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Old 01-31-2008, 03:28 AM   #1
talk2elk
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Default Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

My brother (and new to ifish, bo4elk) has produced the Oregon Tag Draw Percentages book for since 2001. Last year the book was picked up by the OHA and sold as a fund raiser. I know that he knows a lot about the draw, he spoke at several OHA banquets last year. He got busy this year and didn't have time to deal with the formatting and printing so he just put it online. I like the format he uses, it lists the actual applicant numbers from past years as well as the trends. It also predicts how many years it will be before you do draw a tag. Anyway, its free and you can see it at http://ronwold.googlepages.com/


Bruce

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Old 01-31-2008, 04:26 AM   #2
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I bought the CD and thought it sucked........
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Old 01-31-2008, 04:26 AM   #3
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I get a not found 404 code when I try to open it.
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Old 01-31-2008, 04:53 AM   #4
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

It should work now,
huntinfool, sorry you didn't like it. It's been really helpful to myself & many friends.
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Old 01-31-2008, 04:55 AM   #5
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

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Originally Posted by talk2elk View Post
It should work now,
huntinfool, sorry you didn't like it. It's been really helpful to myself & many friends.

Yep, opened right up, thanks, but off to work I go!
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Old 01-31-2008, 05:33 AM   #6
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

this is just the type of page i have been wanting to see. lots of good info.
thanks bruce
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Old 01-31-2008, 06:19 AM   #7
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Great information....Just what I expected....I could die before I draw some of those tags.

Tell your Brother Thanks!!!
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Old 01-31-2008, 06:28 AM   #8
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Excellent. I have the last few years of the ODFW data myself and come up with the same numbers (for the units I apply for), but it's so easy when someone else does it!! Thank you!!

One note; I expect the actual drawing odds for 100 series (buck deer) to end up pretty skewed. Simply because, IMHO, there will be a bunch of people applying on the new rut hunts, which will take them out of the pool on the other hunts, especially the high-point people.

Nothing wrong with that!!

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Old 01-31-2008, 06:40 AM   #9
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Very good site... now, to study the area's..

Thank you.. good info.
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Old 01-31-2008, 06:59 AM   #10
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

great, thanks. 100% elk draw 88% deer
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Old 01-31-2008, 07:21 AM   #11
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I only have 35 more years till Hart Mt. antelope
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Old 01-31-2008, 08:15 AM   #12
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

FYI the info is also available on the ODFW site, you just have to dig a little. Info may change slightly since these are based on last years draw success rates.

http://www.dfw.state.or.us/resources...ary_report.pdf
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Old 01-31-2008, 10:07 PM   #13
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Thanks talk2elk! I have never been able to lay down the money for stats that are available for free but it is nice to have them put together like that.
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Old 01-31-2008, 10:22 PM   #14
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I put up the site on googlepages (hey, it was free...) and it has gotten so many hits in the last hour that they suspended it. I'll find another host that won't turn it off and I'll post the new location for anyone that is interested.

sorry about that...
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Old 01-31-2008, 10:37 PM   #15
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

OK, google has turned it back on. If one of their free pages gets too many hits in a short period they turn it off for a while.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:34 AM   #16
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I haven't looked yet, but does this mean the book won't be for sale this year?
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Old 02-01-2008, 07:15 AM   #17
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

It's not the same as the book, "Percentage Tags."

They're in the show, on the exhibitor list in booth 761, I think...Also a good resource IMHO.
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:56 AM   #18
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.



I get the percentage tags book.

The stats in the book are based on the publically available ODFW stats if you have the time to crunch the numbers.
But with the book you have it all done for you.

al
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:28 AM   #19
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

two different books, one is free the other is $14.95, same numbers, different math should give you a pretty good idea of what your odds are of drawing or at least a good place to start
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:18 PM   #20
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Bruce Thank you !


