any information that you don't already know, but I do know one thing, the forecast is brutal for anyone who has anything less than a deep V.

I'm not very optimistic right now, but as all us "Salty Dogs" know -- the forecast can change quite a bit from one day to the next.

hey, there is always spring chinook in the bay or on the jaws if all else fails. And as was posted earlier, there is always tomorrow, next week, next month, etc. I'd trade these two days for a couple in August -- is there anything better than a limit of halibut and a few Albacore?

ss

puffins crew · 05-08-2002, 11:02 PM

The wind usually picks up in the afternoon out of newport, NW is the norm.

It may be a bit bumpy on the way out,but surfing the waves on the way back in is a lot easyer.

Watch out for the commercial crab gear for the first couple of miles. Pay close attention, and be safe.

An early start should provide the best chances for a good trip.

Tom

Threemuch · 05-08-2002, 11:56 PM

I gots the big deep v, but I am not all that interested in a 32 mile run in 25kts of wind. I have people coming in from out of town for this weekend, and I am trying to make a decision to call them off or not. I guess I will check the F-cast at 3 and again at 9 and if it degrades any more call them off.
KB

Orca · 05-09-2002, 05:49 AM

Latest report is down another foot, so the forecast is down at least 2 feet in the last day!

Here we come!

Ramstrong · 05-09-2002, 08:33 AM

FRI
W WIND 15 KT...BECOMING NW 20 KT. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW
SWELL 6 FT AT 5 SECONDS.

FRI NIGHT
NW WIND 20 KT...EASING LATE. WIND WAVES 4 FT. NW
SWELL 5 FT.

SAT
N WIND 20 KT...BUT 25 KT S OF NEWPORT. WIND WAVES 5 FT. NW
SWELL 6 FT.

Verry interesting.
buuut wait there's more

[ 05-10-2002, 08:21 AM: Message edited by: Ramstrong ]

Pilar · 05-09-2002, 09:06 AM

Cool, now explain what we are looking at.....

Ramstrong · 05-09-2002, 09:18 AM

That's the wave height prediction for the North Pacific for Saturday. It reads similar to a topo map, the lines move in 3' increments. The darkest blue represents waves that are less than 3' then you hit the 3' line the second to darkest blue represents waves that are between 3' and 6' then you hit the 6' line. By looking at the chart you can see that pretty much the entire Oregon Coast should have waves between 3-6' on Saturday with with rough stuff to the south and west, and calm waters to nw and nnw by the Queen Charlotte's, the arrow's represent the directions the waves are travelling.

Capt. Rich · 05-14-2002, 07:52 PM

Ramstrong... Ahhh... I don't think so. Try

http://152.80.49.210/products/WAM/npac_swht_072.gif

The FNMOC wave swell predictions are done in ZULU time which is 8 hours ahead of us. I usually look at the all animations toggle. That way you can see the movement of the lows and how they affect the swells that hit us.

Predicting weather this time of year is a *****hoot. To many variables to deal with. Another good site to look at is:

http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/sathts_pac_snd_00.gif

This gives you the pressure gradients. If you see an isobar line running along the coast and close together, watch out! LOTS OF WIND. Isobars spread out, less wind.