A Flood of Biblical Proportions???

[WildHawg]

Well ladies and gentlemen...for the last few days I have been explaining to my wife that I think we could be in for the flood of the century if we get a Chinook Wind.
Well lo and behold, the snow level after Wednesday is going up to 6500 feet, and there is plenty of rain on the way. At 2500 feet, my friend measured 49 inches at his house out of Molalla. A rough guess for fresh snow is 10 inches equals an inch of precipitation. His has been building for 2 weeks, which means that its water content is much higher.
Batten down the hatches folks--I think the poop may hit the fan with this blow.
I sure hope I am full of the aforementioned poop--but I fear, for once, I am not :depressed:

[ampersat]

It's been all the talk in my semi-circle of friends (what can I say, I'm not all that popular). It may not be the big flood of '96 (at least I think it was '96) but the Willy and a lot of the smaller tribs are gonna blow out for sure. Better batten down the hatches and get ready for some sand-bagging for you folks with river front properties. There's a price to pay for being able to fish out in your own back yard.

[WildHawg]

I hope you're right, and it wont be like 96--but the conditions are ripe for a similar, or even--God forbid, worse scenario than February of '96.
I lived through both of the floods of 96--February on the Mckenzie, and November on the Umpqua. Both were 100 year class events. I think this is looking pretty spooky.

[Fishalot]

The whole WORLD is going to flood
Truly I hope it is not to bad, however a small flooding of some rivers could wash out some of the debris or wash in more . I just don't like seeing people loose their homes and have other property lost, not to mention people being killed.


Fishalot

[ 01-05-2004, 07:28 PM: Message edited by: Fishalot ]

[Born to be Wild]

I hope you're right, and it wont be like 96--but the conditions are ripe for a similar, or even--God forbid, worse scenario than February of '96.
I lived through both of the floods of 96--February on the Mckenzie, and November on the Umpqua. Both were 100 year class events. I think this is looking pretty spooky.

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">Hey WildDawg, longtime!

Correction, the November (Thanksgiving Flood) of '96 was actually in '99. :tongue:
See what happens when you start getting old? :grin:

I was up on the NF of the Lewis that turkey day and caught 4 coho in high water.
I was also there the very next day (Friday) and caught 4 more coho in very much higher water. :shocked:

I recall telling some Washigtonians that down where I live (Depoe Bay at the time) we had cows (Happy Cows) :grin: and barns floating down the rivers and here I was up at the Lewis catching late strain coho!

One of the few times I have really appreciated dams.

Dano

[andy-ap emerger]

I do live on water too and with a pregnant wife and a toddler son, the last thing a fellow could ask to deal with is another flood of '96 :depressed:

I hope that everyone is safe & nobody gets too badly shaken up.

"Oh the weather outside is frightful.."
-B Crosby

AP Emerger

[Wood N' Fish]

What happened to the flood of 1964? Or ===the Van Fleet Flood?

[Beefcake]

Anyone know where to get sandbags in Scappoose? I hope we're guessing wrong about the flood potential, but my hiney is starting to pucker. We just moved into our new house in November, and from floodplain maps and aerial photos from '96, it looks like the water was about 10' from the site of our new house. [img]graemlins/1zhelp.gif[/img]

I lived in Clackamas in '96, and I remember helping friends move their belongings out of their homes in a rowboat. I also remember the muddy mess that we had to clean out of their homes once the water went down, and I am horrified at the thought of having to deal with that in our new house. I guess I should have checked the FEMA maps before buying it, huh? [img]graemlins/dork.gif[/img]

[garyk]

One difference this time, versus Feb. 1996, is I believe the Columbia is several feet lower - it's currently about 5' (Vancouver guage). I think at the onset of the '96 flood (which crested at 27.2'/Vancouver)the river was already running up around 10' or 11'.

For reference, the Vanport flood of '48 crested at about 31' - nearly four feet higher.

Beefcake, last time around the fire deparment was giving away bundles of 'em.

