Sun/Mon Forecast just got ugly!!!

Fishmstr · 07-26-2007, 06:55 AM

Hey guys,
What do you think of the NOAA forecast for Sun/Mon? It just got real ugly:frown: I WAS planning on towing all the way up from Cali, but that's a long way to only fish 1 day!!!
thanks for your help.
steve

skein · 07-26-2007, 07:00 AM

No, Sunday doesn't look real favorable right now, but we're still three days out and lots can change in that period. I'd have more hope if it were trending better for Mon-Tues.

I doubt I would make the tow based on what I'm seeing.

Of course someone around here, who is a pretty good fisherman, said, "If you fish the prediction, you'll never fish."

Skein

Fishmstr · 07-26-2007, 07:23 AM

Skein,
Yea man...what happened. It looked great until this morning...it looks like things are changing very fast! I noticed the forecast was from Wash all the way down to florence...usually the separate that out. Not sure what that means.
Any more advice would be greatly appreciated!!!
thanks,
steve

skein · 07-26-2007, 07:30 AM

Welp, I don't know what advice any of us can give, but here's what it looks like to me:

The predicted 12-16 kt wind should give us at least 2' windchop, so couple that with a 5' swell at 8 secs and it sounds fairly unpleasant and probably hard to fish.

Another question would be how well do you think your boat would handle those conditions?

Not an easy call.

Skein

Mypursuit · 07-26-2007, 07:32 AM

I expect a thermal trough may be building in off No. Cal. usually hangs in under the high pressure. Drags pretty good winds down the coast, long term forecast looks like by Sunday the jet is gonna drop a little which allows the alaska lows to set up above so you've got low feeding low right off the coast, good weather east of the coastals, unstable (unpredictable) winds and waves at da beach.....I don't know tuna like these guys but weather's been an unofficial hobby for 20 years...

Fishmstr · 07-26-2007, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mypursuit

I expect a thermal trough may be building in off No. Cal. usually hangs in under the high pressure. Drags pretty good winds down the coast, long term forecast looks like by Sunday the jet is gonna drop a little which allows the alaska lows to set up above so you've got low feeding low right off the coast, good weather east of the coastals, unstable (unpredictable) winds and waves at da beach.....I don't know tuna like these guys but weather's been an unofficial hobby for 20 years...

So what would be your unofficial forecast for Sun/Mon/Tues??? Would you tow a 5,000# boat 750 miles with this forecast?
thanks for your help!!! I've got to make the call by 4 pm today.
lat,
steve

CATCH AND EAT · 07-26-2007, 07:37 AM

It all depends what happens Saturday night out there. Predicted 1and5 during the night. May be okay to fish salmon in the morning on Sunday but..........I would not make it a special trip just to see.

Mypursuit · 07-26-2007, 07:47 AM

Unfortunately I agree with C&E, it's on the edge, if you're ok only fishing early and closer in for Sunday I 'd come ahead, if you want a clear shot at blue water off shore it's probably only certain for Saturday. ( course the only guarantee for flat water Sunday will be if you stay home

....) My boat's not big enuff to play with most of these big boys beyond 15 - 20 miles so I 'd rely on them... the next issue is going to be SST's and Chloro charts as the most recent winds may have pushed the fish out, I 'd check back for reports this afternoon before making your final choice...

Fishmstr · 07-26-2007, 07:51 AM

thanks...that is pretty much what I was thinking.
Man, I've been getting totally hosed by weather this year. I kid you not, we've had about 6 calm days down here this year...and they've all been on Tues/Wed/Thurs.
I am going stir crazy...and you guys

and stacking isn't helping me out much

Come fish gods...give me a break!!!

thanks again,
steve

fishindude · 07-26-2007, 08:21 AM

FNMOC site says good on sunday and monday. Wetsands says good sunday, windy monday. Seldom do all three agree. I usually go with wetsands and fnmoc. I don't trust NWS or NOAA

Teton · 07-26-2007, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skein

Not an easy call. Skein

Definitely not, with the forecast vascilating all over. The Navy ocean models show a marginal day for Sunday. The Wetsand forecast is changing too. Still three days out. We'll see.

Fishmstr · 07-26-2007, 01:14 PM

Greetings,
OK...I am suppsed to leave in a few hours if we are going to go. I noticed NOAA hasn't updated thier forecast. What time will they do that???
Any of the other forecast change recently?
It looks like things are changing fast!!!
thanks for your help

steve

Quote:

Originally Posted by Teton

Definitely not, with the forecast vascilating all over. The Navy ocean models show a marginal day for Sunday. The Wetsand forecast is changing too. Still three days out. We'll see.

earlybird007 · 07-26-2007, 01:22 PM

NOAA will update by 3pm or thereabouts....

WaterDog · 07-26-2007, 01:37 PM

It's updated now.

.FRI...N WIND 5 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FOOT. W SWELL 5 FT AT
10 SECONDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 5 FT
AT 10 SECONDS.
.SAT...W WIND 5 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FOOT. W SWELL 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FOOT. W SWELL
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
.SUN...NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES
1 FOOT. W SWELL 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES
4 FT. W SWELL 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 FT.
W SWELL 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 FT.
NW SWELL 7 FT.

Fishmstr · 07-26-2007, 03:07 PM

OK that settles it...we're heading up!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by WaterDog

It's updated now.

.FRI...N WIND 5 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FOOT. W SWELL 5 FT AT
10 SECONDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 5 FT
AT 10 SECONDS.
.SAT...W WIND 5 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FOOT. W SWELL 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 1 FOOT. W SWELL
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
.SUN...NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES
1 FOOT. W SWELL 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES
4 FT. W SWELL 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 FT.
W SWELL 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 FT.
NW SWELL 7 FT.

fishindude · 07-26-2007, 03:56 PM

Have a safe trip. Good luck fishing.

Reel Creel · 07-26-2007, 04:22 PM

Sun 1 and 5