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Old 02-01-2008, 04:17 PM   #21
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Awesome. I only need two more lifetimes to draw!
Thanks for the great info. anyway.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:53 PM   #22
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

i dont see why you would need the book. I can do long division and i know how to get to the odfw web site. Thats all you need. It shows point summaries and who drew what with how many points.
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Old 02-01-2008, 06:41 PM   #23
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I agree, you can calculate the odds with simple math and a pencil, and you will usually be pretty close.
There are a couple of reasons why I run the odds each year.
- First, I look to shop my points, basically I like to see all of the hunts that I could draw with my point count. You could calculate the odds by hand, but there are a lot of hunts (hundreds in the 200 series).
- If I don't have enough points to be in the 75% pool draw for a hunt that I'd like to draw, I want to know how many years it will be before I will be in that pool. That helps me decide if its worth waiting for. This can be calculated by hand too, but its a pain.
- For hunts that take 7 points or less, using the 2007 report will get you pretty close (as you point out). But for hunts that take more than 7 points, using just the 2007 report could be way off. The reason is that people jump into these hard to draw hunts at the high end. They come from the x99 pool or from another hunt. You cant detect this by looking just at the 2007 report. You have to look at 2006, 2005, etc. Here is another way to look at it. Take a hunt that took 11 points to draw in 2007. Using the 2007 report, you scratch off all the guys that had 11 or more points since they drew. You then give a point to the guys that had 10 last year, and conclude that it will take 11 points again in 2008. But then 20 guys with 12 or more points apply in 2008 so instead of 11 points it actually takes 12. The way to catch this is to go back in time (maybe as far back as 1996 for some hunts). You look at who applied for a given year, then examine the next year and see how many new guys jumped in out of nowhere at the high levels. You move on to the next year and see how many new guys jumped in that year. Doing this for each year causes a trend to appear, and you can use that trend to predict how many new guys will jump into a particular hunt in 2008. For the hard to draw hunts with few tags, this sort of thing happens alot. But by looking only at the 2007 report, you can't make a prediction as to whether new guys will jump in, so the calculated odds will be lower than what they actually are.
-Lastly, I run the odds so that I know what hunts can be drawn as a second choice. The second choice draw is probably the most misunderstood part of the draw. If a hunt isn't 100% at zero points, then it means all of the tags were given out to first choice applicants and the hunt will not have a 2nd choice draw. The only way to know which hunts can be drawn as a second choice is to pretty much calculate them all.

But as you stated, calculating the odds isn't rocket science and in most cases, using just the online report and a pencil will get you pretty close.
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Old 02-01-2008, 07:50 PM   #24
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.



Thats pretty much my method as well. Takes some time but thats part of the fun.
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Old 02-02-2008, 07:07 AM   #25
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I for one greatly appreciate that you have taken the time to do the math for me. I especially like the estimate of how many years it will take to draw a particular hunt. I currently have 12 elk points and have for years have sought the coveted Wenaha tag. I now realize that it will be a once in a lifetime tag unless I hit the Powerball and start buying them at auction or live to be 136 years old.

Thanks!

NG

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Old 02-02-2008, 09:08 AM   #26
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

ditto on buying the book. Thanks for the free online info but I need the hardcopy for study purposes. Some folks say I'm as quick as a 3 wheeled race car
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Old 02-02-2008, 11:58 AM   #27
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Thank you, that saved me a bunch of time punching numbers. Not sure if I want to wait 15 more years for that Wenaha bow tag.
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:16 PM   #28
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DTSportsman View Post
FYI the info is also available on the ODFW site, you just have to dig a little. Info may change slightly since these are based on last years draw success rates.

http://www.dfw.state.or.us/resources...ary_report.pdf
This is the base info. and it is good info from ODFW............however, it is not the same info that BO4 Elk has given us.................Thanks Bo4Elk. Wheels.
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:42 PM   #29
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Take for example......(Wenaha bow elk hunt).............if you have 0 points right now it will take you something like 146 years to draw???? What seems crazy is that my boys (they are only 1 and 3), will never ever be able to draw this hunt (with preference points)..............only chance would be the 25%....and even that is a looooooooooooong shot.