[ 01-05-2004, 11:06 PM: Message edited by: garyk ]

[Small Fry]

I pray we don’t have a repeat of the 1996 flood. Our house flooded in Feb of 96. Thank God we had flood insurance. 38k worth of damage and 4 month to rebuild. We had to rent a house while we were making repairs. Had 5 kids going to 3 different schools and none of them were on the bus route where we were living.

If the river starts to rise I won't hesitate to ask for [img]graemlins/1zhelp.gif[/img] help get things to higher ground. At least this year they have Hagg Lake drawn down so a good share of the water will be caught there.

Let's all pray for a slow thaw!

[finclipped]

We are definately "primed" for a flood. I can't remember the last time we had this much snow in the lower elevations (500-2,500ft.) Forecast calls for a moderate amount of rain, but I am guessing we will still see some flooding. If the Pineapple express gets going, were going to see 1996 all over again.

[Born to be Wild]

I haven't been watching the news, but is there a big concern of flooding?

I hope for the sake of people and their homes we don't get a massive flood but also for the sake of our wild fish stocks.

To give you an example of how the '96 flood effected the wild coho up and down the Oregon coast with the exception of the coastal lakes coho, the Yaquina River was slowly rebounding during the El 'Nino years and reached an estimated number of around 5,000 in 1996 if my memory serves me right.
The devastated run of ’97 was estimated to only be a couple hundred fish.
Those were the smolts of '96 (egg/class of ’94) that got washed out prematurely.

‘98’s return was estimated at only a few hundred also and those were the eggs from the ’95 class that were in the gravel when the ’96 flood hit in February.

We would have the same scenario right now if a massive flood occurred and it would effect the 2003 spawners and eggs and also the smolts of the 2002 egg class that will be migrating out in a few months this spring.

Not to mention the devastating effect it has on Chinook also but they don’t get it as bad as the coho.
They don’t put their eggs all in one basket so to speak.
They unlike the coho are spread out at several different intervals when they return so you have different year classes returning every year.
Also unlike the coho the 2002 class Chinook smolts have already migrated out to sea.
They don’t over winter as the coho do.

Hope we don’t have to start all over again!

Dano

[garyk]

Here's a link to a narrative and data for the Flood of '96.

http://www.ocs.orst.edu/reports/flood96/Flood2.html

[Fish_N_Russ]

It will flood, but nothing close to 96. In 96 it had been raining for several days before it snowed, thus the ground was already saturated. Before our recent snow, it was clear for several days. Also in 96 a warm front moved in right after it snowed, the 'pineapple express'.......I dont think the system coming in after this snow is as warm.

[Jennie@ifish]

Fish N Russ kind of explained what I saw on the news last night, of why it won't be a big flood. I hope you guys are right!

I think we'll have a high water event, not sure how big.

Funny, at Freddies, all the women were shopping, "preparing for the flood" while you guys in Portland were all shopping, "Preparing for the snow and ice."

J

[MarlinMark]

Jesus is coming and he is bringing swim fins and a snorkel. :grin: Just kidding folks. I know that he can walk on water.

Mark

[WildHawg]

Well well, if it isn't my old buddy DBD under a new guise! If anybody around here knows about "oldtimers" syndrome Danny Boy--it's you :tongue:
No, the flood of 96 I referred to hit in November, but from about Eugene south. The Umpqua jumped her banks better than any other time except '64. We had trucks, trailers, refriderators, and many boats in the blackberries in front of our home SW of Elkton. We moved in June, only to hit 'em both!!
So...while the temps will be as warm as in '96, and we have an even bigger low elevation snowpack--it looks like the system following our freezeout isn't carrying enough moisture to create a real horrible flood. Thank you Lord
Remember, I am just a junior meteorologist, but the pro's suck--so I'll take my shots at this prediction...coastal streams will take a pretty hard shot, with some flooding, but not of an epic proportion. The Willy and its trib's will reach near flood levels, but remain well below the sea wall at Portland. I think the Columbia looks safe, as it drains so much ground to the east, where there is much less precipitation and it will remain primarily frozen.

[Born to be Wild]

bringing swim fins and a snorkel.