This info. really puts the hunts/numbers into perspective.

lots of questions arise...............like, Is the hunting opportunity worth the wait?

Example: I think it will take me 12 points to draw my antelope (rifle) tag. Once I draw the tag and go back to zero, I will apply for bow tags that only take like four points to draw............so, 3 hunts instead of 1 over a twelve year period...............................The numbers can certainly be frustrating.

I wonder if ODFW will ever start the preference point system over...........Maybe tell everyone to use their points in the next 5 years and then start the system over????????????? I guess to give the next generation a chance..............probably wont happen I am just typing random thoughts without thinking................Wheels.
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Old 02-02-2008, 03:12 PM   #30
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

It won't really take 146 years, if your at zero points thats just how long it would take for all the folks ahead of you to draw, making the folks with 0 points the ones in the top slot. If your close to the top, the "years to draw" is accurate, but at zero or one points on a hard to draw hunt, it really is unknown (will they even have a draw in 100 years?).

One thing I've found since the draw was implemented, hunts eventually stablize. By this, I mean for any given hunt, the points needed to draw rises but eventually stops rising. In a manner, it stabalizes and the odds are fairly consistent year to year.

The really hard to draw hunts, like the Weneha, just haven't stablized yet. If I were to guess, I'd say it will continue to rise until about 14 or 15 points, and it won't go any higher. It takes tremendous patience and determination to apply for 14 years, and not draw a tag, and I think most people won't hold out that long. In particular, someone that does wait that long and finally draws probably wouldn't do it again. I have no mathmatical proof of any of this, its just a gut feeling.

I drew the Walla Walla archery 3 years ago, so I have two points and little chance of drawing it for a while. But I do believe that the folks ahead of me in this hunt will all be transferred out of the state or they are very old and wont be applying next year. I wish!

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Old 02-02-2008, 04:59 PM   #31
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

The difference between hunts like Wenaha bow and hunts down in Arizona is that all of Arizona is a draw unit, so the people waiting for the tough tags down there are going without any elk hunting while they wait. Here in Oregon you can still hunt elk during the general season while you hold out for that premium tag, so there's no real penalty for building up points. That's the reason I don't see the point numbers stabilizing for a long, long time for that hunt. The only way I see it happening is if many more units go to a controlled hunt, forcing people to use their points in order to hunt any elk at all. That scenario doesn't seem too far-fetched to me.
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Old 02-02-2008, 11:28 PM   #32
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Regarding the stabalization of the hard to get hunts, your guess is as good as mine. Of all the hunters that applied for elk in Oregon since the program start, and still haven't drawn, there are only 10 left (9 in the 299 pool and one sap that failed to draw because he applied with a non-res in a hunt with no no-res tags). There were 5x that number in 2007 and 20x in 2006. So whenever it does finally peak, it can be said that it is getting close. I'm guessing it will occur in the next few years, but could be wrong. After those 10 draw, we can state that all applicants have either recycled or are new (maybe 13 years new, but still new).

Regarding Arizona, I've applied there multiple times and drawn once. When we don't draw our top choice here in Oregon, the majority of us end up with a tag and a place to hunt, somewhere. You make a good point Ni!. They have the worst draw method that could possibly be concieved (INMHO). Anyone that applies in Arizona basically gets a ping pong ball with their name on it tossed into the draw bucket. If you have failed to draw for 15 years, you get 15 ping pong balls. But if the hunt you are applying for has 1000+ apps, the odds of drawing with 10 or 1 points is still next too nothing. Some hunters will apply their whole life and not draw, and other lucky ***** may draw every other year. Arizona's method doesn't seem fair.
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Old 02-02-2008, 11:43 PM   #33
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

thanks for your work Bo.
I have the ODFW app/point stats back over 10 years now. Like you said, you really need to look over successive years to see what's going on.
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Old 02-03-2008, 02:35 PM   #34
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

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But I do believe that the folks ahead of me in this hunt will all be transferred out of the state or they are very old and wont be applying next year. I wish!
That is something that people joke about but I have not heard any model truly reflect; how many hunters who are middle-to-high level point holders are forced to leave the sport for some reason (health issues in particular). That may not seem to be much of an impact now, but with a hunter replacement ratio in Oregon of .35 (i.e. 100 hunters leave the sport and 35 are added) the average age of the hunting populations is rising every year.