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">

You know according to Rebell, Jesus will have an electric motor on his drift boat. Of course HustlerJim is not too sure about that! :grin:

[Born to be Wild]

Well well, if it isn't my old buddy DBD under a new guise! If anybody around here knows about "oldtimers" syndrome Danny Boy--it's you :tongue:

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">Well, a, I knowed I got it! :grin:
What's your excuse?

No seriously though, my mistake. :blush:
I only remember the Feb flood of '96 and Nov. flood of '99 in that decade. :blush:
Ya mean we had two major floods in the same calender year?
Holy mudslides MadDawg! :grin:

Dano

[Quasimodo the fish killer]

I dont know about you guys up in washington but we flodded in november of 96 and in feb of 97 here

or at least thats what my low lever alzhiemers is tellin me..

I remember back when I was but a wee child having like 3 foot of snow on the ground here in eugene maybe around 1967 or so. I also remember lots of times growing up where we had a foot or so but dont remember any huge flooding at that time.

anyone old enough to remember what happened when that 3 ft of snow melted off?


hopefully we will get lucky and there will be no major flooding.

[HeavyMetal BankFisherman]

I remember the flood of 96. The water was licking at your feet at the waterfront downtown. I have never seen the willamette so high. A thick brown sludge filled with trees and other debris. It was not a good thing.

I agree that we will have some flooding but it should not be anything like 96. I hope.

This weather is a big headache.

[hustlerrjim]

dopey bay dan how are ya??
nov. 96 was the big one ,thanksgiving day
13 inches of rain.
i will be watching for the ark to see if it has an electric motor on it

[rob allen]

If what I just heard was accurate it's gonna make 96 look like nothing. This is waht I heard.

Tomorrow Portland 50 degrees and an inch or rain
Freezing level 10,000 feet..

NWCN has it raining hard till Friday!!! Anyone who was close in 96 better head for higher ground..

[GutshotApe]

Originally posted by Born to be Wild:

I hope for the sake of people and their homes we don't get a massive flood....

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">Yeah Dan, you'd better hope so...because you're living on a bonafide flood plain. The Kalama doesn't have any dams or dikes, either. About 1/2 mile after you start up the river road you will notice a small hump, or bump...a little 50' hill...on your right, not far off the road, with a fairly new house built right on top. Its called Dray's Mound...my great-grandmother was born in the original, long-gone house that sat on top back around 1870. The oldtimers built the house on that mound, and not on the river flat, for a reason!

[Born to be Wild]

Fine, thanks Jim.

I think we all have Alzhiemers.

The beeg one was in February of '96 .
Here is a bit of info from the URL that GaryK posted:

The Great Flood of 1996


by George H. Taylor , State Climatologist

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A series of intense surges of subtropical moisture inundated western Oregon during the period February 5-9. The combination of record-breaking rain, warm temperatures, and a deep snowpack led to severe flooding throughout northern sections of the state. River flood stages were comparable in magnitude to the December, 1964 flood, the largest in Oregon since flood control reservoirs were built in the 1940's and 1950's.

The first precursor to the flooding was an unusually wet winter, causing soils to be saturated and streams and reservoirs to be at high levels. Most of northwest Oregon received at least 125% of normal precipitation for the first four months of the Water Year (October - January). Table 1 lists a few northwest Oregon stations' observed and normal seasonal precipitation for October 1995 - January 1996:

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">I do know that there was another big one in November of '99 and as I stated I was fishing the Lewis River that day.
It was 4 fish a day limits and Turkey day so it has been easy to remember even with my alhiemers. :grin:

The one I don't remember is a November flood in the same year as the big flodd of Feb. '96.
Guess I'll have to see if Google knows. :grin:

Dano

[Born to be Wild]

Here's the one that WildHawg was talking about.
Evidently the Nov. flood of '96 was in the southern part of Oregon and California.
The Nov. flood of '99 hit around the area of the Siletz River and to the north.

Oregon's Wettest Day

Two years ago I testified in a court case, on behalf of the state of Oregon, regarding a mudslide caused by severe flooding. I was asked, "how significant was that rain storm?" I answered, "I believe this was the single wettest day in Oregon this century." If you've been here at least three years you probably remember the event: November 18-19, 1996, three years ago this week.