Preference points are always a fun topic.
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Old 02-03-2008, 08:03 PM   #35
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I'd love to know the age population distribution associated with the application data, but it is not available. l'll bet that it would produce some really intresting facts. We can track the fall in (apps that jump in to a hunt) and the fall out (apps that quit applying), but there is no information as to why these folks decided to do what they did. As long as the fall in and fall out is reasonably consistent, things are accurate. But if the average age of those with 13 or more elk points is 77, now that would interesting. I once had a college professor that said if you want a perfect simulation, you have to simulate the entire world. It was a bit eclectic, but it does make sense regarding your point on age.
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Old 02-03-2008, 09:46 PM   #36
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

What percentage of the tags does ODFW plan will actually be harvested? Like 10%?
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Old 02-04-2008, 08:59 AM   #37
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

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What percentage of the tags does ODFW plan will actually be harvested? Like 10%?

Depends on the hunt, but those trophy units are batting around 50% or better. That's why there are not very many tags given out.
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Old 02-07-2008, 11:17 AM   #38
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

This is great info, depressing but still great to see.
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Old 02-07-2008, 02:36 PM   #39
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Great link, thank you for posting it and thank your bother for all the hard work he put into it to share with us.

BTW - I am not depressed, I have 34 years for the elk tag I want. hmmmm I'm 39 + 34 = 73 years old.
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Old 02-07-2008, 04:38 PM   #40
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

It's okay Brian. Next time get F&S to give you a 4x4 wheel chair.Tellem it will need to get you out of the Snake river canyon.Just funnin ya. But after your done with it can I borrow it.

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Great link, thank you for posting it and thank your bother for all the hard work he put into it to share with us.

BTW - I am not depressed, I have 34 years for the elk tag I want. hmmmm I'm 39 + 34 = 73 years old.
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Old 02-07-2008, 04:51 PM   #41
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

GREAT INFO thanks much.
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Old 02-07-2008, 06:39 PM   #42
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It's okay Brian. Next time get F&S to give you a 4x4 wheel chair.Tellem it will need to get you out of the Snake river canyon.Just funnin ya. But after your done with it can I borrow it.

Are wheel chairs allowed in wilderness areas? If not I bet walkers are ok.
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Old 02-07-2008, 06:41 PM   #43
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

The Bow/Gun racks don't fit on the walkers as well.
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Old 02-07-2008, 07:14 PM   #44
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Good stuff, Thanks. Amazing to see what I would call wasted points, hunter uses 9 pts to draw a unit that only takes 3? Got lucky last year drew murderers ck bull with 1,1, and 0 pts in our party.
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Old 02-07-2008, 09:04 PM   #45
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

I'm glad you guys like it. I like it too, I'll try to get my brother to do it year after year & post it here.

Bruce
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Old 02-07-2008, 09:48 PM   #46
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Brothers... sheez. Can't live with them and can't kill them without going to prison.

In the past, when I published the "years before you will draw" info, if the number was above 10 years, I simply listed "10+ years". Any number higher than that really isn't accurate, even if the math says otherwise. The ODFW doesn't release age or demographics, stuff that could be used to get a more accurate number. They also change things every year, who knows what they'll do next year.

If you run the simulation into the future, you will get numbers like 146 years before you'll draw, but (hopefully) we all know that's not realistic. I don't want someone to think that if it says 40 years till they'll draw to give up on that hunt or that hunt series (like antelope).

I'll leave the "Forever before you draw" numbers in the report, but if its over ten years, just assume a long time, but not necessarily never. If its less than 10 years, and nothing drastic happens, it will be pretty accurate.

I'm also going to add "question and answer" page to the website. I've received tons of questions via email, most are simple, some are beyond me, but the ones I do know the answer to I will add to that page and continue to do so.
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Old 02-11-2008, 04:09 PM   #47
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

The numbers are very interesting, but there are not perfect. Two years ago, my group put in for a Wenaha tag knowing that it was impossible to draw. We wanted to gain a preference point and still hunt Saddle Mountain as a second choice. You can't pick a second choice with a point saver. We also didn't want the chance of drawing our Snake River tag becuase the outfitter would not have had room for us. We couldn't have been the only people to think of this.

Also, when people put in for a point saver, those points aren't figured into the percentages. Does anyone know the number of people who put in for point saver, and the number of built up points they have. Depending on the numbers, this could have a big impact on those hard to get tags.
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Old 02-11-2008, 05:57 PM   #48
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

The thing you guys who are holding out for the Wenaha don't realize is that the hunt is only getting worse, with all the spike hunters now in the unit before and during the big bull hunt. There will be tons more pressure on the adult bulls and now there will be high calf (spike) mortality. Now add to the mix the bear, cougar and now wolf predation.

You can have it.
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Old 02-11-2008, 08:31 PM   #49
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Etonfish View Post
The numbers are very interesting, but there are not perfect. Two years ago, my group put in for a Wenaha tag knowing that it was impossible to draw. We wanted to gain a preference point and still hunt Saddle Mountain as a second choice. You can't pick a second choice with a point saver. We also didn't want the chance of drawing our Snake River tag becuase the outfitter would not have had room for us. We couldn't have been the only people to think of this.

Also, when people put in for a point saver, those points aren't figured into the percentages. Does anyone know the number of people who put in for point saver, and the number of built up points they have. Depending on the numbers, this could have a big impact on those hard to get tags.
I know you can look at the ODFW website and go to the preference points summary for each hunt..........it will show you how many put in for a point saver but it doesn't show how many points they have...............Like Bo4Elk said, one way for the numbers to drastically change is for a mass number of people to jump ship from one hunt to another or a bunch of people with max points who have been applying for point saver every year, now decides to apply for a hunt..............ex. the new rut hunts. Just never know huh. Wheels.
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Old 02-11-2008, 10:48 PM   #50
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Huntinfool - your very right about the Wenaha, but I do think it is starting to become known. Last week I got an email from a fellow (I know his name but not his ifish handle) with a bunch of questions on the Weneha numbers. After looking closely at the high end trend, I noticed that it is the first big hunt to plateau in terms of fall in. If you look just south, that unit's big bull archery tag is the fast growing tag (at the high end) that I've seen.

Etonfish - we do consider folks coming from the x99 pools in the odds. If they decide to jump out of the x99 pool at a similar rate as in the past, then the odds will pick them up. There are 10 residents with 14 200 points, 2 non residents. (One of the residents wasn't in the 299 pool last year, but failed to draw). There are around 50 residents with 13 points, and 12 non residents.
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Old 02-12-2008, 06:28 AM   #51
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Why didn't you list Mount Emily or the Walla Walla bow elk?
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Old 02-12-2008, 10:28 AM   #52
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

They are listed. Click on the 200 series and search for 254R and 255R. They are towards the bottom. The ordering is based on the order as listed in the regs.
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Old 02-12-2008, 11:55 AM   #53
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bo4elk View Post
Etonfish - we do consider folks coming from the x99 pools in the odds. If they decide to jump out of the x99 pool at a similar rate as in the past, then the odds will pick them up. There are 10 residents with 14 200 points, 2 non residents. (One of the residents wasn't in the 299 pool last year, but failed to draw). There are around 50 residents with 13 points, and 12 non residents.

Thanks for the info. I was wondering how that got factored into the equation.
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Old 05-08-2008, 02:08 PM   #54
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Default Re: Oregon Controlled Tag Draw Percentages are online... and free.

thought i might bring this back to the top for the rest of us last minute guys!
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