Autumn had been very wet that year. September was a bit wetter than average, and October almost twice as wet as an average October. In early November, steady rains continued. The rivers were full, the ground was saturated, and snow was already rather deep in the mountains. All the conditions were in place for something big.

Ongoing "La Nina" conditions had produced very warm water in the western Pacific near the tropics. In mid-November a big surge of moisture moved out of the tropics and toward the West Coast. This "subtropical jet stream," as it is known to meteorologists, took aim on the Pacific Northwest.

At the same time, very cold air moved southward from Alaska. Moving over the Gulf of Alaska, it picked up some moisture, but remained quite cold.

The warm and cold air masses met over the Pacific, several hundred miles west of Astoria. Both were deflected eastward. The cold air moved toward Washington and northern Oregon, the warm air toward southern Oregon and northern California.

On the 18th, both air masses came onshore. The cold air brought snow to most of Washington, and parts of northern Oregon; Sea-Tac Airport received 11 inches of snow. Portland also received snow, but just south of Portland was the boundary between the cold and warm air; south of the boundary the temperatures mild and the rain very heavy.

Heavy rain fell for the next 24 hours, from Woodburn to Mt. Shasta. The heaviest rain fell in southern Oregon, along the coast. At the Elk River Fish Hatchery, the one-day total (recorded on the 19th) was 11.65 inches; this was the highest daily total ever recorded at an "official" station in Oregon, breaking the state record by nearly 1.5 inches. There were unofficial reports of daily amounts over 20 inches in the Klamath Mountains of southwest Oregon!

In addition to the record-setting amount, a number of other sites set all-time one-day records. Listed below are some of them (previous records and years set are in parentheses):

Corvallis, 4.45 (4.28, 1965) - Corvallis data go back to 1889!
Bandon, 6.25 (5.61, 1987)
Madras, 3.07 (1.71, 1995)
North Bend, 6.67 (5.60, 1981)
Redmond, 2.38 (1.81, 1969)
Roseburg, 4.35 (3.28, 1965)

Notice that the heavy rains extended beyond the Cascades and into central Oregon.

Tragically, five people lost their lives in mudslides caused by the heavy rain. At Hubbard Creek northwest of Roseburg, 4 people died when a mudslide roared through a narrow valley and engulfed a house. To the north, near the Umpqua River, a car was washed off the highway by a slide, and one occupant of the car drowned.

Interestingly, this intense rainstorm drew only moderate attention from the media. For one thing, most of the action occurred far from the state's media center, Portland. In addition, the event occurred less than a year after the big flood of February, 1996. Maybe we'd had our fill of flood coverage by November! When a third big flood occurred six weeks later (the "New Year's" flood), it too was almost overlooked.

Pretty ironic. The wettest day of the century, but it wasn't even the flood of the year!

<font size="2" face="verdana,arial,helvetica">

[ 01-06-2004, 02:20 PM: Message edited by: Born to be Wild ]

[hustlerrjim]

dopey bay dan how are ya??
nov. 96 was the big one ,thanksgiving day
13 inches of rain.
i will be watching for the ark to see if it has an electric motor on it

[TillamookChinook]

I certainly hope any flood this time does not match the '96 flood.

I was in Tillamook for a jobsite visit in '96 and the rain came down in buckets all morning, as hard as I have ever seen rain. For some reason I had driven my heavy old Scout, which was probably good because I had to drive through 8" deep water flowing across the road several times on the way back to Portland on Hwy 6. The culverts under the highway had plugged with debris. I could see the roily brown water in the Wilson right up to the bottom of the bridge beams to the Jones Creek Campground as I drove by on the highway. I have wondered if mine was the last car through before the highway was closed.

TC

[Born to be Wild]

Well Wild Hawg Dawg, guess we escaped that one,eh?

But I sure am glad I built the FV Ark!
The Kalama was knocking at my door at the cabin I'm staying at earlier today and I guess it's about time that I drive down the road and see if it is still there!

Just think if this front would have followed the other one!
:shocked: :shocked: [img]graemlins/1zhelp.gif[/img]
Dano